Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1009 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

.UPDATE...

CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. CUMULUS FIELD
EXPANDING AND DEEPENING ELSEWHERE. 12Z KLCH SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY
UNSTABLE PROFILE WITH 500 MB TEMP RATHER COLD FOR SUMMER AT
-10C...SO WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW STORMS REACH NEAR SEVERE LEVELS
AGAIN TODAY. ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS AND
ONLY CHANGE IS TO NUDGE UP HIGH TEMPS IN NORTHERN ZONES A DEGREE.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/

SHORT/LONG TERM...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
THIS AM DRIFTING NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND RIDGES DOWN INTO REGION ALLOWING FOR A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION.

LATEST SOUNDING HAS PRECIP WATER AROUND 1.70 INCHES AND EXPECTED
AFTN CAPES AROUND 3500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT
OVER THE REGION AND A SOUTHERLY FETCH OFF THE GULF WILL ALLOW FOR
THE FORMATION OF THE C-BRZ AS THE DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN. HEAT
INDEX INTO THE UPPER 90S BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN SHORT...TYPICAL SE TX/SW LA SUMMER
DAY WITH A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS. BUT THEY ARE NEEDED AS
THINGS HAVE DRIED OUT A BIT OVER THE LAST TWO MONTHS.

THEREFORE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPS AROUND 90 MOST LCTNS TODAY.

ACTIVITY LOOKS TO END DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND REFORMING
OFFSHORE ALONG THE LAND-BREEZE. TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE LWR
70S BY SUNRISE WITH A BIT OF FOG.

TMRW LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY. BUT IT IS SUMMER AND ONCE A
PATTERN SETS IN IT TAKES AWHILE TO TRANSITION TO ANOTHER PATTERN.

AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE TAPERING
OFF ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AVIATION...
A FEW STORMS AROUND ARA/LFT MOVING SLOWLY NE. OTHERWISE A BIT OF
GROUND FOG THRU SUNRISE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  73  90  73 /  50  30  50  30
KBPT  91  75  90  74 /  50  30  50  30
KAEX  92  71  91  70 /  50  30  50  30
KLFT  91  73  91  73 /  50  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
430 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-
201-215-216-260930-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
430 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP TODAY AS THE COMBINATION OF
A WEAKNESS ALOFT...GULF MOISTURE....SEA BREEZE...STORMS AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME
SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE...HEAT INDEX INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S TODAY BEFORE
CLOUDS AND RAINS COOL THE REGION LATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SHOWERS ND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
TAPERING OFF A BIT. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX TO RUN INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

K. KUYPER