River Flood Warning 43, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1144 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008

.UPDATE...NEW TORNADO WATCH OUT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 884
AND WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...CENTER OF GUSTAV NEAR KTXK BARELY MOVING SO
TROPICAL RAINS WILL BE THE FOCUS LEAST ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS AS PWATS
HOLDING 2.5-2.7. PRIMARY RAIN BAND NOW APPEARS SET UP FOR THE
OVERNIGHT ALONG AND W OF I-55 ACROSS NERN LA/SERN AR. THIS AREA HAS
CONSOLIDATED INTO BEST REGION FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH DAYBREAK.
HAVE LET TOR WW EXPIRE AS CIRCULATIONS HAVE WANED IN THE PAST 2
HOURS...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TOR NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION IN
SRN PORTIONS. PORTIONS OF SOME PARISHES IN NERN LA ARE REGAINING
LIMITED UTILITY POWER THIS EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED WIND ADVISORIES TO
DOWNGRADE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS TO LAKE WIND ADVISORIES WHILE
REMOVING THE EAST PORTIONS. /40/

ISSUED AT 753 PM CDT...SHORT RANGE AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT GUSTAV WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ITS INFLUENCE AWAY FROM THE
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 2 TO 2.5 INCHES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SPELLS FOR MORE RAINS ON SATURATED
SOILS. CONDITIONS WILL STILL FAVOR FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS... HEAVY
RAINS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH TONIGHT AS WAVE AFTER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST AROUND THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV. MODELS
SHOWS THAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL 15Z
WEDNESDAY. WITH ALL THE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND FLOODING THAT IS GOING
ON WITH THE SPIRAL BANDS WILL EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM
WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS SHOWS THAT OUR CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SO HAVE CUT HIGHS SOME FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WENT WITH GUIDANCE ON TONIGHT...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERN WENT HIGHER THAN
MODEL POPS FOR TONIGHT... WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WENT
MAV POPS FOR THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT./17/

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       81  73  82  72 / 100 100  93  66
MERIDIAN      84  71  84  71 / 100  96  92  64
VICKSBURG     81  73  80  72 / 100 100  94  69
HATTIESBURG   84  74  84  73 / 100  94  91  67
NATCHEZ       82  75  82  73 / 100 100  93  72
GREENVILLE    82  71  81  71 / 100 100  97  72
GREENWOOD     81  72  81  72 / 100 100  92  68

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MSZ034>037-
     040>045-047>066-072>074.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>028-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>063.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

99/99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
207 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008

MSZ035>037-040>045-048>052-054>058-062>066-072>074-031915-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-
NESHOBA-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-
JASPER-CLARKE-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
207 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

THE RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF GUSTAV MAY LEAD
TO TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING
OCCURS. WHEN APPROACHING WATER IN A VEHICLE...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BREEZY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE...AS THE
REMNANTS OF GUSTAV STALL OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.

THE RISK OF TORNADOES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
55. MORE FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV MAY LINGER OVER THE ARKLATEX WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...CONTINUING THE RISK OF TORNADOES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY LEAD TO MORE
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ047-053-059>061-031915-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-WARREN-CLAIBORNE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
207 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
PORTIONS OF WEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS NEAR 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE...AS
THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION...PERIODS
OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. FLOODING IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. BE
PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING OCCURS. WHEN
APPROACHING WATER IN A VEHICLE...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

THE RISK OF TORNADOES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS GUSTAV STALLS OVER
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS
MAY LEAD TO TORNADOES. MORE FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV MAY LINGER OVER THE ARKLATEX WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...CONTINUING THE RISK OF TORNADOES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
MORE FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>034-038-039-046-031915-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-
WINSTON-NOXUBEE-KEMPER-
207 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

THE RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...AS GUSTAV SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWEST. ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE
OUTER RAIN BANDS MAY LEAD TO TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE RISK OF TORNADOES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...AS GUSTAV STALLS OVER
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS
MAY LEAD TO TORNADOES. MORE FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV MAY LINGER OVER THE ARKLATEX WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...CONTINUING THE RISK OF TORNADOES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
MORE FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
716 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     FLOOD            ST. JOSEPH              31.92N 91.24W
09/02/2008                   TENSAS             LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER COVERING A FEW ROADS.

&&

WILSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
717 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     FLOOD            BASTROP                 32.77N 91.91W
09/02/2008                   MOREHOUSE          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER COVERING A FEW ROADS.

&&

WILSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
727 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 AM     TROPICAL STORM   CROSSETT                33.13N 91.97W
09/02/2008                   ASHLEY             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY.

&&

WILSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
956 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008

LAZ024>026-MSZ060-030340-
TENSAS LA-CATAHOULA LA-CONCORDIA LA-ADAMS MS-
956 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER LARTO AT 956 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 34 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN ADAMS COUNTY...AND NORTHERN CONCORDIA...
CATAHOULA AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TENSAS PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

BYB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1110 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HARRISONBURG            31.77N 91.82W
09/02/2008                   CATAHOULA          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TRAILER HOME WAS BLOWN OVER ON ITS SIDE IN EAST
            HARRISBURG. ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF A TRAILER HOME ON HWY
            3101. SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN
            THE SANDY LAKE AREA. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

JFAIRLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1147 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1143 PM     FLOOD            WINNSBORO               32.16N 91.72W
09/02/2008                   FRANKLIN           LA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6 INCHES OF WATER COVERING HIGHWAY 4 IN WINNSBORO. ALSO
            SEVERAL STREETS IN AND AROUND WINNSBORO ARE BLOCKADED BY
            LOCAL OFFICIALS. RELAYED BY WFO SHREVEPORT.

1143 PM     FLOOD            WINNSBORO               32.16N 91.72W
09/02/2008                   FRANKLIN           LA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER AT WILSON ROAD AND HIGHWAY 4.
            RELAYED BY WFO SHREVEPORT.

&&

JCULIN