Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WGUS73 KILX 140141
FFSILX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
841 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

ILC057-125-140400-
/O.CON.KILX.FF.W.0051.000000T0000Z-080914T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FULTON-MASON-
841 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
NORTHERN MASON AND FULTON COUNTIES...

AT 830 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN TO MOVE OVER THE WARNED
AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE... ST. DAVID...LONDON MILLS...
FAIRVIEW...CUBA...CANTON AND AVON

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA OVERNIGHT.

AT 735 PM...FULTON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INDICATED THAT THE 
WATER WAS FLOWING OVER THE WEE MA TUK LAKE DAM...2 MILES NORTHEAST 
CUBA.  THIS WATER WAS AIDING IN PUSHING...PUT CREEK...WAS OUT OF ITS 
BANKS...WHICH WAS FLOODING PORTIONS OF ROUTE 97. 

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4071 9045 4072 9000 4063 8999 4063 8988
      4051 8988 4045 8993 4037 9005 4028 9010
      4020 9021 4019 9045

$$

GOETSCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
306 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 306 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN HAS BEEN ONGOING FROM QUINCY TO PEORIA TO
CHICAGO FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND RAINFALL RATES WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM EASTERN IOWA. EXTREMELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES /MORE THAN 2.5 INCHES/ WILL STREAM NORTHWARD WITH THE
REMNANTS OF IKE...WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL A GOOD BET. AGREE WITH HPC
QPF AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES STORM TOTAL RAIN FROM PITTSFIELD TO
PONTIAC. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE FOR IKE HAS IT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
MISSOURI BY 12Z SUN AND CONTINUING RAPIDLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS DURING THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN HEAVY RAIN EVENT
WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF IKE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ONLY PROGRESS TO AROUND INTERSTATE 55 BY 12Z SUN. WILL
THEREFORE DELAY THE START OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS
UNTIL 12Z SUN.

IN ADDITIONAL TO THE RAIN SITUATION...IKE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND IT WILL TAKE LONGER THAN USUAL FOR ITS SURFACE WINDS TO
SETTLE DOWN. WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IKE MAY REACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL LET THIS DECISION REST WITH
THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE TO ASSESS HOW THE WINDS ARE OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

AS IKE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE INTO INDIANA...RAIN WILL TAPER OFF
BEGINING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WEST AND FINISH BY SUNSET IN THE
EAST. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD AND BRING A PERIOD
OF DRY  WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL PLACE THE MIDWEST IN DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THURSDAY...THE GFS TRIES TO
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
STALLING IT OUT. THE ECMWF IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION AS IT BRINGS AN
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND
CORRESPONDINGLY PUTS MORE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...THUS
HOLDING THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE YET
IN THE EVOLUTION/SPEED OF THE WESTERN TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BUT BOTTOM LINE FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL BE A CONTINUATION
OF THE DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

04
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1248 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

RAIN NOW CONFINED TO ALONG AND NW OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY FOR ILX
CWA. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE FOR BMI AND SPI...BUT
MAJORITY OF THE FA GETTING A BIT OF A BREAK AT LEAST UNTIL LATER ON
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN EVERYTHING MAY FIRE BACK UP A BIT. PIA HANGING IN
THERE WITH MVFR...THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL GET TO STAY
THAT WAY. COLD FRONT ON APPROACH...AS WELL AS REMNANTS OF IKE COMING
UP FROM THE SW...CREATING PLENTY OF RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS FOR THE
FORECAST. HAVE VCTS IN FOR THE BEST CHANCES AT CONVECTION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER...AND TRY TO START THE
TREND OUT OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW. ALSO PUNCH
THE WINDS UP A BIT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE LOW.

HJS
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM SUNDAY FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>045-047>054-061.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR
ILZ046-055>057-062-063-066>068-071>073.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
310 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>045-047>054-061-141100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-
MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-SANGAMON-
SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
310 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN
TONIGHT...KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE IKE WILL
FLOW INTO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED. RAINFALL RATES UP
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. ANY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING. NEVER DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED ROADWAY. TURN AROUND
AND FIND A BETTER ROUTE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM THE REMNANTS OF IKE WILL PASS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON
SUNDAY...MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW. WINDS
WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY WHERE THE RAINS ACCUMULATE
QUICKLY. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVING 6 INCHES OF RAIN. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ046-055>057-062-063-066>068-071>073-141100-
CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-
JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-VERMILION-
310 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN
TONIGHT...KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE IKE WILL
FLOW INTO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED. RAINFALL RATES UP
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. ANY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING. NEVER DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED ROADWAY. TURN AROUND
AND FIND A BETTER ROUTE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM THE REMNANTS OF IKE WILL PASS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON
SUNDAY...MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW. WINDS
WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY WHERE THE RAINS ACCUMULATE
QUICKLY. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVING 6 INCHES OF RAIN. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

HJS