Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
946 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2008

...CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS TODAY...

.UPDATE...SFC DATA SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NRN GA TO EXTREME SE LA
WHERE A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE E OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SE STATES WITH SCT STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE TO SE LA AND MS/AL AND GA. SCT
CONVECTION GOT AN EARLY START ACROSS THE CWA OVER SE GA AND
PORTIONS OF OUR INLAND N FL ZONES. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN
INTENSITY SINCE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS
THINNING OVER THE SE ZONES WHERE GOOD INSOLATION WILL PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S...POSSIBLY MID 80S IN A FEW PLACES. APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC INSTABILITY WILL HELP FIRE UP ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOW LEVEL JET AND 30-40 KT
SHEAR ENABLING SOME STORMS TO BECOME STRONG AND SEVERE AT TIMES.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY DUE TO TRAINING CELLS AND GOOD
DIFFLUENCE AT 250 MB. SFC CAPE MAY RISE TO NEAR 3000-3500 J IN A FEW
SPOTS. FOR THE ZONE UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE ANTICIPATED WITH JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND POPS. AROUND UPPER 70S SE GA
AND LOWER 80S NE FL. POPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM CATEGORICAL
INLAND SE GA TO LIKELY OVER THE S ZONES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
15-20 MPH EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES IN
NE FL...BUT PROBABLY STAYING JUST SHY OF LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME WITH SLY FLOW
INCREASING TO NEAR 15G20KT. ANTICIPATED CIGS BECOMING VFR AT
TIMES BY AROUND NOON-1 PM AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CONTINUES. ONE
EXCEPTION MAY BE IN SE GA WHERE CIGS MAY PREVAIL AT MVFR. SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE SLY AROUND 15-20 KT PER BUOYS WITH SEAS
UPWARDS OF 7 FT TOWARD THE OUTER WATERS. NO REAL CHANGES EXPECTED
FOR THE CWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  80  60  80  59 /  80  60  20  10
SSI  77  66  76  63 /  60  70  40  20
JAX  82  65  81  63 /  60  70  40  30
SGJ  83  66  78  65 /  60  70  40  40
GNV  83  64  82  62 /  60  70  40  50
OCF  84  65  82  63 /  50  70  50  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

SHASHY/ENYEDI/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1141 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2008

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-061000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1141 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH 7 PM...
...A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES FOR AREA BEACHES...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTHEAST AROUND 30 TO 40
MPH. STORMS WILL ADVANCE EAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

LINGERING OCEAN SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR
AREA BEACHES. PLEASE REFER TO THE SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY OVER
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1203 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2008

FLZ020>022-051645-
COLUMBIA-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-
1203 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUWANNEE...
NORTHERN COLUMBIA AND EASTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 1245 PM EDT...

AT 1203 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LURAVILLE...OR 6
MILES EAST OF MAYO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND OBRIEN...LURAVILLE...
BRANFORD...MCALPIN...LIVE OAK...HOUSTON...WELLBORN...SUWANNEE
SPRINGS...WINFIELD AND SUWANNEE VALLEY THROUGH 1245 PM EDT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE 3 MILES NORTH OF WHITE SPRINGS AND 2 MILES
NORTH OF JASPER MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

SHASHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1236 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2008

GAZ150-164-051715-
CHARLTON-WARE-
1236 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CHARLTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN WARE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID
UNTIL 115 PM EDT...

AT 1236 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES
SOUTH OF RACE POND TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOMELAND TO 18 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF FOLKSTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND WINOKUR AND FOLKSTON
THROUGH 115 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

SHULER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1245 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2008

FLZ020>023-051730-
BAKER-COLUMBIA-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-
1245 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
SUWANNEE...WESTERN BAKER...COLUMBIA AND SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON
COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 130 PM
EDT...

AT 1245 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BELMONT...OR 11
MILES NORTHEAST OF WHITE SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THESE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND SUWANNEE VALLEY AND
BELMONT THROUGH 130 PM EDT. SMALL HAIL...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN SUWANNEE AND EASTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH...AND THESE MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTING AND SMALL HAIL AS WELL.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

SHASHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
102 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2008

GAZ132-134>136-149>152-163-164-051800-
APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-PIERCE-WARE-
WAYNE-
102 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN
CHARLTON...NORTHERN CLINCH...BRANTLEY...SOUTHEASTERN ATKINSON...
WARE...PIERCE...SOUTHEASTERN COFFEE...WAYNE...APPLING AND BACON
COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 200 PM
EDT...

AT 102 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BAXLEY TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF MILLWOOD TO 17 MILES WEST
OF DU PONT...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL
ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND PEARSON...NICHOLLS...BICKLEY...BAXLEY...
AXSON...ALMA...MILLWOOD...SURRENCY...NEW LACY AND DIXIE UNION THROUGH
200 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

ENYEDI

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