Severe Thunderstorm Warning 304, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL STICK WITH US OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING BEFORE
BOTTOMING OUT ONLY IN THE MID 70S TOWARD DAYBREAK. WE WILL CRUISE
INTO THE 90S ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES WILL RUN
FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. MORE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TOMORROW SHOULD RESULT IN AT
LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FOCUS WILL LIKELY EXIST
ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT GFS DEPICTS AN AMPLIFIED 850MB
TROUGH DIPPING THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
NOT ONLY ENHANCE ACTIVITY BUT ALSO MAINTAIN IT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE REGION. CYCLONIC
FLOW COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIP AND CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT MAX TEMPS A BIT...CLOSER TO 90 BUT
REMAINING HUMID.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE AS BOTH
SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN DRAPED DOWN THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
OF THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL CHECK IN AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS...MAXES IN THE LOW 90S AND MINS IN THE LOW 70S.

.AVIATION...HAVE VCTS AT NE FL TAF SITES INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WITH CB MENTIONED AT KSSI. MAY NEED TO INSERT A TEMPO TSRA AT
KGNV SHORTLY. HAZE CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE AREA WITH TEMPORARY
VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH NOCTURNAL
WIND SURGES MOSTLY STAYING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  98  72  92 /  10  30  30  50
SSI  78  91  76  88 /  10  30  20  40
JAX  74  95  73  90 /  20  60  20  50
SGJ  75  92  74  90 /  10  50  30  50
GNV  72  94  72  91 /  10  40  30  60
OCF  71  93  72  89 /  10  40  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

SHULER/CARROLL/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
435 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-221000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
435 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...VERY HOT CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES...
...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE WILL
LEAD TO HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES...MAINLY ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PLEASE USE EXTRA CAUTION IF ENGAGING
IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TODAY.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. GUSTY WINDS UP TO
50 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARD
THE EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OR BECOME ERRATIC DUE TO OUTFLOW AND SEA
BREEZE INTERACTIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH GUSTY
WINDS TO 50 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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