Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
448 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME WEAKENING TO THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO AN AREA WITH
LESS INSTABILITY. BUT AS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY CENTER IN
NORTHERN INDIANA MOVES EAST EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT A LULL IN ACTIVITY THURSDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY AS HEATING BRINGS FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHETHER THERE WILL BE SUPPORT
SUSTAINING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES JUST
KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING.

BELIEVE GFS MOS IS SLIGHTLY TOO WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT
LOOKED REASONABLE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY...SCT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S...HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON PCPN TIMING.

SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SLOWER TIMING
WITH THE COLD FRONT.  THE SCT/NUMEROUS PCPN COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AGAIN...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
BACK BY THE RAIN SATURDAY...WITH SEASONABLY COOL AIR SETTLING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

A TRAILING UPPER TROF WILL LINGER SCT SHOWERS/STORMS INTO
MONDAY...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING.
THEN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. ENERGY
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE VCTS POSSIBLE AT
CMH...LCK...ILN...AND DAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE FORCING SUPPORTIVE
OF ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH VCTS
ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FRINGES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS...BRINGING OVERNIGHT VCSH/CB AT CMH AND LCK. A SCT-BKN CLOUD
DECK AT 10-15KFT WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
517 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-260930-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
517 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT AND ALONG IT MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
OR LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
347 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0346 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VANDALIA                39.88N 84.19W
06/25/2008                   MONTGOMERY         OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN

&&

HAWBLITZEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
418 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     HAIL             ENGLEWOOD               39.86N 84.31W
06/25/2008  U1.00 INCH       MONTGOMERY         OH   PUBLIC

&&

HUGHES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
452 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008

OHZ056-252130-
LICKING OH-
452 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LICKING COUNTY THROUGH 530 PM
EDT...

AT 450 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR BEECHWOOD TRAILS...MOVING EAST AT 29
MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...
KIRKERSVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...GRANVILLE SOUTH...HEBRON...GRANVILLE...
HEATH...NEWARK AND HANOVER.

THIS STORM WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH
MAY FLOOD ROADS...DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE INTO
PLACES WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD AND AVOID FLOOD PRONE AREAS.