Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
323 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND SEVERE CHANCES OVERNIGHT.

SYNOPSIS:
CURRENTLY HAVE A STRONG UPPER WAVE DIVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CO/NORTHERN NM. VIS SATELLITE SHOWING SOME CU DEVELOPING OVER FAR
WESTERN KS AS THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS START TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE LOOSE DRY LINE IS SITUATED ALONG
A EMP TO WLD LINE WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NE AND ANOTHER ONE
TAKING SHAPE OVER THE OK PANHANDLE WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE
BEEN MAXIMIZED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

TONIGHT:
DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WORK EAST THROUGH 00Z FRI AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS SE KS. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE RUC...GFS AND NAM ARE STILL OVERDOING THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ACROSS SE KS WITH MOST SHOWING BETWEEN 65-68 DEGREES...WITH 62-64
MORE REALISTIC. AS EXPECTED THE CAP IS CURRENTLY HOLDING STRONG BUT
WILL START TO ERODE QUICKLY AS THE COOLER MID LEVEL AIR OVERSPREADS
THE DRYLINE. MODELS ARE STILL BACKING THE SURFACE WINDS AROUND 00Z
AS PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
IMPORTANT QUESTION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/DRYLINE TO INITIATE
STORMS BEFORE DARK. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN HOUR EITHER SIDE
OF 00Z WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO
DARK. ONE DIFFERENCE WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AND WHAT IS
OCCURRING...IS THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ORIENTED MORE NE TO SW
WHICH MEANS THAT IT WILL BE EASIER TO GET CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SINCE BACKED WINDS WILL NOT BE NEEDED. OBVIOUSLY ANY STORMS
THAT FIRE BEFORE DARK WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK THE DRYLINE WEST AFTER 00Z AS THE SURFACE
LOW TRACKS INTO NORTH CENTRAL OK. IF STORMS DO NOT DEVELOP BEFORE
DARK...THEY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 03Z AS THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY
CATCHES UP WITH THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE
BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS GETTING INTO THE AREA. THE STORMS AFTER DARK
WILL BE MORE LINEAR IN NATURE BUT WILL STILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

FRI-SUN:
BY 18Z FRI THE UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NE/NORTH
CENTRAL NE. THIS WILL PLACE MOST OF NORTHERN KS IN A PRIME AREA FOR
HIGH NW WINDS AND CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR OUR CENTRAL KS COUNTIES FRI AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...FEEL IT WOULD
BE CONFUSING GOING WITH AN NPW NOW...CONSIDERING DDC HAS A WIND
ADVISORY OUT FOR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL HEADLINES LIKELY
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE WILL BRIEF THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT ON THE SITUATION
AND LET THEM ISSUE. CONTINUED WITH SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER LOW. HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY OVER THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES WITH 30S LIKELY FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH SAT AND SUN MORNING AS
THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

MON-THU:
DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THROUGH THESE
PERIODS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TRACKING INTO THE DESERT SW ON MON AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR
WED INTO THU. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO SETUP ACROSS THE PLAINS
FOR MON INTO TUE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE TWO MODES OF PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THESE PERIODS...ONE WITH THE INITIAL MOISTURE SURGE AND THE
OTHER WHEN THE UPPER DYNAMICS LIFT OUT. FOR NOW WILL NOT GET TOO
CUTE AND WILL INCREASE POPS SLOWLY FROM MON NIGHT INTO WED.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE

****ERROR: INCOMPLETE DATA

  39  64 /  50  10  10  10
RUSSELL         40  56  35  60 /  20  40  30  10
GREAT BEND      41  56  36  63 /  20  30  20   0
SALINA          47  58  35  62 /  20  30  30  10
MCPHERSON       47  60  37  62 /  20  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     58  69  42  63 /  80  20  10  10
CHANUTE         56  67  41  59 /  80  20  20  10
IOLA            56  67  41  59 /  80  20  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    57  69  42  61 /  80  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
348 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-021015-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
348 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS PRIOR TO
SUNSET WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER DARK AS A COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES THE RETREATING DRYLINE. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO A LINE AND AFFECT LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
BECOMING SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THIS TIME
FRAME WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

COX/JMC/LAWSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
839 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 PM     HAIL             HOWARD                  37.47N 96.26W
05/01/2008  E0.75 INCH       ELK                KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LFW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
845 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 PM     FLOOD            HOWARD                  37.47N 96.26W
05/01/2008                   ELK                KS   AMATEUR RADIO

            LOCALIZED FLOODING SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE COUNTY

&&

LFW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
850 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     HAIL             6 SW FREDONIA           37.47N 95.90W
05/01/2008  E1.00 INCH       WILSON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LFW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
854 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0854 PM     HAIL             1 W FREDONIA            38.51N 98.29W
05/01/2008  E1.00 INCH       RICE               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LFW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
855 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0854 PM     HAIL             5 SW FREDONIA           37.48N 95.89W
05/01/2008  E2.00 INCH       WILSON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LFW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
857 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0854 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     6 E IOLA                37.93N 95.29W
05/01/2008                   ALLEN              KS   STORM CHASER

&&

CDJ