Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 272259
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
558 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

ILC023-035-272308-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0186.000000T0000Z-080627T2300Z/
CLARK-CUMBERLAND-
558 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CLARK AND EASTERN CUMBERLAND
COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 600 PM CDT...

AT 557 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN AND 
EASTERN CLARK COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3933 8760 3927 8763 3925 8758 3921 8758
      3917 8764 3919 8772 3918 8810 3937 8810
      3939 8802 3948 8801 3947 8754 3935 8754
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 252DEG 35KT 3940 8746

$$

CHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
229 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 228 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS THE CONVECTION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN SOME INSTABILITY SHOWER PCPN ON SUNDAY...AND
FINALLY FRONTAL PCPN ON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAIN SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MSAS DATA OVER CENTRAL IL. IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY...A NUMBER OF WAVE OF UPPER LEVEL
IMAGERY ARE SEEN. MAIN UPPER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CANADA ROTATING
SOUTH TOWARD ND. IN THE PLAINS...LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION LEFT BEHIND
A NUMBER OF WEAK VORTEX SYSTEMS...WITH ONE MOVING EAST OVER
NORTHWEST IL. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE SEEN MOVING EAST OVER
CENTRAL IA...WITH A MCV ON THE IL/IA BORDER. THIS SYSTEM IS THE
MAIN TRIGGER FOR THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT IN VERY
UNSTABLE AIR OVER EAST MO AND IL. THOUGH HAD MORNING PCPN THAT
MOVED THROUGH AND STABILIZED AIRMASS...CLOUDS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY
HAVE THINNED AND ALLOWED HEATING IN MO AND WESTERN IL. SEVERAL
STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE INSTABILITY AND ON LEFT OVER
BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP INTO EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MCV AND
AHEAD OF FRONT. FRONT FINALLY CLEARS BY SATURDAY MIDDAY.

FOR SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL COLD LOW IN GREAT LAKES AND INSTABILITY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MODELS LOOK PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEY THEN DIVERGE. NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DOMAINATE FOR THE MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY
PERIOD...KEEPING THE AREA DRY. NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THOSE
DAYS. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THOUGH...GFS IS MUCH SLOWER ON A COLD
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARD...WITH EUROPEAN BRINGNING FRONT
THROUGH CWA INTO OH VALLEY BY SAT MORNING. NCEP GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
BE MORE GOING WITH GFS. I LIKE THE MORE AGRESSIVE EUR...SO WNET MORE
WITH A BLEND...BRINGING PCPN CHANCES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LINGERED THE PCPN
FOR FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN 2/3 TO TRY AND BELND THE TWO MODELS.

GOETSCH
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1213 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008
VFR WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WX IN BETWEEN PERIODS OF CONVECTION.
MAIN CONCERN IS WITH STORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE UP INVOF OLD MCV
OVER NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. ALSO NOTE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT
MOVING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVERNIGHT
ALONG COLD FRONT IS QUESTIONABLE ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR
WEST...WENT WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW.
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
350 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

ILZ036-040-041-047-049-050-281100-
CASS-FULTON-MASON-MORGAN-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
350 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
BRING A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THIS EVENING
AND INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY EVEN TORNADOES. IN
ADDITION...THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE ILLINOIS RIVER WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD AT HAVANA AND POINTS
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER
AT THIS TIME NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.

ILZ027>031-037-038-042>046-048-051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-
281100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-
DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-KNOX-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SHELBY-
STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD-
350 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
BRING A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THIS EVENING
AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY EVEN
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SEVERAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A PERIODIC CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THEM. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.

HARDIMAN