Severe Thunderstorm Warning 305, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
527 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

...ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...

.UPDATE...FORECAST UPDATED TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH 253 AND TORNADO
WATCH 254...BOTH UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...344 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008 INTERESTING EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT SETTING UP FOR THE ARKLAMISS. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER WITH ALL MODES POSSIBLE. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND
TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SWRN MS AND NERN LA ON THE EDGE OF THE
H85 THETA E TONGUE. WITH THE LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING
THESE STORMS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO PULSE UP AND DOWN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. AT THE SAME
TIME THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO FILL IN WITH CONVECTION AS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES TOWARDS THE CWA. FROM ABOUT 22Z TO 05Z THERE
WILL BE AN AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY AND OTHER
PARAMETERS(EHI/VGP/0-1 HELICITY) ACROSS THE DELTA THAT SUGGEST AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR TORNADOES.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE
CONCERN. BY 02Z THE COLD FRONT BE APPROACHING THE NW CWA WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME THE NEXT MUCH STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL GET TSRA TO BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS ALONG AND POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE STORMS
SHOULD BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST WITH CONVECTION LIKELY FILLING IN ALONG IT WITH TIME. MID
LEVEL WINDS START TO BECOME MORE AND MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND
THIS WILL REALLY GET THE FRONT TO HANG UP ACROSS OUR WRN AND CENTRAL
ZONES.  THIS IS GOING TO BRING A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS THESE AREAS AND WITH THAT WE WILL ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SWRD AND SHOULD FINALLY
PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

AS FOR THE SEVERE RISK. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES(SOME
POSSIBLY STRONG) WILL BE ACROSS THE DELTA WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY... SHEAR...AND FORCING WILL BE THE GREATEST. THAT SAID
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
ENDING FROM NW TO SE. FOR THE METRO THE WORSE SHOULD APPROACH THE
AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A FEW HOURS AFTER 06Z. IF
CONVECTION DOES CONGEAL INTO A LINE THEN THE RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL
GO DOWN WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. AS SHRA AND TSRA PUSH SE THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
LESSEN WITH SE AROUND HATTIESBURG HAVING THE LOWEST PROBABILITY.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE SE EARLY. OTHER THAN THAT MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING SHRA INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS ACROSS THE EXTREME SE. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH AND
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOOK FOR SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION.  CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE DECREASE
THROUGH THIS TIME FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH MOST OF THE
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING.  SOME SMALL POPS WILL REMAIN DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST AS A
RESULT OF SOME LIGHT POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/DRIZZLE...BUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE RAIN FREE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
/19/

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
FIRMLY OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO FEED BACK
INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS ALLOWING A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...CONTINUING THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE CWA. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN A
LITTLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION CEILINGS
AND VISBIES SHOULD BE IN VFR STATUS. AS CONVECTION MOVES OVERHEAD
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW CEILINGS AND VISBIES COULD PLUMMET. THERE
WILL ALSO BE THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A FEW
TORNADOES. FURTHER SE THE SEVERE RISK WILL DECREASE BUT WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE. CEILINGS AND VISBIES COULD BE IN IFR STATUS FOR QUITE
SOME TIME ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO HANG UP. THE
OTHER ISSUE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE NW AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       64  79  52  77 /  94  42   0   0
MERIDIAN      64  78  50  78 /  83  57   3   0
VICKSBURG     62  78  53  79 /  89  34   0   0
HATTIESBURG   66  79  55  82 /  62  73  14   0
NATCHEZ       66  77  55  77 /  96  34   0   0
GREENVILLE    56  73  50  75 /  88  17   0   0
GREENWOOD     62  76  51  75 /  93  24   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ026>033-
     036>039-042>066-072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MSZ018-019-025-034-     035-040-041.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MSZ040>066-072>074.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ015-016-
     023>026.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR LAZ009-016-023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION: CAB
LONG TERM: 19/28

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