Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2008

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Northern Indiana

June 6, 2008Cass County, Michigan

NWS Northern Indiana issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 6, 2008, 4:30 PM EDT for Cass County, Michigan. It was in force for 45 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jun 6, 2008, 4:30 PM EDT (20:30 UTC)
Expired: Jun 6, 2008, 5:15 PM EDT
In force: 45 min
Issued by: NWS Northern Indiana
Area: Storm-based polygon

County Cass County, MI

The radar

The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jun 6, 4:45 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	4 Nw Dowagiac, MI	TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE WITH PEOPLE INSIDE

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 15 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 6, 2:18 PM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	10 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 222 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 714 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -71 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 986 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 76 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 96 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 0.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KIWX 062030
SVRIWX
MIC027-062115-
/O.NEW.KIWX.SV.W.0030.080606T2030Z-080606T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
430 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN CASS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 425 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED
  NEAR DOWAGIAC...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 51 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
  MARCELLUS...
  DOWAGIAC...
  PENN AND WAKELEE...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE
OR NO WARNING. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A
PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

LAT...LON 4208 8577 4200 8577 4185 8612 4199 8622
      4208 8610
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 226DEG 44KT 4199 8605

$$

JC

3 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS53 KIWX 062046
SVSIWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
446 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008

MIC027-062115-
/O.CON.KIWX.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-080606T2115Z/
CASS MI-
446 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CASS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...

AT 442 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS SEVERE STORM WAS
LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF MARCELLUS...OR ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTH OF
PAW PAW...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 33 MPH.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL
DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR
ROOM.

IF YOU HAVE SEVERE WEATHER TO REPORT...YOU CAN CALL YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

LAT...LON 4200 8577 4196 8585 4196 8586 4195 8589
      4195 8590 4208 8601 4208 8577
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 230DEG 29KT 4208 8587

$$

JC

000 
WWUS53 KIWX 062100
SVSIWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
500 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008

MIC027-062115-
/O.CON.KIWX.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-080606T2115Z/
CASS MI-
500 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CASS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...

AT 455 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS SEVERE STORM WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF WAKELEE...OR ABOUT 9 MILES EAST OF
DOWAGIAC...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
  MARCELLUS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL
DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR
ROOM.

IF YOU HAVE SEVERE WEATHER TO REPORT...YOU CAN CALL YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

LAT...LON 4200 8577 4196 8585 4196 8586 4195 8589
      4195 8590 4208 8601 4208 8577
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 236DEG 37KT 4205 8588

$$

JC

000 
WWUS53 KIWX 062119
SVSIWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
519 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008

MIC027-062129-
/O.EXP.KIWX.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-080606T2115Z/
CASS MI-
519 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CASS COUNTY IN
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN HAS EXPIRED...

AT 517 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF 
THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

IF YOU HAVE SEVERE WEATHER TO REPORT...YOU CAN CALL YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

LAT...LON 4200 8577 4196 8585 4196 8586 4195 8589
      4195 8590 4208 8601 4208 8577
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 236DEG 37KT 4195 8579

$$

JC

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 6, 2:56 PM EDT, 1 hour 34 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 6, 2:56 PM EDT, 1 hour 34 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
256 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008

...SEVERE STORMS IMMINENT...

