Severe Thunderstorm Warning 260, NWS North Platte, NE

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 052023
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
323 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

NEC069-052045-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0260.000000T0000Z-080705T2045Z/
GARDEN NE-
223 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM MDT
FOR CENTRAL GARDEN COUNTY...

AT 220 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR CRESCENT LAKE NWR...OR 25 MILES NORTH OF OSHKOSH...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 14 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CRESCENT LAKE NWR BY 240 PM MDT...

LAT...LON 4189 10252 4189 10249 4188 10249 4189 10245
      4187 10227 4186 10226 4184 10229 4180 10230
      4159 10246 4172 10260
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 297DEG 12KT 4175 10249

$$

GARNER

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 052025
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
325 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

NEC069-052045-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0260.000000T0000Z-080705T2045Z/
GARDEN NE-
225 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM MDT
FOR CENTRAL GARDEN COUNTY...

AT 220 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CRESCENT LAKE NWR...OR 25 MILES NORTH OF
OSHKOSH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 14 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CRESCENT LAKE NWR BY 240 PM MDT...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 4189 10252 4189 10249 4188 10249 4189 10245
      4187 10227 4186 10226 4184 10229 4180 10230
      4159 10246 4172 10260
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 297DEG 12KT 4175 10248

$$

GARNER

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 052046
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
345 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

NEC069-052055-
/O.EXP.KLBF.SV.W.0260.000000T0000Z-080705T2045Z/
GARDEN NE-
245 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL GARDEN COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN GARDEN 
COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM MDT.

LAT...LON 4189 10252 4189 10249 4188 10249 4189 10245
      4187 10227 4186 10226 4184 10229 4180 10230
      4159 10246 4172 10260
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 297DEG 12KT 4175 10248

$$

GARNER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1045 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

.UPDATE...

PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WEST FROM THE
SFC LOW INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
TOWARDS NORTHWEST NEB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH UPR 90S TO
LOW 100S DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NEB ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME WELL MIXED BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
BOUNDARIES...POSSIBLY AIDED BY A MID LVL S/W TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE HOT WELL MIXED LOW LVL AIRMASS SUGGESTS THAT
SOME STORMS MAY POSE A DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT...EITHER
IN THE FORM OF DRY MICROBURSTS...OR POSSIBLY BOWING SEGMENTS AS SFC
COLD POOLS STRENGTHEN AFTER INITIATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION FIRING IN THE TYPICAL NW FLOW PATTERN WITH
RIDGE AMPLIFIED OVER ROCKIES ATTM. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS NCENTRAL
NEB CONVECTION TIED INTO WAVE THAT KICKED OFF INITIAL CONVECITON
OVER MT ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO SEEMS TO BE SOME ENHANCEMENT
FROM UPPER JET MAX LOOKING AT LOCAL PROFILER NETWORK AND EVEN LLVL
CONVERGENCE PER VWP WINDS AROUND 5-6KFT MSL. ALSO LOOKS TO BE A
MOISTURE AXIS IN VCNTY PER GOES DERIVED PRODUCTS. LOOKS LIKE THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD LEAK OUT OF CWA BY ISSUANCE TIME SO WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT ATTM BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHER INTERESTING PHENOMENA
WAS HEAT BURST OUT IN WESTERN PANHANDLE WITH DYING SHOWERS FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION IN WESTERN N.PLATTE VALLEY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
DE-AMPLIFIED BY WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS MT/ALTA ROCKIES AND WILL BE
PROGRESSING JUST NORTH OF CONUS BORDER THROUGH THE DAY. ASSOC SFC
TROF/FRONT NOW IN SE MT WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN CWA TODAY WITH
ELEVATED THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE ALLOWING TEMPS TO MOST LIKELY HIT
TRIPLE DIGITS FROM VTN TO IML AND WESTWARD WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LLVL WIND FIELD. AGAIN LIKED A NAM 2M/MET
GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPS TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE A FOCUS
FOR HIGH BASED STORMS LATER TODAY. VCNTY OF UPPER RIDGE AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO KEEP SVR THREAT TO A MINIMUM...HOWEVER TO THE
EAST AHEAD OF BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
LLVL MOISTURE INTO NCENTRAL ZONES. NOT SURE BELIEVE NAM SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S LEADING TO EXTREME CAPE VALUES. CAP IS
A BIT STRONGER OVER THIS WAY AND EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE NORTH INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE ISOLATED RANGE FOR NOW...BUT IF
STORMS GET ORGANIZED ENOUGH BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATED ORGANIZED
MULTICELL/BOW COULD BE POSSIBLE. FRONT LOOKS TO SETTLE ACROSS KS/NE
BORDER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FARTHER SOUTH THAN PAST FEW SOLNS. BUT
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG FRONT WOULD FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA IN THE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COMPLEX
SHOULD GET GOING ACROSS NE COLORADO WITH EASTERLY LLVL FLOW IN
PLACE. NAM MOVES THIS ACROSS WESTERN CWA IN 00Z RUN...BUT SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SEEMED TO BE INVOLVED IN THIS MODEL AND GFS AS
WELL SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT POPS IN FOR NOW. THE ZONAL FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS AND NEXT STRONGER WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH FLOW MONDAY. AS A RESULT FRONT STALLED NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
BORDER LOOKS TO LIFT INTO NCENTRAL ZONES AHEAD OF WAVE...AND HAVE
PLACE HIGHEST POPS IN EASTERN CWA. LOTS OF UNKNOWN VARIABLE BETWEEN
NOW AND MID WEEK SO HAVE NOT MADE TO MANY CHANGES.

AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES
TO A KVTN...KOGA LINE BY 01Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE 10K UNTIL
AFTER 00Z SUN WHERE CIGS MAY LOWER TO 8K NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

GARNER/13/DDB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1150 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-061700-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
1150 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 /1050 AM MDT SAT JUL 5 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF A
VALENTINE TO IMPERIAL LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE NIGHT. DUE TO THE
HOT WELL MIXED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEB...A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...EITHER IN THE
FORM OF DRY MICROBURSTS OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA ON EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...MAINTAINING FAVORABLE INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

GARNER