Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
840 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

.SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH THE BIG PROBLEM FOR OUR NEIGHBORS TO NORTH
HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...MAIN CONCERN OVER OUR
AREA HAS BEEN THE DRY CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 40S IN SOME CASES OVER NORTH FLORIDA HAS RESULTED IN AT
LEAST TWO NEW WILDFIRE STARTS ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF
THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS SOMEWHAT OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS AND PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY FOR APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TO TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

HOWEVER...WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE FACT THAT MID LEVEL TEMPS
ARE SOME 3 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER OVER OUR AREA THAN SOURCE REGION
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...FEEL ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED TO LOW END SCT
AT BEST AND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. THAT SAID...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STRONG CELL GIVEN THE SEVERITY OF ACTIVITY TO THE
NORTH...BUT LOOKS AS THOUGH MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICS WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON ALL ITEMS MENTIONED ABOVE
AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

.AVIATION...WINDS STILL BREEZY FROM THE SW AROUND 13G22KT EARLY
THIS EVENING. GFS AND NAM SHOW CONVECTION JUST N OF THE FORECAST
AREA DISSIPATING LATER TONIGHT AND DONT THINK ITS NEEDED IN THE SSI
OR JAX TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. ONE OTHER ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
THE POSSIBILITY OF LLWS AFTER ABOUT 06Z AS A LOW LEVEL WLY JET NEAR
FL020 OF 35-40 KT COMES INTO THE NRN ZONES AND SFC WINDS DECREASE TO
AOB 10 KT. FURTHER S...LIGHT FOG AND SOME STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
NEAR GNV BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT DUE TO THE
STRONGER SFC WINDS.

MODELS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON WED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND FOR NOW HAVE
INSERTED VCTS AT THE TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR GNV WHERE TS CHANCES
APPEAR LOWER. BREEZY WLY WINDS AGAIN WED BUT NOT AS GUSTY AS THEY
WERE TODAY AS LOW LEVEL JET WORKS OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AT THE BUOYS ARE INCREASING AS ANTICIPATED. BUOY
41012 INDICATED SW16G19KT RECENTLY...UP FROM 8G12KT AT 21Z. SMALL
TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST ANTICIPATED BUT HEADLINES FOR SCEC NEARSHORE
AND SCA OFFSHORE STILL LOOK FINE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  87  63  89 /  30  20  10  30
SSI  69  86  67  83 /  10  30  10  20
JAX  68  88  67  89 /  10  30  20  30
SGJ  69  89  69  86 /   0  20  20  30
GNV  66  89  67  90 /   0  20  20  30
OCF  66  89  67  89 /   0  10  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

DEESE/SHASHY/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
915 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-211000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
915 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. IT IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MOST OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA...THAT THE LINE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUING DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1235 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2008

GAZ133-135-210530-
APPLING-JEFF DAVIS-
1235 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR APPLING AND JEFF
DAVIS COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 130 AM
EDT...

AT 1235 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 20 MILES
NORTH OF PLANT HATCH TO 15 MILES NORTH OF HAZLEHURST TO 25 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SNIPESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND PLANT HATCH...
HAZLEHURST...SNIPESVILLE...DENTON...PINE GROVE...GRAHAM...BAXLEY AND
SURRENCY THROUGH 130 AM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. IF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OCCURS A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

DEESE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
211 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2008

GAZ134-135-210715-
APPLING-BACON-
211 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR APPLING AND BACON
COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 315 AM EDT...

AT 211 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF
PINE GROVE TO 12 MILES WEST OF ALMA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND PINE
GROVE...GRAHAM...BAXLEY...ALMA...SURRENCY AND NEW LACY THROUGH 315 AM
EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

SHULER

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