Severe Thunderstorm Warning 382, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
349 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) VERY SLOW-
MOVING ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE THE ORDER OF THE DAY WITH LOCAL
DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. DEEP RIDGING AXIS SITUATED ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL KEEP STORMS VIRTUALLY STATIONARY WITH A
SLIGHT SWD DRIFT POSSIBLE. BEST INSTABILITY POSITIONED ACROSS THE
SWRN HALF OF THE CWFA WHERE MLCAPES/SBCAPES OF 3500/4000J/KG IN
PLACE ALONG WITH 6-6.5C 5-700MB LAPSE RATES. LOCAL WRF AND NAM12 RUNS
DEVELOP STORMS OVER SERN MS SHORTLY AND THEN PROPAGATE THEM WWD THRU
THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGHER 850MB THETA E AIR 350K.
A WEAK SEA BREEZE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PORTIONS OF COASTAL COUNTIES
SHOULD EDGE UP TO ABOUT HWY 98 BY 6 PM AND HELP SET THINGS IN MOTION
FOR THOSE AREAS.

ON MONDAY...RIDGING AXIS SLIDES WWD TO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY AND
COULD ALLOW A WEAK TROUGH PASSING BY TO OUR N TO CREATE A SHEAR AXIS/
THERMAL TROUGH SWD ALONG I-55 BY LATE AFTERNOON. AXIS OF 1.65 INCH
PWAT ROTATES CLOCKWISE CENTERED ON THE CWFA. SLIGHTLY WEAKER
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SHOULD AGAIN KEEP THE STRONGEST STORMS QUITE
ISOLATED ALTHOUGH WILL MAINTAIN A SCATTERED CATEGORY POP FOR ALL
AREAS. MAX TEMPS FINALLY MADE THE ELUSIVE 90+F AT JUST ABOUT EVERY
LOCATION FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. READINGS ONLY BOTTOM TONIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT FROM ABOUT 69-73F WHILE HIGHS MONDAY AGAIN 89-93F. NO
BIG ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO MAV MOS FOR THIS PERIOD. /40/

LONG TERM(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...FOR THE 12Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE AND
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER PATTERN
FOR THE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL MODIFY SOME AS
CANADIAN SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US...PUTTING THE THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AT MIDWEEK WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK OUT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MODIFY SOME FROM THE
NORTH AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVES EAST NORTH OF THE REGION.
TODAYS MODELS DO NOT SHOW AS MUCH ENERGY PUSHING TOWARD THE SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERN STICKING WITH CURRENT
FORECAST POPS...WITH THE BEST POPS FOR AROUND THE TIME FOR FRONTAL
PASSAGE AT MIDWEEK. ALSO KEPT CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKED TO
BE ON TRACK. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S./17/

PREVIOUS LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COME
MONDAY NIGHT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE A SURFACE HIGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGES
WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ONGOING CONVECTION FROM MONDAYS
HEATING WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING AFTER SUNSET.
THE EVENING WILL BE WARM AND HUMID INITIALLY BUT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
FROM THE EAST WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWFA. THE RESULTING MID 60 DEW
POINTS WILL ALLOW FOR TUESDAY MORNING LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES MONDAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT WEST WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
RIDGING WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FROM THE
EAST WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN IN
THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN
DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND HELP SEND
A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION. THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND BRING THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OUR CWFA IN THE LONG TERM. THE 1030MB
HIGH NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST...BUT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
OUR CWFA THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HINT AT THE FRONT STALLING ALONG
THE GULF COAST BEFORE DISSIPATING AND HOLD POPS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWFA FROM LATE
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SEND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THIS FRONT STALLING JUST NORTH OF OUR CWFA SUNDAY BUT
THE FRONT MAY HELP INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES
SUNDAY. /22/.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER TAF SITES THROUGH 03Z
EXCEPT IF AN ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPS NEARBY. EXPECT ANY ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE DYING OUT BY 03Z THIS EVENING. THEN BROKEN STRATUS
COULD REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT FOR SRN PORTIONS MAINLY 10-14Z MONDAY.
THERE COULD BE MVFR FOG VISIBILITIES EARLY MONDAY AT JUST ABOUT ANY
LOCATION BUT THESE SHOULD BE VERY TEMPORARY UNLESS RAINFALL OCCURRED
NEAR THE LOCATION./40/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  91  70  88 /  20  29   9  27
MERIDIAN      69  89  66  88 /  13  33   9  25
VICKSBURG     72  91  71  89 /  23  26   9  25
HATTIESBURG   72  89  69  88 /  33  33  15  18
NATCHEZ       72  91  72  89 /  29  26  16  23
GREENVILLE    73  91  72  89 /  20  28  13  34
GREENWOOD     72  91  72  88 /  15  31  13  38

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
236 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
261945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
236 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF ANY STORMS...LOCAL
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS UP TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE STORMS
FORM AND DISSIPATE.

AN UNSTABLE AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE WITH THE AFTERNOON HEAT
TO KICK OFF ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS WILL MAINLY BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A WEAK SEA BREEZE WORKS
ITS WAY NORTH INTO THE AREA...BUT ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS MAY BE
STRONG. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THIS MAY KICK OFF A FEW MORE
STORMS IN THE DELTA AREA...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

40/17

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
423 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

MSZ048-054-055-252155-
HINDS MS-SIMPSON MS-COPIAH MS-
423 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER CRYSTAL SPRINGS AT 423 PM CDT...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 3 MPH.

PEOPLE IN COPIAH...HINDS AND SIMPSON COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES
OF CRYSTAL SPRINGS AND HAZLEHURST...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

BYB

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