Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
639 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2008

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM REMAINS THE POTENTIAL
FOR VERY STRONG WINDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
VARIOUS MOS MEMBERS STILL SHOWING VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND
AN APPROACHING AND VERY POTENT COLD FRONT. THE FONT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS...KENTUCKY...AND TENNESSEE. SEVERAL
OBSERVATIONS OF 35-40KT WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECORDED IN MISSOURI
AND ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO DROPPED AS MUCH
AS 35 DEGREES IN LESS THAN 3 HOURS IN MISSOURI...AS THE OB OUT OF ST.
LOUIS SHOWS. THE TEMPERATURE THERE DROPPED FROM 70 DEGREES TO 35
DEGREES BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND ADVISORY IS
STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH 6AM EST WEDNESDAY. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE LIKELY JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT LATER TONIGHT. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES DURING WHICH STRONG WINDS WILL BLOW. THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
OR INTENSE RAIN SHOWER THAT ARE ABLE TO FORM...AS THE DOWNDRAFTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL MIX A GOOD DEAL OF WIND
ENERGY AND MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE.

THE SECOND MAJOR CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FREEZING OF ROAD
SURFACES AND SIDEWALKS. MOTORISTS WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SLICK SPOTS
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...AS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW SLICK
SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS. TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT WERE A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN MAV AND METMOS...GOING IN BETWEEN THE TWO...BUT NOT QUITE AS
COLD AS THE OUTLIER NGMMOS. DEWPOINTS ALSO NEEDED TO BE TWEAKED A BIT
TO REFLECT THE RAPID DRYING OF AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
SKY...POP...AND WEATHER GRIDS AS THE FORECAST THERE WAS ALREADY IN
GOOD. DID MAKE A FEW CHANGES THOUGHT...TO REFLECT A BIT SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST TONIGHT
FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THE GROUND WILL LIKELY BE TO
WET AND WARM TO SUPPORT ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
GFS ONCE AGAIN AN OUTLIER AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS. GFS MOVES A
POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SEVERAL HOURS
FASTER THAN BOTH THE DGEX AND ECMWF DO. THE GFS LOW IS ALSO
SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND DGEX...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE ECMWF FOR THE
LONG TERM. PRIMARY WEATHER PROBLEM REMAINS THE PASSAGE OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM WAS SLOWED BY A COUPLE OF HOURS PER THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR FRIDAY MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION SHOWING UP IN MODEL CONSISTENTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS. QPF NUMBERS WERE A LITTLE LOWER IN THE FORECAST THAN THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING DUE TO THE FAST FORWARD MOVEMENT OF FRIDAYS SYSTEM. WENT
COOLER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS AND WARMER THAN MOS FOR LOWS
FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND NEXT TUESDAY...ACCOUNTING FOR THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED ON EACH OF THOSE DAYS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
LOOK TO BE DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. DEWPOINTS AND WINDS WERE ALREADY IN GOOD SHAPE AND
ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO BE MADE PER THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED

A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND THEN CROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. WEATHER WILL BE IN AND OUT...WITH WIDELY VARIABLE
CONDITIONS. TRIED TO TIME FIRST BAND OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS SEEM TO DIE DOWN A BIT WITH RAIN...WHILE CIGS
TEND TO GO UP. THERE WILL BE A SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTION AS THE FIRST
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT FURTHER TO THE
WEST. THIS FRONT IS MOVING VERY FAST AND THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS VERY NARROW...BUT INTENSE. TRIED TO TIME
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT EACH AIRPORT BASED ON OBS...RADAR MOSAIC AND
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA. BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME IS FOR THE
FRONT TO HIT SME ABOUT 0345Z...LOZ AROUND 0415Z AND THEN JKL ABOUT
05Z. BROUGHT A SHORT PERIOD OF THUNDER AT EACH SITE AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL FILL IN FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLD AIR SCREAMS
INTO THE AREA. WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAVE BEEN
HITTING ANYWHERE FROM 50 TO 75 MPH...MEASURE. SO WINDS WILL BE A
PROBLEM IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
PASSAGE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE GRADUALLY TOWARDS DAWN. IN SUMMARY...
A GOOD NIGHT TO STAY HOME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...RAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
452 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2008

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-301200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
452 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BUT WILL INCREASE AS
THE FRONT PASSES DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AND FOR A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED HIGHER WIND GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...
DROPPING WELL BELOW FREEZING BY DAWN. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WHILE NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED... ANY MOISTURE LEFT
ON THE ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY FREEZE...CREATING POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON.

ABE/AR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
919 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2008

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106>109-111-112-
114>117-300430-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-ELLIOTT-
MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-LEE-BREATHITT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN
919 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 28 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 9:20 PM AND 11:30 PM. DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARRIVES. IT SHOULD REACH MONTICELLO AND SOMERSET AROUND 9:40
PM. FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...STANTON...IRVINE...MOREHEAD...AND
LONDON CAN EXPECT HIGH WINDS TO ARRIVE BETWEEN 10 PM AND 10:30 PM.
WEST LIBERTY...SALYERSVILLE...JACKSON...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...AND
MIDDLESBORO CAN EXPECT THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORM WITH HIGH WINDS
TO ARRIVE BETWEEN 10:30 PM AND 11:30 PM.

HAL