Tornado Warning 59, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
436 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

.DISCUSSION...
NEXT 48 WILL BE DEALING WITH HURRICANE GUSTAV. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN THE SAME. AGREE WITH HPC
THINKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OFF OF GFS TOP 3 INCHES ALONG
AND EAST OF THE STORM TRACK. EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESS WILL
LIKELY GENERATE RAINFALL TOTALS 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES. AS THE GUSTAV MOVES INLAND OVER WEST
TEXAS...DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN INTO REMNANTS OF GUSTAV AND TIGHTEN
A MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS THE WEST PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL ONLY SEE A 10 DEGREE
CHANGE FROM NIGHT TO DAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO MOISTURE. IN
ADDITION...DAY TIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMS TOWARD
THE WEEKEND DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES. THE WEEKEND
WILL SEE NEAR NORMAL RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TO ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING WINDS AND SEVERAL BANDS OF
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS.  INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY TOMORROW MORNING.  GUSTAV SHOULD CLEAR THE COASTAL
WATERS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THE REMAINS OF GUSTAV WILL THEN STALL
OVER EASTERN TEXAS...WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS UP THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  83  72  83 /  40 100 100  90
BTR  73  83  73  84 /  50 100 100  90
MSY  78  82  77  85 /  80 100 100  90
GPT  74  84  73  86 /  80  90 100  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HURRICANE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST.
     JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
     TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND
     UPPER TERREBONNE.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON
     ROUGE...EAST FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE
     BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER
     JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
     BERNARD...UPPER TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON
     ROUGE...AND WEST FELICIANA.

     HURRICANE WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...POINTE COUPEE...ST. HELENA...WEST
     BATON ROUGE...AND WEST FELICIANA.

     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AND WASHINGTON.

GM...HURRICANE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
     NM...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AMITE...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

     HURRICANE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...HURRICANE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
     NM...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
645 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

GMZ530-550-555-570-575-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-
080>082-011615-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-
IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-
ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
645 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO COAST TONIGHT. THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES WITH OUTER RAIN BANDS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. IN ADDITION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING AND SPREAD ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTH CENTRAL OR
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA MONDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OR WIND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED FARTHER INLAND. THERE
WILL BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...MAINLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
RAINFALL TOTOALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 20
INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY RESULT IN MODERATE TO MAJOR
FLOODING ALONG SOME RIVERS.

HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS GUSTAV WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN
LOUISIANA TOWARDS EASTERN TEXAS.

THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS TO SUPPORT HURRICANE OPERATIONS
WILL BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
254 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 AM     HURRICANE        21 S VENICE             28.97N 89.35W
09/01/2008                   PLAQUEMINES        LA   AIRPLANE PILOT

            NOAA NOS WATER LEVEL OBSERVATION NETWORK AT PILOT STATION
            EAST...PSTL1...MEASURED 81 KNOTS OR 93 MPH. ANEMOMETER
            HEIGHT IS 24 METERS ABOVE SITE ELEVATION.

&&

RICKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
256 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 AM     HURRICANE        21 S VENICE             28.97N 89.35W
09/01/2008                   PLAQUEMINES        LA   C-MAN STATION

            NOAA NOS WATER LEVEL OBSERVATION NETWORK AT PILOT STATION
            EAST...PSTL1...MEASURED 81 KNOTS OR 93 MPH. ANEMOMETER
            HEIGHT IS 24 METERS ABOVE SITE ELEVATION.

&&

RICKS