Flash Flood Warning 123, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 092200
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
500 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008

MSC053-125-151-092210-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.W.0123.000000T0000Z-080909T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WASHINGTON MS-HUMPHREYS MS-SHARKEY MS-
500 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SHARKEY...HUMPHREYS
AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

LAT...LON 3326 9044 3324 9041 3325 9039 3324 9038
      3312 9039 3311 9041 3312 9042 3311 9042
      3293 9091 3328 9091

$$

BANNAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...

NEAR TERM: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST GRIDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS
NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY MOIST AIR (2.12 PRECIPITABLE
WATER ON 12Z JAN RAOB) IS AVAILABLE ALONG WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES >
1500 J/KG WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. STRONG INSOLATION HAS
INCREASED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THIS IS
LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS AS WE GO THROUGH
THE AFTN. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 15-20KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL
CLUSTERS...GIVEN STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN STRONG
WORDING IN THE HWO.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME AND EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BE
SMALLER. SUMMER-LIKE HEAT WILL CONTINUE FOR WED AFTN AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.

FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...IKE IS STILL THE BIG CONCERN AS IT IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL AND RECURVING NORTH TO NE IN THE WESTERLIES. IT APPEARS
LANDFALL WILL BE SOMEWHERE ON THE TEXAS COAST...BUT WHAT IKE DOES
AFTER LANDFALL WILL HAVE THE BIGGEST IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. BASED ON
CURRENT HPC FORECAST AT DAYS 6/7...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
COULD EXPECT A RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW TORNADOES. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IKE COULD TURN A LITTLE MORE SHARPLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AFFECT MORE OF THE AREA SO ALL RESIDENTS IN THE ARKLAMISS
SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IKE FORECAST UPDATES. IN ANY CASE...
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW NORTH OF IKE INCREASES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THOSE
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS TO GWO/GLH/GTR AND JAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. IFR CONDITIONS
WITH 1 TO 2 HUNDRED FOOT CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE VERY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING IN STRATUS AND FOG OVER MOST SITES./15/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

EC/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
245 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
101945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
245 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

PERSONS IN THE ARKLAMISS SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES
CONCERNING HURRICANE IKE WHICH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY. IKE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
ON THE TEXAS COAST SATURDAY AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH
THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS. ON THIS PATH...PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WOULD STAND TO RECEIVE THE
GREATEST IMPACTS FROM IKE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...COULD BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE IKE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

EC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
119 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008

MSZ028-029-091920-
WEBSTER MS-MONTGOMERY MS-
119 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
NORTHERN MONTGOMERY AND WEBSTER COUNTIES. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
EXTENDS FROM 3 MILES SOUTH OF WINONA TO WALTHAL TO MANTEE. RAINFALL
RATES WERE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
WATER TO COLLECT ON ROADWAYS AND IN OTHER LOW LYING AREAS.

PEOPLE IN MONTGOMERY AND WEBSTER COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

7

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
135 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008

MSZ032-091905-
CHOCTAW MS-
135 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WERE NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER TOLLISON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE WATER TO
COLLECT ON ROADWAYS AND IN OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RAINFALL RATES
WERE NEAR 2 INCHES PER HOUR...IF RAIN CONTINUES AT THIS RATE FLASH
FLOODING MAY DEVELOP.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL CHOCTAW COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

7