Flash Flood Warning 101, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
240 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008

...WET PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK FROM
THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV...

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS REMNANTS OF GUSTAV
SPINNING OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...MOVING QUITE SLOWLY NORTHWEST. SPIRAL
BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND SOME ISOLATED
TORNADOES. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF FLOODING IN SOME OF OUR EAST
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

SHORT RANGE AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT GUSTAV WILL BE SLOW
TO MOVE ITS INFLUENCE AWAY FROM THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE
TO BE AROUND 2 TO 2.5 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SPELLS FOR MORE
RAINS ON SATURATED SOILS. CONDITIONS WILL STILL FAVOR FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS...
HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH TONIGHT AS WAVE AFTER WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST AROUND THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV.
MODELS SHOWS THAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL
15Z WEDNESDAY. SO WILL HAVE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN DELTA COUNTIES
AND PARISHES AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES AROUND THE INTERSTATE 55
CORRIDOR UNTIL 15Z WEDNESDAY. WITH ALL THE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND FLOODING
THAT IS GOING ON WITH THE SPIRAL BANDS WILL EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL
7 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS SHOWS THAT OUR CHANCES OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SO HAVE CUT HIGHS SOME FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AND WENT WITH GUIDANCE ON TONIGHT...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERN WENT HIGHER THAN MODEL POPS FOR TONIGHT...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WENT MAV POPS FOR THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT.
/17/

&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUED THE RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV WERE NOT MOVING VERY MUCH AND THE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY STALL JUST WEST OF THE AREA. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH...WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST OVERNIGHT...STILL EXPECTING PATCHY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...SO
MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LEFT GUSTS AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS IN THE EAST HAVE TAPERED OFF SLIGHTLY...BUT SPEEDS AT
MEI/HBG/GTR SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 15KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALSO./7/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT.

LONG TERM...THE LONG TERM AFTER THU SEEMS MOSTLY INSIGNIFICANT BUT
EYES WILL BE TURNING TWRDS THE TROPICS ONCE AGAIN. THE MDLS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV WILL FINALLY START TO
PULL OUT OF THE ARKLATEX REGION ON THU. AFTER THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE
IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO HELP GET ISLTD ACTIVITY OFF AND ON. THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED I WILL GENERALLY STICK WITH THE GUI VALUES...THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE WED NIGHT AND THU WHERE I WILL GO ABOUT 10% OR SO
ABV GUI POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND EVEN CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED(AT THIS TIME) IS THU. IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WET DAY AS A BAND OF SHRA AND ISLTD TSRA DEVELOP.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES B/T THE MDLS AS TO WHERE THIS WILL N-S
BAND OF RAIN WILL OCCUR BUT IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS BAND COULD BRING ANOTHER 1-2
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NW AND EXACERBATE ANY FLOODING ISSUES THAT
MAY BE OUT THERE FROM TUE AND WED RAINS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS AND IF THE FFA IS EXTENDED INTO WED IT MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
FURTHER INTO THU FOR A FEW AREAS. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS AND WHERE THIS BAND OF RAIN DEVELOPS ON THU
WHICH IS UNCERTAIN.

AFTER THU WE WILL MOVE INTO WEAK SWRLY FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR LIGHT SHRA AND MAYBE A FEW TSRA TO DEVELOP EACH DAY BUT
THE RISK OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OVER. OF NOTE...EVEN THOUGH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GUSTAV AND ITS REMNANTS WILL AFFECT US FOR THE NEXT 60
HRS WE WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC AS
TROPICAL STORM IKE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL HAVE A SHOT OF GETTING INTO THE GULF. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  82  72  86 / 100  93  66  49
MERIDIAN      71  84  71  88 /  96  92  64  49
VICKSBURG     73  80  72  85 / 100  94  69  44
HATTIESBURG   74  84  73  87 /  94  91  67  48
NATCHEZ       75  82  73  83 / 100  93  72  44
GREENVILLE    71  81  71  83 / 100  97  72  45
GREENWOOD     72  81  72  84 / 100  92  68  51

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AT 7 PM FOR
     MSZ034>037-040>045-047>066-072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-
     035-040-041.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ026>028-036-
     037-042>044-047>050-053>056-059>065-072-073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AT 7 PM FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AT 7 PM FOR ARZ074-075.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
207 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008

MSZ035>037-040>045-048>052-054>058-062>066-072>074-031915-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-
NESHOBA-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-
JASPER-CLARKE-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
207 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

THE RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF GUSTAV MAY LEAD
TO TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING
OCCURS. WHEN APPROACHING WATER IN A VEHICLE...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BREEZY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE...AS THE
REMNANTS OF GUSTAV STALL OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.

THE RISK OF TORNADOES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
55. MORE FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV MAY LINGER OVER THE ARKLATEX WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...CONTINUING THE RISK OF TORNADOES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY LEAD TO MORE
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ047-053-059>061-031915-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-WARREN-CLAIBORNE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
207 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
PORTIONS OF WEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS NEAR 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE...AS
THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION...PERIODS
OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. FLOODING IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. BE
PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING OCCURS. WHEN
APPROACHING WATER IN A VEHICLE...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

THE RISK OF TORNADOES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS GUSTAV STALLS OVER
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS
MAY LEAD TO TORNADOES. MORE FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV MAY LINGER OVER THE ARKLATEX WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...CONTINUING THE RISK OF TORNADOES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
MORE FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>034-038-039-046-031915-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-
WINSTON-NOXUBEE-KEMPER-
207 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

THE RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...AS GUSTAV SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWEST. ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE
OUTER RAIN BANDS MAY LEAD TO TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE RISK OF TORNADOES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...AS GUSTAV STALLS OVER
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS
MAY LEAD TO TORNADOES. MORE FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV MAY LINGER OVER THE ARKLATEX WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...CONTINUING THE RISK OF TORNADOES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
MORE FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
422 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     TORNADO          3 NE WESSON             31.73N 90.36W
09/02/2008                   COPIAH             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN...PROBABLE TORNADO BASED ON RADAR.
            UPDATE...TREES HAVE FALLEN ON A HOUSE NEAR RYAN AND
            DEASON ROAD.

&&

WILSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
554 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     TORNADO          3 NE WESSON             31.73N 90.36W
09/02/2008                   COPIAH             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN...PROBABLE TORNADO BASED ON RADAR.
            UPDATED...TREES HAVE FALLEN ON A HOUSE NEAR RYAN AND
            DEASON ROAD. NUMEROUS TREES WERE UPROOTED AND SNAPPED.

&&

WILSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
555 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 W BROOKHAVEN          31.58N 90.46W
09/02/2008                   LINCOLN            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A FUNNEL CLOUD

&&

WILSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
609 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     TROPICAL STORM   MONTEREY                31.45N 91.72W
09/01/2008                   CATAHOULA          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MOBILE HOME DAMAGED. ROOF DAMAGE.

&&

WILSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
626 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HEAVY RAIN       EUDORA                  33.12N 91.26W
09/02/2008  M5.50 INCH       CHICOT             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SINCE 7 AM.

&&

WILSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
627 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     FLOOD            EUDORA                  33.12N 91.26W
09/02/2008                   CHICOT             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS ARE CLOSED ACROSS CHICOT COUNTY.

&&

WILSON