Severe Thunderstorm Warning 307, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1005 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

.SHORT TERM...RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX CONTINUES OVER S CENTRAL AND SW GA AND THIS CLOUDINESS
APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING AS ATMOSPHERE WARMS AROUND THE EDGES.
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX WITH THIS FEATURE PROGGED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING
SLOWLY S WITH DIF PVA AIDING TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

12Z KJAX SOUNDING SHOWS NO EVIDENCE OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM
24 HRS AGO. IN ADDITION...PWAT VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO 1.87 WITH
MODIFIED CAPES OF NEARLY 3500 J/KG AND LI VALUES OF -8 TO -9. TEMPS
BETWEEN 600 MB AND 450 MB HAVE DROPPED BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES C
WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF -9 C. AS A RESULT...FEEL THAT BOTH MOS AND CCF
POPS MAY STILL BE A BIT TOO LOW...SO WILL BUMP THEM UP ANOTHER 10
PERCENT OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL ADD MORE TEMPO TSTM GROUPS WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS
THIS AFTN. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR CIGS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION OVER
SE GA.

&&

.MARINE...WILL BUMP NEAR SHORE POPS TO SCATTERED...OTHERWISE LITTLE
CHANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  97  73  95  71 /  30  20  50  30
SSI  93  77  92  75 /  40  20  30  20
JAX  96  74  93  73 /  40  30  40  20
SGJ  93  75  91  73 /  40  30  40  20
GNV  95  73  91  72 /  40  30  50  30
OCF  94  72  90  71 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

CARROLL/KERNS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
412 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-231000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
412 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105
EXPECTED...
...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL LEAD
TO HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE...MAINLY ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PLEASE USE EXTRA CAUTION IF
ENGAGING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TODAY.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE EAST AT 5 TO
10 MPH AND MAY BECOME ERRATIC DUE TO OUTFLOW AND SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR
THEIR AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
136 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

GAZ150-164-221815-
CHARLTON-WARE-
136 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN CHARLTON
AND SOUTHEASTERN WARE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 136 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER STEVEN FOSTER STATE PARK...MOVING
EAST AT 22 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND
STEVEN FOSTER STATE PARK...HOMELAND AND FOLKSTON THROUGH 215 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

CARROLL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
228 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

GAZ165-166-221900-
COASTAL CAMDEN-INLAND CAMDEN-
228 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN CAMDEN
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 228 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 7 MILES NORTH OF KINGS FERRY...OR 8
MILES EAST OF FOLKSTON...MOVING EAST AT 29 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND KINGS FERRY...WOODBINE...
COLESBURG...KINGSLAND...HARRIETTS BLUFF...KINGS BAY BASE...DUNGENESS
AND CUMBERLAND ISLAND THROUGH 300 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH
IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

CARROLL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
233 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

GAZ150-163-164-221915-
CHARLTON-CLINCH-WARE-
233 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN
CHARLTON...EASTERN CLINCH AND CENTRAL WARE COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 233 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTH OF
MANOR TO 17 MILES WEST OF STEVEN FOSTER STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT
12 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
MANOR AND STEVEN FOSTER STATE PARK THROUGH 315 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE
HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

SHULER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
237 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

FLZ024-GAZ164-221915-
CHARLTON-NASSAU-
237 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN
CHARLTON AND NORTHWESTERN NASSAU COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL
HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 237 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTH OF
RACE POND TO 8 MILES WEST OF HOMELAND...MOVING EAST AT 12 MPH. THESE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND RACE POND...
WINOKUR...HOMELAND...HILLIARD AND FOLKSTON THROUGH 315 PM EDT. HAIL
UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

SHULER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
238 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

FLZ036-221930-
ALACHUA-
238 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN ALACHUA
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 238 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER NEWBERRY...OR 13 MILES EAST OF TRENTON...
MOVING EAST AT 12 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND NEWBERRY...ARCHER...ROCHELLE...NEWNANS LAKE...
MICANOPY...GAINESVILLE AIRPORT AND GAINESVILLE THROUGH 330 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

SHULER