Severe Thunderstorm Warning 332, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
312 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL DEAL WITH TIMING OF NORTHWEST
FLOW CONVEYOR BELT OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AFFECTING
KANSAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

TDY-TONIGHT
OVERNIGHT MCS HAS BEEN TRAVELING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE INSTABILITY
AXIS AND LOOKS TO CONTINUE WELL SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA FOR THIS
MORNING. WE WILL KEEP SOME EARLY MORNING POPS IN FOR TIMING OF MCS
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. OTHERWISE...THINGS SHOULD BE STABILIZED IN
THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCS THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MORE
STORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN
KANSAS...AS YET ANOTHER IMPULSE TOPPLES THE RIDGE AXIS AND DROPS
SOUTHEAST VIA NORTHWEST FLOW. THE STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO A MCS
AND TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE AGAIN.

THU-FRI
SOME ACTIVITY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT MCS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A POSSIBLE THIRD MCS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT TO
DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS. SO WILL HOLD ONTO DECENT POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THINGS COULD FINALLY CALM DOWN A BIT COME
FRIDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF REGION.

EXTENDED: SAT-TUE
ONCE AGAIN ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD BUT PERSISTENT
UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW STILL OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY COULD LEAD TO
MORE PRECIP CHANCES...AND WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCES OVER OUR
WESTERN FRINGES IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT THIS JUNCTURE.
OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCH ITS WAY EASTWARD WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

JAKUB

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF SUITE...CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
ON MAINTENANCE OF SEVERE IS MODEST AT BEST...DUE TO THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND MODEST LOW LEVEL JET STAYING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY FOR KRSL AND KSLN. VCTS FOR
REST OF TAF SITES IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS FOR A FEW
HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 12Z.

EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN CONVECTION...WILL
CONTINUE WITH PREVAILING VFR THRU REST OF FORECAST PERIOD.
RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LOOKS TO
AFFECT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    85  66  83  66 /  20  40  30  40
HUTCHINSON      86  65  83  65 /  20  50  40  40
NEWTON          85  65  82  65 /  20  40  40  40
ELDORADO        85  65  83  64 /  20  30  40  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   85  66  84  66 /  50  30  30  40
RUSSELL         87  64  83  64 /  50  60  40  40
GREAT BEND      87  65  84  65 /  40  60  40  40
SALINA          86  65  83  65 /  20  50  40  40
MCPHERSON       86  64  83  64 /  20  50  40  40
COFFEYVILLE     83  65  82  65 /  30  20  40  40
CHANUTE         82  64  82  64 /  20  20  40  40
IOLA            82  64  82  64 /  10  20  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    82  65  82  65 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1012 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-190315-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1012 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND WINDS TO 60 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AS A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY BUT THE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 AM     HAIL             MARION                  38.35N 97.02W
06/18/2008  E1.25 INCH       MARION             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
327 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 AM     TSTM WND GST     GREAT BEND              38.36N 98.81W
06/18/2008  M64 MPH          BARTON             KS   ASOS

&&

CDJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
342 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

KSZ052-053-068-069-180930-
BUTLER-CHASE-HARVEY-MARION-
342 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR BUTLER...CHASE...HARVEY AND MARION COUNTIES...

AT 340 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF PEABODY...OR 14 MILES EAST OF
NEWTON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

COX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
343 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 SSW BUSHTON           38.45N 98.44W
06/18/2008  E60 MPH          RICE               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
353 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 NE NEWTON             38.10N 97.28W
06/18/2008  E60 MPH          HARVEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CDJ

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