Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1018 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...

.UPDATE...SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT FROM NRN GA TO SRN AL
AND MOVING OFF THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER. RADAR IMAGERY FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH SQUALL LINE FROM CENTRAL GA TO THE FL PANHANDLE.
STRONG KINEMATICS WITH A WSW LOW LEVEL JET OF ABOUT 55 KT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE...EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH. CYCLONIC CURVED 300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
REMAIN JUST TO OUR N IN THE RANGE OF 130-140 KT. VIS IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF LOW CIGS AND AREA OF FOG ONLY
SLOWLY ERODING DUE TO RICH MOISTURE SEEN IN THE JAX SOUNDING BELOW
800 MB. EXPECT THAT BY 17Z/18Z WHEN MIXING WILL BE STRONGER THAT
MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE DISSIPATED. AT PRESENT TIME...LINE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CWA BY AROUND 17Z-19Z. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION LIKELY TO BE FIRING AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE AS IS SEEN
IN RECENT RADAR NEAR AND W OF TLH. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AT 7C OR
BETTER SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. LOWER RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES
ON NRN EXTENT OF BOW ECHOES. FOR LAKE WIND ADVISORY...SO FAR A
FEW REPORTS SHOW WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH IN SE GA. SUSTAINED
WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR
CHANGES ANTICIPATED FOR THE ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND AGAIN IMPROVING
CONDS EXPECTED BY NOON WITH AT LEAST MVFR CIGS. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD BE DECREASING AS SFC WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...MAY BE MOVING THE TIME WINDOW UP FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED. CURRENT OBS INDICATE
12-15 KT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS AS COLD FRONT
TRANSLATES EWD.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-
     SUWANNEE-UNION.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ALACHUA-
     BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-
     HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

SHASHY/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1140 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-262330-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1140 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 80 IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH 6 PM...

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY...

A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...
AND LARGE HAIL. BE ALERT TO CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF HAZARDOUS WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR
LOCATION.

MARINE INTERESTS OPERATING IN THE COASTAL WATERS...BE AWARE OF THE
RISK OF HIGH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WITH THESE STORMS AND BE PREPARED
TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE STRONG COLD FRONT...AND A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

...WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING...

COLD AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DUE TO BREEZY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY MORNING WITH MID 20S POSSIBLE OVER INLAND AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

MKT/ARS

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