Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
149 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. UNIFORM UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WEST
WILL LET A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES CROSS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S OVER THE N TO THE UPPER 60S
IN THE SW. GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FCST HAD THIS IN HAND AND CLOUD
COVER SHOULD AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WOULD BE THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR
FOR TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NAM IS OVERDONE WITH THE SHARP AMPLIFICATION OF THE H5 TROUGH AND
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW DEVELOPED OVER WRN LERI IN THE 0-6Z TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER...THE SOLUTION OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND A BIT MORE
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG AN OUTFLOW ALONG IT TO THE S IS NOT
UNREASONABLE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AS IT STRETCHES OVER CWA AND OHVLY...LEADING TO AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT FOR ALL OF CWA.

ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED S/WS WILL BE HARD TO PEG WHERE/WHEN
CONVECTION FIRES ALONG IT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY QUICKER RISE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE ON SW WINDS IS IN ORDER FOR THE FCST.

COULD NOT LIMIT SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF ANY ONE PERIOD DUE TO THE QUICK
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND NEBULOUS POSITIONING OF S/WS THAT WILL BE
SPARKING ACTIVITY.

TEMPS GENERALLY FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE AND REMAINED WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG H5 UPPER LOW TRAVELS FROM UPPER MIDWEST AND A SFC COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
THERE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AFTER
FROPA...TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN QUITE A BIT AND I HAD TO ADD A CHANCE
FOR COLD POOL SHOWERS OVER THE NRN HALF OF FCST AREA SUN NIGHT AND
THE NE THIRD ON MON WHERE PREV FCST WAS DRY. TEMPS ALREADY WERE
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE COOLER AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED IN SO NO BIG
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED OUTSIDE OF QUICKENING THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AND INTRODUCING COLD POOL SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. ENERGY
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE VCTS POSSIBLE AT
CMH...LCK...ILN...AND DAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE FORCING SUPPORTIVE
OF ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH VCTS
ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FRINGES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS...BRINGING OVERNIGHT VCSH/CB AT CMH AND LCK. A SCT-BKN CLOUD
DECK AT 10-15KFT WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...WOODRUM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
517 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-260930-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
517 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT AND ALONG IT MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
OR LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.