Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Indianapolis, IN

000 
WWUS53 KIND 060144
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
844 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008

INC021-027-055-083-153-060200-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-080206T0200Z/
CLAY-DAVIESS-GREENE-KNOX-SULLIVAN-
844 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST
FOR WESTERN DAVIESS...KNOX...WESTERN GREENE...SULLIVAN AND
SOUTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTIES...

AT 843 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF DUGGER...OR ABOUT 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF
VINCENNES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LINTON BY 850 PM EST...
  JASONVILLE BY 855 PM EST...

LAT...LON 3860 8763 3870 8751 3897 8754 3915 8765
      3924 8759 3926 8708 3891 8714 3855 8718
      3853 8742 3842 8773
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 231DEG 53KT 3900 8725

$$

KOCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
555 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008

.AVIATION...

DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS
TRWS EXPECTED TO INCRS IN CVRG DURING THE EVENING PER REGIONAL AND
NATIONAL RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY IFR CIGS TNGT IMPVG TO
MVFR MID MORNING TOMORROW. VSYS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IFR THROUGH THE
PD...WHILE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH BY LATE EVE WL SHIFT FM THE ENE
TO THE SE TO THE SW AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS ACRS THE QUASI-STNRY
BOUNDARY ACRS SRN INDIANA TNGT. COULD STILL SOME RWS AROUND TOWARD
12Z AND TOMORROW...BUT BULK OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE OVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FOCUS ON THIS FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON SEVERE AND FLOOD CONCERNS IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CURRENT SETUP SHOWS A WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE 30S TO LOW 50S ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES REMAINS TO OUR
SOUTH...SO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTH. THE KEY WILL BE HOW
FAR SOUTH THIS WARM FRONT PUNCHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON
SOUNDINGS IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOW THAT WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF
CAPE...THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A VERY STRONG CAP...IN FACT STRONGER
THAN WHAT THE MODELS HAD PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. H7 TEMPS WERE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER FROM ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS VS WHAT THE MODELS
HAD INDICATED. BUT AT THE TIME OF WRITING...SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
IN THE WARM SECTOR.

THE GREATER CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL APPEAR TO BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW CROSSES THE AREA WITH A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE
AND DAMAGING WIND BEING THE GREATEST THREAT. WILL TRY AND ACCOUNT
FOR THIS IN THE GRIDS AND NOT MENTION POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE GRIDS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING RATHER THAN THIS AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL THREAT AS WELL AS ALL MODELS AND
HPC QPF CONTINUE TO INDICATE 1 TO 2 OR 3 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE WITH REGARDS
TO WHEN THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES. THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS ARE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE OLDER RUNS. AT THIS POINT...THE
THREAT OF SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM SEEMS GREATLY DIMINISHED. WILL
CHANGE THE FORECAST TO KEEP IT WARMER FOR LONGER TONIGHT...WITH
THE BEST COLD ADVECTION NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/ THE MAIN FEATURE
DURING THE EXTENDED WILL BE ANOTHER TURN TO COLDER WEATHER OVER
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. AFTER
FROPA WILL CHANGE THE CHANCE TO SNOW SHOWERS. 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO
-20 TO -24 ON SUNDAY. TEMPS THEN STAY COLD THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-
051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

EXTENDED...SH
AVIATION...MK
SHORT TERM...LAJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
434 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008

INZ039>042-044>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-062145-
HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-PARKE-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-
HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-
GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-
LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
434 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING...INCLUDING FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE WHITE...EAST FORK
WHITE...WABASH...AND OTHER CENTRAL INDIANA RIVERS. CHECK THE
LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
SPOTTERS ARE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODED ROADWAYS OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ021-028>031-035>038-043-062145-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-VERMILLION-
434 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD FLOODING...INCLUDING FLASH
FLOODING. LIGHTNING IS A THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE WHITE...EAST FORK
WHITE...WABASH AND OTHER CENTRAL INDIANA RIVERS. CHECK THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ORGANIZED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT FLOODED ROADWAYS OR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)