River Flood Warning 114, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
635 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

.AVIATION...

COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST. SQUALL LINE HAS MOVED THROUGH KSBN
AND NEARING KFWA. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS LINE BUT
EXPECTED TO COME QUICKLY BACK TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF MAIN
FRONT STILL OVER ILLINOIS. LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN SPREADING
ACROSS AREA AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT. EXPECT MVFR VIS WITH THIS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE POST FRONTAL OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS
POSSIBLE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE RESTRICTION EXPECTED. WINDS TO DIMINISH
SOME THROUGH THE DAY BUT STILL GUSTY IN AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM AFFLICTING THE REGION WITH RECORD
TEMPS/FLOODING/AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. LOCALLY TEMPS HAVE SURGED INTO THE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS WELL
INTO THE 50S. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH EVENING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING/DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN IL. MCS PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN IL ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE
MID LEVEL SPEED MAX /PER PROFILER OBS/CONTINUING TO SUPPORT DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF IL. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT PUSHES EAST. HOWEVER...BETTER
LL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE FA...AND
IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED SVR
MENTION IN THE ZONES FOR THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS VERY
STRONG FLOW EXISTS JUST OF THE SFC WITH 53 KNOTS OBSERVED ON THE 18Z
ILX RAOB. ANY LOCAL DOWNDRAFT COULD EASILY MIX DOWN THIS FLOW TO THE
SFC. DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN OK WILL LIFT INTO THE
MIDWEST SUPPORTING THE DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW OVER WESTERN IL AS
IT TRANSLATES NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MOMENTUM INCREASES
WILL BE ONGOING PER A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. H3 PROGS NEARLY 140 KNOTS AT
H5 BY 12Z SUN...WITH A PERIOD OF 70 TO 80 KNOTS OF FLOW PROGGED AT
H85...VERY IMPRESSIVE INDEED. THIS STRONG FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH
FRONTAL INDUCED CONVECTION...SUPPORTING A LINE OF TS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS VARY ON THE EVOLUTION OF TONIGHTS
SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM OPTING FOR A SLOWER FROPA THAN THE GFS.
HOWEVER...FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE NEEDS TO BE TAKEN LIGHTLY...AS
CONVECTIVE PROCESS ONGOING WERE NOT HANDLED WELL AND SENSIBLE
WEATHER COULD STRAY FROM MODEL PROGS VERY EASILY...MAINLY IN THE
EVOLUTION OF TONIGHTS PRECIP AND FRONTAL PROGRESSION. HENCE...HAVE
OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THE SREF/GFS/NAM...AVOIDING RELIANCE ON ONE
MODEL PROG.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND TS WILL PROGRESS INTO THE FA AS UPPER LEVEL
COOLING COMMENCES AND LL CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SFC FRONT COUPLED WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. GIVEN RAMPED UP FLOW
JUST OFF THE SFC OF NEARLY 80 KNOTS AT H85 AND 50 KNOTS AT
H950...CONCERNED ABOUT DAMAGING WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC TROUGH
CONVECTIVE INDUCED DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN SH/TS. IN
ADDITION...A FEW TS MAY ORGANIZE INTO ALLOWING SEGMENTS WITH
ENHANCED WIND THREAT WHERE CAPE AND SHEAR ARE BALANCED...AS LL SHEAR
REMAINS OFF THE CHART. NOT RULING OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE
INTENSE FLOW...WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY OVER 800 M2/S2. COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT ENDING PRECIP CHANCES WEST TO EAST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM GIVEN WARM
THERMAL FIELDS AND LIFT/FORCING DEPLETED BEFORE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
DID LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SW IN THE FAR NW SUN. HOWEVER...THE
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY REMAINS DISMAL AND LIFT DOES NOT EXTEND
INTO THE DGZ.

WINDS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC TONIGHT AS STRONG CAA/ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES OFF THE SFC/STRONG FLOW ALOFT...H95 GEOSTROPHIC FLOW OF NEARLY
60 KNOTS/AND H95 FLOW PARALLEL WITH THE ISALLOBARIC WIND. HAVE
INCREASE WINDS SOME...OPTING FOR WINDS JUST BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA. WILL BEEF UP ADV WINDS.

LOOK FOR A COOLER DAY SUN WITH CLEARING BY LATE MORNING AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD SO FEW CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
CLIPPER THAT CUTS ACROSS MICHIGAN. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT FOR LATE
WEEK SYSTEM. APPEARS GFS IS SLOWLY COMING AROUND TO WEAKER ECMWF
SOLUTION BUT WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY THAT WILL SLIP INTO THE 30S
TUESDAY..LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S MONDAY
TUESDAY WILL SLIP TO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR INZ003>009-
     012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ003>008-012>016-020.

MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ077>081.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-
     016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...SABONES
AVIATION...LASHLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
531 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-281045-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
531 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2008 /431 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT NORTHWEST OF A MONTICELLO TO HILLSDALE
LINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL...THUNDERSTORMS... AND
MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE FLOODING IN THIS AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF ROUTE 6. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR
WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH. SOME RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND MELTING SNOW OVER THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-281045-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
531 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY AND A GALE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/PROGRAMAREAS/MARINE/INDEX.PHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
228 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

INZ006>009-017-018-025>027-033-034-MIZ079>081-OHZ001-002-004-015-016-
024-025-280830-
ADAMS IN-ALLEN OH-ALLEN IN-BLACKFORD IN-BRANCH MI-DE KALB IN-DEFIANCE
OH-FULTON OH-HILLSDALE MI-HUNTINGTON IN-JAY IN-LAGRANGE IN-NOBLE
IN-PAULDING OH-PUTNAM OH-ST. JOSEPH MI-STEUBEN IN-VAN WERT OH-WELLS
IN-WHITLEY IN-WILLIAMS OH-
228 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 223 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SHOWERS WITH VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF CENTREVILLE TO ROME CITY TO HARTFORD
CITY...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 55 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THEN
CONTINUE STRONG OVERNIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  DUNKIRK...OSSIAN AND BLUFFTON...
  GARRETT AND FORT WAYNE...
  AUBURN...
  PORTLAND AND NEW HAVEN...
  DECATUR...BERNE AND ANGOLA...
  BUTLER...VAN WERT

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE OBJECTS
TO BLOW AROUND.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THE STRONG WINDS SUBSIDE.

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