Flash Flood Warning 122, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 092000
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008

MSC019-097-155-092145-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0122.000000T0000Z-080909T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WEBSTER MS-MONTGOMERY MS-CHOCTAW MS-
300 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR
CHOCTAW...MONTGOMERY AND WEBSTER COUNTIES...

AT 257 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGIST CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER
THE WARNED AREA. RAINFALL RATES REMAIN FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES. THE LARGEST 
RAINFALL TOTALS WERE NEAR 3.75 INCHES AROUND TOLLISON AND NEAR 3.5 
INCHES AROUND ALVA. THE HEAVY RAIN WAS SHIFTING EAST...HOWEVER MORE 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WARNED AREA OVER 
THE NEXT 2 HOURS. 

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SHERWOOD...
CUMBERLAND...CLARKSON...BELLEFONTAINE...EMBRY...LODI...SWEATMAN...
WINONA...MATHISTON...KILMICHAEL...EUPORA AND DUCK HILL

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3357 8902 3358 8909 3322 8911 3322 8921
      3313 8921 3313 8930 3330 8931 3331 8964
      3342 8963 3343 8979 3367 8972 3367 8951
      3371 8947 3374 8904

$$

7

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 092120
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
420 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008

MSC019-097-155-092129-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.W.0122.000000T0000Z-080909T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WEBSTER MS-MONTGOMERY MS-CHOCTAW MS-
420 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR CHOCTAW...
MONTGOMERY AND WEBSTER COUNTIES...

LAT...LON 3357 8902 3358 8909 3322 8911 3322 8921
      3313 8921 3313 8930 3330 8931 3331 8964
      3342 8963 3343 8979 3367 8972 3367 8951
      3371 8947 3374 8904

$$

BANNAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1115 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATE: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST GRIDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS
NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY MOIST AIR (2.12 PRECIPITABLE
WATER ON 12Z JAN RAOB) IS AVAILABLE ALONG WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES >
1500 J/KG WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. STRONG INSOLATION SOUTH
OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND EXPECT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS GO INTO THE AFTN. 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 15-20KTS WOULD SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS...GIVEN STRENGTH
OF INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN STRONG WORDING IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE...
HAVE BOOSTED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE SOUTH WHERE
INSOLATION WAS STRONG. /EC/

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FOR TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER IT SHOULD BE
A MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE RAINS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN AREAS AS WE GET TOWARD MIDNIGHT
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WENT WITH SCATTERED MAV POPS.

FOR WEDNESDAY THE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM THE MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO THE LOWER 90S
ELSEWHERE. WENT WITH SCATTERED MAV POPS./17/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS GREATER
TONIGHT THAT HURRICANE IKE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWFA AND
MAKE LANDFALL WELL WEST OF OUR REGION. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK OF IKE IS WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
GULF WITH LANDFALL OVER THE TEXAS COAST THIS WEEKEND. COME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES
WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS
STRENGTHENING CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
PUSHING IKE TO THE WEST AND LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR ANY NORTHWARD
CURVATURE INTO OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE A WEAKENING STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA
WITH A LARGE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY BUT LIKELY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL SHIFT EAST THURSDAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH IKE IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND VERY
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DEEP MOISTURE BACK
OVER OUR REGION. PWS WILL SURGE BACK ABOVE TWO INCHES OVER OUR CWFA.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAIN OVER OUR AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS
POPS WERE HIGHER THIS RUN AND WL NOT TRIM BACK. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE WETTEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM. THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR EAST WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT OUR TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH PWS REMAINING AROUND TWO
AND A QUARTER INCHES WILL REQUIRE KEEPING POPS IN THE WEST THROUGH
SATURDAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY BUT BOTH MODELS GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWFA. THE
ECMWF BRINGS THE CENTER OF IKE UP FROM TEXAS ACROSS OUR DELTA IN
COMBINATION WITH THE FRONT MONDAY WHILE THE GFS TAKES THE CENTER OF
IKE WEST BUT BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EITHER WAY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY BUT
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN COULD OCCUR OVER OUR CWFA WITH THE FRONT IF
THE ECMWF VERIFIES. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE THOUGHT TO REMAIN
STRONGER...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS TONIGHT. AS FAR AS TEMPS
GO...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY AND MONDAY/TUESDAY...
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR-LOCALLY IFR ISSUES WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION THIS MORNING.
ALSO TYPICAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
BRINGING OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM 09-14Z. EXPECT THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION AS WE GET
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH MVFR TO LOCAL IFR ISSUES.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THE
NORTH AS WE HEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MAY GET SOME PATCHY MVFR
FOG CONDITIONS IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN ON EARLY WEDNESDAY./17/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
531 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
101045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
531 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

17/22

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
119 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008

MSZ028-029-091920-
WEBSTER MS-MONTGOMERY MS-
119 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
NORTHERN MONTGOMERY AND WEBSTER COUNTIES. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
EXTENDS FROM 3 MILES SOUTH OF WINONA TO WALTHAL TO MANTEE. RAINFALL
RATES WERE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
WATER TO COLLECT ON ROADWAYS AND IN OTHER LOW LYING AREAS.

PEOPLE IN MONTGOMERY AND WEBSTER COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

7

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
135 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008

MSZ032-091905-
CHOCTAW MS-
135 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WERE NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER TOLLISON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE WATER TO
COLLECT ON ROADWAYS AND IN OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RAINFALL RATES
WERE NEAR 2 INCHES PER HOUR...IF RAIN CONTINUES AT THIS RATE FLASH
FLOODING MAY DEVELOP.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL CHOCTAW COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

7