Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 272052
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
352 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

ILC021-272102-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0182.000000T0000Z-080627T2115Z/
CHRISTIAN-
352 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

AT 347 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3911 8860 3910 8882 3921 8882 3921 8913
      3922 8915 3935 8915 3935 8903 3966 8902
      3966 8848 3922 8847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 270DEG 29KT 3962 8869 3933 8872
          3913 8899

$$

ILC049-139-173-272115-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0182.000000T0000Z-080627T2115Z/
EFFINGHAM-MOULTRIE-SHELBY-
352 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN MOULTRIE...SHELBY AND NORTHWESTERN EFFINGHAM COUNTIES...

AT 347 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES SOUTH OF BETHANY TO
CLARKSBURG TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HERRICK...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF SULLIVAN TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF
SHELBYVILLE TO 11 MILES NORTH OF VANDALIA...MOVING EAST AT 33 MPH.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
  MODE...
  WINDSOR...
  SULLIVAN...
  STRASBURG...
  BEECHER CITY...
  ALLENVILLE...
  TROWBRIDGE...
  STEWARDSON...
  GAYS...
  MOCCASIN...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 57 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 167 AND 170.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3911 8860 3910 8882 3921 8882 3921 8913
      3922 8915 3935 8915 3935 8903 3966 8902
      3966 8848 3922 8847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 270DEG 29KT 3962 8869 3933 8872
          3913 8899

$$

BARNES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
229 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 228 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS THE CONVECTION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN SOME INSTABILITY SHOWER PCPN ON SUNDAY...AND
FINALLY FRONTAL PCPN ON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAIN SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MSAS DATA OVER CENTRAL IL. IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY...A NUMBER OF WAVE OF UPPER LEVEL
IMAGERY ARE SEEN. MAIN UPPER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CANADA ROTATING
SOUTH TOWARD ND. IN THE PLAINS...LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION LEFT BEHIND
A NUMBER OF WEAK VORTEX SYSTEMS...WITH ONE MOVING EAST OVER
NORTHWEST IL. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE SEEN MOVING EAST OVER
CENTRAL IA...WITH A MCV ON THE IL/IA BORDER. THIS SYSTEM IS THE
MAIN TRIGGER FOR THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT IN VERY
UNSTABLE AIR OVER EAST MO AND IL. THOUGH HAD MORNING PCPN THAT
MOVED THROUGH AND STABILIZED AIRMASS...CLOUDS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY
HAVE THINNED AND ALLOWED HEATING IN MO AND WESTERN IL. SEVERAL
STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE INSTABILITY AND ON LEFT OVER
BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP INTO EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MCV AND
AHEAD OF FRONT. FRONT FINALLY CLEARS BY SATURDAY MIDDAY.

FOR SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL COLD LOW IN GREAT LAKES AND INSTABILITY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MODELS LOOK PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEY THEN DIVERGE. NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DOMAINATE FOR THE MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY
PERIOD...KEEPING THE AREA DRY. NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THOSE
DAYS. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THOUGH...GFS IS MUCH SLOWER ON A COLD
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARD...WITH EUROPEAN BRINGNING FRONT
THROUGH CWA INTO OH VALLEY BY SAT MORNING. NCEP GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
BE MORE GOING WITH GFS. I LIKE THE MORE AGRESSIVE EUR...SO WNET MORE
WITH A BLEND...BRINGING PCPN CHANCES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LINGERED THE PCPN
FOR FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN 2/3 TO TRY AND BELND THE TWO MODELS.

GOETSCH
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1213 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008
VFR WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WX IN BETWEEN PERIODS OF CONVECTION.
MAIN CONCERN IS WITH STORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE UP INVOF OLD MCV
OVER NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. ALSO NOTE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT
MOVING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVERNIGHT
ALONG COLD FRONT IS QUESTIONABLE ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR
WEST...WENT WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW.
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1202 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

ILZ036-040-041-047-049-050-281100-
CASS-FULTON-MASON-MORGAN-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
1202 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THEN A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND BRING A SECOND
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS TONIGHT
COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY EVEN
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE ILLINOIS RIVER WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD AT HAVANA AND POINTS
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER
AT THIS TIME NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.

ILZ027>031-037-038-042>046-048-051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-
281100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-
DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-KNOX-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SHELBY-
STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD-
1202 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THEN A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND BRING A SECOND
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS TONIGHT
COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY EVEN
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SEVERAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A PERIODIC CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THEM. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.

HARDIMAN