River Flood Warning 36, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
754 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2008

.UPDATE...
TAKING OUT SEVERAL WESTERN PARISHES AND ALL SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
COUNTIES FROM THE TORNADO WATCH AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHERE THE
SQUALL LINE HAS CLEARED ALREADY. UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2008/

CORRECTION...
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY LINES SHOULD STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING
VICE SUNDAY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
DUE TO BUSY WEATHER MOVING INTO FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME WILL BE
BRIEF AND A LITTLE TARDY WITH PRODUCTS. WILL HOIST A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA PARISHES AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI FOR THIS
MORNING IN ANTICIPATION OF ADDITIONAL 2 INCHES ON TOP OF THE HEAVY
RAINS FROM LAST EVENING. PRECIPITATION CALCULATOR INDICATES A
POTENTIAL OF 4-6 INCHES IF TRAINING TAKES PLACE FOR 1-2 HOURS...AS
MAY BE THE CASE IN ALREADY HARD HIT ST TAMMANY AND WASHINGTON
PARISHES. RAIN SHOULD TAPER WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE LATER
THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. TRUE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING.

MADE NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO ADD
HEADLINES...INCLUDING TORNADO WATCH 258 FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  58  79  53 /  60  10  10   0
BTR  81  59  81  56 /  60  10  10   0
MSY  81  66  80  64 /  60  20  10   0
GPT  78  66  79  57 /  60  30  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ039-040.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR LAZ036>038-048-050.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ077-080>082.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MSZ069>071.

GM...NONE.
&&

24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
515 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2008

GMZ530-550-555-570-575-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-
080>082-041015-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-
IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-
ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
515 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF
MEXICO...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM CDT FOR THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA. IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL TO QUARTERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SQUALL LINE AND INDIVIDUAL STORMS AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE. THE
THREAT WILL DIMINISH WITH SQUALL LINE PASSAGE DURING THE MORNING.

AREAL FLOODING...
HEAVY RAINS WITH RATES NEAR 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL AND UPPER SOUTHEAST PARISHES OF
LOUISIANA...THE FLORIDA PARISHES...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND RESULTANT STREAM FLOODING
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. ACCUMULATIONS TODAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY
AROUND 2 INCHES TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 6
INCH RANGE WITHIN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.

HYDROLOGY...
HIGH RIVER FLOWS AND FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY FOR MODERATE ONSHORE
WINDS THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN NORTHWEST AND NORTH WINDS TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
IN SQUALLS WILL BE LIKELY THIS MORNING ON THE AREA LAKES AND NEAR
COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT GALE FORCE GUSTS AND HIGHER SEAS NEAR
STORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HYDROLOGY...
HIGH FLOWS AND RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS THROUGH THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER AND WEATHER EMERGENCY OPERATIONS ARE BEING REQUESTED TO
ACTIVATE AT THIS TIME. PLEASE RELAY ANY WEATHER RELATED REPORTS
PROMPTLY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN SLIDELL. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE. FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE A
CONCERN WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

24

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
803 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2008

LAZ060>064-031445-
ORLEANS-ST CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST BERNARD-
803 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2008

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING METRO NEW
ORLEANS AREA...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING SLIDELL
ACROSS LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TO LAPLACE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 25 MPH AND INTRO THE METRO NEW ORLEANS BY 815
AM. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE THE THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL OF 1.5
TO 2.5 INCHES MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND AREAS
OF POOR DRAINAGE.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST BROADCAST NEWS AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
815 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2008

MSZ080>082-031500-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
815 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2008

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI COASTAL COUNTIES...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
NEAR LUCEDALE MISSISSIPPI TO WAVELAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 25 MPH AFFECTING THE MISSISSIPPI COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH
1000 AM. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE THE THUNDERSTORMS.
RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
STREETS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM FOR ALL OF
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST TELEVISION...
BROADCAST NEWS AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
911 AM CDT SAT MAY 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 AM     TSTM WND DMG     10 N LIBERTY            31.30N 90.80W
05/03/2008                   AMITE              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN IN NORTH PORTION OF COUNTY.

0440 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BATCHELOR               30.84N 91.66W
05/03/2008                   POINTE COUPEE      LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN ONTO ROADS IN NORTH PORTION OF
            PARISH.

0625 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSW BOGALUSA          30.72N 89.90W
05/03/2008                   WASHINGTON         LA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES BLOWN NEAR HIGHWAY 21 AND
            HIGHWAY 1075.

0630 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ENON                    30.73N 90.08W
05/03/2008                   WASHINGTON         LA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SEVERAL SECONDARY ROADWAYS FLOODED IN SOUTH PORTION OF
            PARISH.

0700 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BUSH                    30.61N 89.90W
05/03/2008                   ST. TAMMANY        LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW TREES BLOWN DOWN NEAR HIGHWAY 40.

&&