Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2008

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IS LOOKING RATHER IMPRESSIVE ON THE SURFACE
CHART. AT 06Z...A STRONG 991 MB LOW WAS OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS...WITH
A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY TO MISSISSIPPI. THE
CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS LIGHTNING OVER
KENTUCKY...WITH THE CONVECTION OVER TENNESSEE AND POINTS SOUTH THE
MOST IMPRESSIVE. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WERE
ALREADY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST
TODAY WE SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL TODAY...WITH CAPES RANGING FROM NEAR 1000 TO 2000
J/KG...AND LI/S -2 TO -4 AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A DRY SLOT
BETWEEN THE PREFRONTAL PRECIP AND THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD HELP THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZE AS WELL. WILL MENTION A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE FORECAST AND IN THE HWO. WITH GOOD SPEED
AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS
WELL. EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR
AREA RUNNING FROM 10 AM THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING. WILL STILL SEE
SOME DECENT GUSTS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN THIS EVENING IN THE
EAST...BUT THESE SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS. H5
LOW WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY EXIT MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...WITH
POPS GRADUALLY TAPERING DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD. TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS LATER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
IN GENERAL...FOLLOWED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...WHICH WAS ALSO
CLOSER TO THE EARLIER HPC MANUAL PROGS. EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY FOR THIS PERIOD. THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING JUST EAST OF THE
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT. WILL TAPER POPS DOWN TO THE CHANCE RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM CLOSE BY. WILL NOT MENTION OF THUNDER
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS WE SHOULD BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SLOW MOVING FRONTAL WAVES. WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST HOWEVER. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS WITH EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT AND WAVES.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED

DAYLIGHT SHOULD PROMPT A MORE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SO HAVE DROPPED
THE WIND SHEAR WITH THIS ISSUANCE AND ADDED GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS TO
THE TAFS. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IS SPINNING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY
AND THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
HAVE TIMED THESE ACROSS THE CWA FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL CONTAIN CIGS AND VIS DOWN TOWARD IFR WHILE
THE WIND GUSTS BECOME MORE ROBUST. FOLLOWING THE FRONT...LINGERED
THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY THUNDERSTORM BEFORE SUNSET. LATER THIS
EVENING EXPECT THE WINDS TO SETTLE DOWN SOMEWHAT FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST BUT STILL OCCASIONAL GUST. ALSO HAVE BROUGHT THE PREVAILING
CIGS DOWN WITH ONGOING LIGHT SHOWERS BENEATH THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FROM THE STRONG AND DEEP SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA PULLING OUT
OF THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM....WJM
AVIATION...GREIF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
425 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2008

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-121100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
425 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREATS...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN
ADDITION...OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST
TO 45 MPH AT TIMES TODAY. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON TODAY.

WJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
441 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2008

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-111530-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
441 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREATS...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE TIME
FOR THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH AROUND LUNCHTIME ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
FLEMINGSBURG TO LONDON. TO THE EAST OF THIS LINE...THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE FROM LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
THREAT WILL PERSIST FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS TOWARDS THE WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA BORDERS.

IN ADDITION...OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS MAY GUST TO 45 MPH
AT TIMES TODAY. GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY BRING DOWN
SMALL TREE LIMBS...AND CAUSE DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION MEDIA
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES TODAY ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION. FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION...VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB SITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY.

WJM