Severe Thunderstorm Warning 271, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 132237
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
537 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

ILC017-137-171-132315-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0271.000000T0000Z-080913T2315Z/
CASS-MORGAN-SCOTT-
537 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN CASS...NORTHERN MORGAN AND EXTREME NORTHERN SCOTT
COUNTIES...

AT 534 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF VIRGINIA TO
CONCORD...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
VIRGINIA TO 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF JACKSONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
46 MPH.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
  SINCLAIR...
  LITERBERRY...
  VIRGINIA...
  CHANDLERVILLE...
  PRENTICE...
  PHILADELPHIA...
  ASHLAND...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...CHAPIN AND ARENZVILLE.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4006 9032 4006 9002 3985 9000 3984 9001
      3974 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 237DEG 40KT 4003 9025 3986 9034

$$

GOETSCH

000 
WWUS53 KILX 132313
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
613 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

ILC017-137-171-132324-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0271.000000T0000Z-080913T2315Z/
CASS-MORGAN-SCOTT-
614 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN CASS...NORTHERN MORGAN
AND EXTREME NORTHERN SCOTT COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 615 PM CDT...

AT 609 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 4006 9032 4006 9002 3985 9000 3984 9001
      3974 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 237DEG 40KT 4025 8980 4008 8989

$$

GOETSCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
306 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 306 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN HAS BEEN ONGOING FROM QUINCY TO PEORIA TO
CHICAGO FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND RAINFALL RATES WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM EASTERN IOWA. EXTREMELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES /MORE THAN 2.5 INCHES/ WILL STREAM NORTHWARD WITH THE
REMNANTS OF IKE...WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL A GOOD BET. AGREE WITH HPC
QPF AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES STORM TOTAL RAIN FROM PITTSFIELD TO
PONTIAC. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE FOR IKE HAS IT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
MISSOURI BY 12Z SUN AND CONTINUING RAPIDLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS DURING THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN HEAVY RAIN EVENT
WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF IKE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ONLY PROGRESS TO AROUND INTERSTATE 55 BY 12Z SUN. WILL
THEREFORE DELAY THE START OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS
UNTIL 12Z SUN.

IN ADDITIONAL TO THE RAIN SITUATION...IKE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND IT WILL TAKE LONGER THAN USUAL FOR ITS SURFACE WINDS TO
SETTLE DOWN. WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IKE MAY REACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL LET THIS DECISION REST WITH
THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE TO ASSESS HOW THE WINDS ARE OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

AS IKE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE INTO INDIANA...RAIN WILL TAPER OFF
BEGINING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WEST AND FINISH BY SUNSET IN THE
EAST. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD AND BRING A PERIOD
OF DRY  WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL PLACE THE MIDWEST IN DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THURSDAY...THE GFS TRIES TO
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
STALLING IT OUT. THE ECMWF IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION AS IT BRINGS AN
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND
CORRESPONDINGLY PUTS MORE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...THUS
HOLDING THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE YET
IN THE EVOLUTION/SPEED OF THE WESTERN TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BUT BOTTOM LINE FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL BE A CONTINUATION
OF THE DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

04
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1248 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

RAIN NOW CONFINED TO ALONG AND NW OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY FOR ILX
CWA. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE FOR BMI AND SPI...BUT
MAJORITY OF THE FA GETTING A BIT OF A BREAK AT LEAST UNTIL LATER ON
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN EVERYTHING MAY FIRE BACK UP A BIT. PIA HANGING IN
THERE WITH MVFR...THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL GET TO STAY
THAT WAY. COLD FRONT ON APPROACH...AS WELL AS REMNANTS OF IKE COMING
UP FROM THE SW...CREATING PLENTY OF RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS FOR THE
FORECAST. HAVE VCTS IN FOR THE BEST CHANCES AT CONVECTION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER...AND TRY TO START THE
TREND OUT OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW. ALSO PUNCH
THE WINDS UP A BIT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE LOW.

HJS
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM SUNDAY FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>045-047>054-061.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR
ILZ046-055>057-062-063-066>068-071>073.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
310 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>045-047>054-061-141100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-
MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-SANGAMON-
SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
310 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN
TONIGHT...KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE IKE WILL
FLOW INTO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED. RAINFALL RATES UP
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. ANY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING. NEVER DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED ROADWAY. TURN AROUND
AND FIND A BETTER ROUTE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM THE REMNANTS OF IKE WILL PASS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON
SUNDAY...MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW. WINDS
WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY WHERE THE RAINS ACCUMULATE
QUICKLY. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVING 6 INCHES OF RAIN. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ046-055>057-062-063-066>068-071>073-141100-
CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-
JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-VERMILION-
310 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN
TONIGHT...KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE IKE WILL
FLOW INTO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED. RAINFALL RATES UP
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. ANY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING. NEVER DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED ROADWAY. TURN AROUND
AND FIND A BETTER ROUTE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM THE REMNANTS OF IKE WILL PASS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON
SUNDAY...MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW. WINDS
WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY WHERE THE RAINS ACCUMULATE
QUICKLY. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVING 6 INCHES OF RAIN. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

HJS