Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1022 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2008

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR LARGE
PORTION OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

.PUBLIC UPDATE...STRONG PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUSHED ALL THE
WAY SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA LATE LAST NIGHT. A FEW SUPERCELLS
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH REPORTS OF DAMAGE SO FAR IN
APPLING AND WAYNE COUNTIES. 12Z KJAX/KTAE SOUNDINGS INDICATE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S COMMON ACROSS JAX CWA. USING
T/TD VALUES OF UPPER 80S/UPPER 60S YIELD CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2500
J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS WITH WESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 30 KTS OFF THE THE SURFACE INCREASING TO AROUND 120 KTS AROUND
250 MB. THESE FEATURES COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY CONFINED BETWEEN U.S. HIGHWAY
82 IN SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND MAINLY NORTH OF KGNV-KSGJ LINE IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO INCLUDE HIGH-END CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR THIS AREA. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY SET UP
WITH LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS
SUFFICIENT MIXING. UPDATED ZFP WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY IMPACTING SITES KJAX AND
KCRG ARE BEGINNING TO DISSOLVE...AS EVIDENCED BY LATEST VSBYS PICS.
NONETHELESS...WILL LIKELY EXTEND MVR CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR TWO.  WILL NEED TO BEEF UP PRECIP WORDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NRN FL TAF SITES AS KSSI WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE FRONT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS CONCERNS OF STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL NEED TO INCLUDE TEMPO
VRB20G40KT 1SM +TSRA FOR ESPECIALLY KJAX AND KCRG AND POSSIBLY KGNV
AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...WILL LET SCA EXPIRE AT 10 AM...ALTHOUGH 9 AM OB FROM BUOY
4012 REPORTED 19G23KT. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TODAY AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE STATE LINE...EXTENDING OFFSHORE.
WILL REPLACE SCA WITH SCEC FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS...WITH STRAIGHT 15
KTS FOR THE NEARSHORE LEGS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATER TODAY...LIKELY INITIATING OVER THE MAINLAND BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

.PREVIOUS PUBLIC...
LATER TODAY...A DECENT SHOT OF MID LEVEL LIFT ACCOMPANIES A WEAK
SHORTWAVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH THE NAM CHECKING IN AS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE 0Z RUNS. AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR THE
GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT BUT
MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE RATHER LACKING AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTOR TO ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR...AND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE
APPROACHING 2K J/KG DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...30 KNOT
LLJ...AND FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET...IT IS
POSSIBLE SOME OF THE STORMS WILL APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT FROM GAINESVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE AND SOUTH...SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE...BUT REMAIN
BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BEGINNING THURSDAY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE
GULF...WITH STRONG LLJ (40 TO 45 KTS) SPREADING ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG
STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FORCING WILL BE
MAXIMIZED ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG FLORIDA/GEORGIA
BORDER. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN...POTENTIALLY VERY HEAVY AT
TIMES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THROUGH SATURDAY. EARLY
INDICATIONS PLACE THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER...INCLUDING JACKSONVILLE. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE 0Z ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS...ON
THE ORDER OF NEARLY 24 HOURS. AT ANY RATE...IT TOO DEPICTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN PRETTY MUCH THE SAME REGION AS THE
GFS.

LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BECOMES HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SOUTH AND ALLOW COLD FRONT TO FINALLY SWEEP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE SATURDAY. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL QUICKLY INVADE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WITH
CLOSED UPPER LOW RESIDING JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH TEMPS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CHECK IN AT RATHER COMFORTABLE
LEVELS TO MAKE FOR A SUPERB ENDING TO THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE. A SLOW MODERATION TO TEMPS WILL OCCUR GOING INTO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK BUT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

ECZ

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
937 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     TSTM WND DMG     7 SSW SURRENCY          31.63N 82.24W
05/21/2008                   APPLING            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWERLINES WERE REPORTED DOWN ON SHEFFIELD ROAD. TIME IS
            ESTIMATED AND BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY.

&&

ECZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
217 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2008

GAZ136-151-152-211900-
BRANTLEY-PIERCE-WAYNE-
217 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN
BRANTLEY...NORTHEASTERN PIERCE AND SOUTHERN WAYNE COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 217 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES WEST OF BRISTOL...OR 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF PATTERSON...MOVING EAST AT 36 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND BRISTOL...PATTERSON...
SCREVEN...HORTENSE AND BROADHURST THROUGH 300 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE
HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. IF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OCCURS A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

ZAPPE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
221 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2008

GAZ150>152-211900-
BRANTLEY-PIERCE-WARE-
221 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL
BRANTLEY...NORTHERN WARE AND SOUTHERN PIERCE COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 221 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WARESBORO...OR 9
MILES WEST OF WAYCROSS...MOVING EAST AT 37 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND WARESBORO...NEEDHAM...
WAYCROSS...SUNNYSIDE...DEENWOOD...HOBOKEN...RAYBON...NAHUNTA AND
HICKOX THROUGH 300 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. IF FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OCCURS A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

ZAPPE