Severe Thunderstorm Warning 388, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
410 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) MAIN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS PAST WEEKEND HAS EDGED SWWD
WITH WEAK TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY BRINGING BETTER WLY FLOW
TO THE MID SOUTH AND NORTH MS. SURFACE HIGH WELL TO THE EAST AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MORE EVENLY SPREAD ACROSS THE CWFA ON SLY WINDS.
MLCAPES ABOUT 2500-3000J/KG ON LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS WITH LIFTED
INDEXES ABOUT -8 AND 7-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6C. INCREASING 850MB WSW
FLOW OF 25KTS AND SHEAR AXIS ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP STORMS GOING LATER
TONIGHT AS MORE MCS ACTION UPSTREAM IN THE OZARKS REGION WORKS ESE.

PWATS CREEP BACK UPWARD TO NEAR 1.7-1.8 INCHES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
BEST 850MB THETA E AXIS FROM W TO E OVER SERN AR AND THE NRN HALF MS.
NAM12 AND NCEP WRF MODEL RUNS BRING MORE CONVECTION SEWD INTO OUR
CWFA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS BACKS
OFF FARTHER W. A 500MB TROUGH/WIND SHIFT ARRIVES DURING THE NIGHT
TO MAINTAIN MCS ACTIVITY UNDER A PERSISTENT ALBEIT WEAK UPPER(200MB)
DIVERGENCE ZONE. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED SLIGHT RISK FOR LOCATIONS N OF
I-20 TUESDAY AND BELIEVE MUCH OF THE RISK COULD WELL BE FOCUSED ON
TUESDAY EVENING FOR OUR CWFA.

DIGITAL MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS BETTER LOCKED IN ON TEMPS WITH PRIMARY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS WHICH WERE BOOSTED SLIGHTLY FOR NRN HALF
OF CWFA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN LATER TUESDAY. ALSO PREFER TO HANG ON
TO POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT VERSUS DROPPING ALTOGETHER./40/

LONG TERM(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR THE 12Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE
AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL AMPLIFY SOME
AS CANADIAN SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.
THIS WILL SEND A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT
WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY
FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK OUT AS AN UPPER WEAKNESS DEVELOPS
IN THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MODIFY SOME
FROM THE NORTH AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVES EAST NORTH OF THE
REGION. TODAYS MODELS CONTINUE NOT TO SHOW MUCH ENERGY PUSHING TOWARD
THE SOUTH FOR SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. SO WILL MAINTAIN JUST SMALL
ISOLATED DIURNAL POPS. A SHORT WAVE WILL COME OUT OF SOUTH CANADA AND
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP AN EASTERN US TROUGH BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERN STICKING WITH CURRENT FORECAST POPS...WITH
THE BEST POPS FOR AROUND THE TIME FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE AT WEDNESDAY.
ALSO KEPT CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKED TO BE ON TRACK. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
60S TO LOWER 70S./17/

PREVIOUS LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THE AREA WILL SEE A
SHORTWAVE MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE MID WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY SLOWLY THROUGH THE CWFA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE RATHER
SLOWLY...AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA FOR
WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD BRING MORE CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE AREA THURSDAY
BEFORE MOVING TO EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BY THURSDAY
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE AREA MAY
EVEN SEE A THUNDERSTORMS REACH THE STRONG SIDE AS THERE WILL BE
FORCING WITH THE FRONT AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY. WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS
POINT ON MENTIONING IN THE HWO. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
JUST SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA INTO FRIDAY. THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO
POPS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO RAISE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

FOR THE MOST PART...FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
DRY.  THERE WILL BE A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED.  OVERALL HAVE REMAINED
RATHER CLOSE TO GUI FOR POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
FOR THE LATE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING SMALL RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE STRONGER CONTROL OF THE REGION FOR
THE LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.  OVERALL HAVE REMAINED RATHER CLOSE TO
GUI FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. /14/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR TAF SITES THROUGH 03Z
EXCEPT IF ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOP NEARBY. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE DYING OUT BY 06Z TONIGHT. THEN BROKEN STRATUS COULD REDEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT FOR MANY PORTIONS MAINLY 10-14Z TUESDAY AS LIGHT SLY
FLOW CONTINUES IN LOWEST LEVELS. THERE COULD ALSO BE MVFR/PATCHY IFR
FOG VISIBILITIES EARLY TUESDAY AT JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION...MAINLY
WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS. OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED.
/40/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  91  69  86 /  22  18  19  35
MERIDIAN      69  88  66  86 /  12  24  19  35
VICKSBURG     71  91  71  87 /  25  15  19  34
HATTIESBURG   70  91  67  87 /  11  16  19  28
NATCHEZ       72  91  70  87 /  16  17  15  30
GREENVILLE    73  90  71  87 /  50  25  26  41
GREENWOOD     73  89  70  86 /  45  33  27  41

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

99/99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
241 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
271945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
241 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM
THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE THE STORMS FORM.

ON TUESDAY...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF A MACON MISSISSIPPI TO
BASTROP LOUISIANA LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 50 TO 60 MPH...HAIL...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL COMBINE WITH RICH GULF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO TRIGGER
THE STORMS ALONG SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT DROP INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STORMS COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW HOURS LATER TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

40/17

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