.NEAR TERM...
DEEP WARM SECTOR CONTS TO DESTABILIZE ESP EAST OF MID/HIGH CLD PLUME
ALG PREFNTL TROUGH THROUGH IL. LARGE SCALE SW TROUGH CONTS TO SHIFT
RAPIDLY NEWD INTO MB YET DOWNSTREAM FLW STILL QUITE STRONG W/TAIL
END OF MID LVL SPD MAX AND ATTENDANT LLJ STILL PROGGED TO SHIFT ACRS
CWA BTWN 21-00Z. ARRIVAL OF MID LVL HGT FALLS AND ASSOCD LARGE SCALE
ASCENT TIMED W/MAX HEATING AND DEEPLY SHEARED FLW STILL ALL POINT TO
SVR STORMS THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING W/MIXED MODE CONVN XPCD. MID
LVL CAPPING INVERSION SLOW TO ERODE W/EWD EXTENT AND SEEN IN 12Z
RAOBS AND CURRENT SAT IMAGERY YET WILL PROMOTE A WINDOW OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL ALG PREFNTL TROUGH THIS AFTN AND SUBSEQUENT QLCS
ALG ACCOMPANYING CDFNT THIS EVE. RAPID NEWD STORM MOTION W/STG MID
LVL FLW AND ALTHOUGH PWS HIGH W/INHERENT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL DONT
BELIEVE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THAT MUCH OF A PROB UNLESS TRAINING CONVN
MATERIALIZES.  NEW 12Z HIGHRES WRF DOES MAKE SOME SUGGESTION OF
THAT POSSIBILITY BUT MENTIONED ALREADY IN VARIOUS PRODUCTS. FAR
BIGGER THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WIND GIVEN STG MOMENTUM FIELD IN
PLACE W/TOR POTENTIAL CONFINED TO MATURE BOW STRUCTURES AND DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS EARLY ON. INITIATION ALREADY UNDERWAY FM ERN MO INTO SE
WI W/ADDNL STORMS DVLPG DOWNSTREAM THROUGH ERN IL AND WRN IN BY 20Z
AND GROWING UPSCALE QUICKLY AFT THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
ELONGATING UPR TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CDFNT TO STALL OVR THE AREA
OVERNIGHT W/NEAR TERM CONV EVOLUTION DICTATING POTENTIAL LTR TONIGHT.
IN THE LEAST...STG LLJ IMPINGING ON POTENTIAL MESOSCALE OUTFLW WILL
LIKELY AUGMENT CONVECTIVE CHCS AFT MIDNIGHT SOUTH AND WILL SHADE
POPS THAT WAY IN AGREEMENT W/HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.

SAT MORE UNCERTAIN ESP IN LIGHT OF MID LVL HGT RISES ACRS THE SRN
PLAINS AND CONTD INFLUX OF HIGH THETA-E AIR WITHIN FVRBL SWRLY LLJ.
IN THE LEAST XPC SUFFICIENT AFTN DESTABILIZATION TO WARRANT A CONTD
MENTION OF STORMS BFR INHIBITION BUILDS FURTHER SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LVL PATTERN NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT TROF WEST/RIDGE
EAST THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SFC BNDRY IMPACTING CWA MON-WED.

NAM SLOWER THAN GFS WITH PROGRESSION OF CLOSED LOW ACROSS
MT-ND/CANADIAN BORDER WHICH RESULTS IN SLOWER SE PROGRESSION OF SFC
BOUNDARY ACROSS IA-WI. GFS PROGRESSES IT FURTHER WITH POSSIBLE FAR NW
CWA BEING IMPACTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NO CLEAR CUT FAVORITE MODEL FOR
SUNDAY SOLUTION...SO CONTINUING WITH A DRY SUNDAY FOR NOW AS SE
PROGRESSION OF QPF IN GFS SOMEWHAT SUSPECT AND NAM CONSISTENTLY
KEEPING THE ACTION JUST OFF TO THE NW.

MON NIGHT-TUES SFC FRONT MOVES INTO CWA WITH NAM SLIGHTLY FASTER TO
BRING IN BNDRY...BUT SIMILAR OVERALL BETWEEN MODELS.  FRONT MOVES
IN TO NW ILLINOIS EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND SLOWS SE PROGRESSION WITH
GFS STALLING FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.  BOTH SOLUTIONS PROJECT
CONVECTION ACROSS CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDED CHC POPS
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON CONVECTION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIG CLOSED LOW INTO INTMTN WEST BUT GFS/EC BOTH
LIFT IT NE AND HOLD OFF ON FLATTENING THE E CONUS RIDGE UNTIL PAST
END OF EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING CONTINUED WARM HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

NEAR TERM...HOLSTEN
SHORT TERM...HOLSTEN
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 6, 5:08 AM EDT, 11 hours 22 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
508 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-070915-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
508 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008 /408 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OF 70 MPH OR GREATER...THOUGH LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDICIES TO REACH
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY...AND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-070915-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
508 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OF 70 MPH OR GREATER...THOUGH LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
OVER 30 KNOTS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES...WITH A FEW
GUSTS OF 50 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY...AND TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 6, 4:27 PM EDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
427 PM EDT FRI JUN 06 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LA PORTE                41.61N  86.71W
06/06/2008                   LA PORTE           IN   UTILITY COMPANY

            NIPSCO REPORTED MINOR POWER OUTAGES

&&

EVENT NUMBER 01381

MCS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Northern Indiana issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 6, 3:09 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Berrien	66 min
Jun 6, 3:19 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Berrien	56 min
Jun 6, 3:49 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	IWX	Berrien	26 min
Jun 6, 5:09 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Cass, Saint Joseph	51 min
Jun 6, 5:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Branch	38 min
Jun 6, 7:21 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Cass, Saint Joseph	33 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Michigan, 2008 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.