Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
224 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

...TORNADO WATCH 80 THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING...
...FREEZE EXPECTED THU MORNING...

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM KVDI TO KTLH WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY
HAS INCREASED OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH LI OF -5 AND
SBCAPE OF 1500-2500 J. TEMPS AROUND 80 DEG FROM OCALA TO ST
AUGUSTINE AND SWD. EXPECT STORMS TO BE MOVING INTO THE SE SECTIONS OF
THE CWA AROUND 00Z AND STORM ACTIVITY TO BE S OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT-1 AM. COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FOR WED WITH MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. NW WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH EXPECTED SO MAY BE JUST SHY OF LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WED NIGHT AND THU...FREEZE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE AREA SO
WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE AREA. SFC HIGH
NOSES IN OVER NE FL HELPING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT. THU...STILL
COLD AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO WED EXCEPT WINDS
WILL LIGHTER. THU NIGHT AND FRI...LIGHT FREEZE EXPECTED OVER
INLAND AREAS EARLY FRI...AND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EWD HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE UNDER RETURN FLOW FROM THE E AND SE.

.LONG TERM...(SAT-TUE). A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE
N ON SAT-SAT NIGHT BUT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MENTION OF
POPS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
FRONT SUN BUT SLIDES EWD AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH MOVES IN TO THE CENTRAL U.S. BASED ON
LATEST GFS HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND POPS FOR MON
AND TUE. BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO BE ON
TUE AS FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...LINE OF INTENSE TSRA CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH GNV AND
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. HAVE
TIMED THE STRONGEST WIND POTENTIAL IN TSRA THROUGH 21Z BUT EVEN IN
POST SQUALL SHRA ENVIRONMENT...GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL REMAIN COMMON
IN WINDS THAT MIX DOWN. ONCE MAIN SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH...MODELS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORT A 4 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD
OF MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WIND SHIFT WILL ARRIVE
BY 03Z WITH DECK SCATTERING OUT AND GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FOR WED
WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 KTS AFT 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...GFS AND NAM12 CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH
ADVERTISED VALUES OVER THE COASTAL WITH THIS EVENT...BUT STILL A
LONG DURATION EVENT IN STORE. STILL EXPECT WINDS TO REACH GALE
FORCE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF GUSTS AND ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION.
WILL NEED TO EXTEND CURRENT SCA THROUGH THU MORNING FOR THE
OFFSHORE AS GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TOP THE WEST AND STRONG NEW
ENGLAND LOW EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MAIN CONCERNS WILL BEGIN ON WED AS MUCH DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS.
RED FLAGS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THE FLORIDA PORTION AND WILL
UPGRADE GA PORTION AS WELL. ACTUALLY MORE CONFIDENT ON THE WIND
GUSTS OVER THE GA PORTION THAN THE RH VALUES...BUT TOO CLOSE NOT
TO ISSUE AT THIS POINT. CURRENT WATCH IN PLACE FOR THU FOR ALL
FL AREAS LOOK ON TARGET AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  37  51  26  55 /  30  10   0   0
SSI  43  53  32  54 /  50   0   0   0
JAX  44  55  29  56 /  70   0   0   0
SGJ  46  56  34  56 /  80   0   0   0
GNV  45  55  27  57 /  80   0   0   0
OCF  47  56  28  58 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-
     SUWANNEE-UNION.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ALACHUA-
     BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-
     HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-
     HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

SHASHY/DEESE/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1140 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-262330-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1140 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 80 IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH 6 PM...

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY...

A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...
AND LARGE HAIL. BE ALERT TO CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF HAZARDOUS WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR
LOCATION.

MARINE INTERESTS OPERATING IN THE COASTAL WATERS...BE AWARE OF THE
RISK OF HIGH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WITH THESE STORMS AND BE PREPARED
TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE STRONG COLD FRONT...AND A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

...WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING...

COLD AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DUE TO BREEZY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY MORNING WITH MID 20S POSSIBLE OVER INLAND AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

MKT/ARS

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