Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
355 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2008

...CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS TODAY...

.SHORT TERM...INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSH TOWARDS THE SE. 00Z MODELS MOVE CONVECTION INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SW LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL ADVECT DEEP
MSTR OFF THE GULF ALONG WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH RRQ OF UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE STRONG LARGE SCALE
LIFT. COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER NE FL ON SUNDAY WITH
IMPULSES IN SW FLOW ALOFT AND LINGERING MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS
RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR MORE STRONG CONVECTION. COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS VIA AN INCREASING NE FLOW IN WAKE OF DEVELOPING LOW OFF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LARGE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL
KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW CLIMO WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...HAVE CONTINUED WIND SHEAR MENTION EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE WINDS MIX TO THE SFC. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR ISOLD CONVECTION
AHEAD OF MAIN LINE. TIMING OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE TWEAKED...BUT EXPECT BEST CHANCES LATE THIS AFTN
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AT MOST TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE FCST TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BETWEEN
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE AND FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  80  60  80  59 /  70  60  20  10
SSI  76  66  76  63 /  60  70  40  20
JAX  82  65  81  63 /  60  70  40  30
SGJ  83  66  78  65 /  60  70  40  40
GNV  83  64  82  62 /  60  70  40  50
OCF  83  65  82  63 /  50  70  50  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

ZIBURA/CARROLL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
530 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2008

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-061000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
530 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
...A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES FOR AREA BEACHES...

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

LINGERING OCEAN SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR
AREA BEACHES. PLEASE REFER TO THE SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY OVER
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO
SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ZIBURA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
620 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2008

GAZ150-162-163-051100-
CLINCH-ECHOLS-WARE-
620 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CLINCH...WESTERN
WARE AND NORTHERN ECHOLS COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 700 AM EDT...

AT 620 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DU PONT...OR 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HOMERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND DU PONT...HOMERVILLE...ARGYLE
AND MANOR THROUGH 700 AM EDT. SMALL HAIL...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

CARROLL