Severe Thunderstorm Warning 328, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1036 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF SUITE...CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
ON MAINTENANCE OF SEVERE IS MODEST AT BEST...DUE TO THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND MODEST LOW LEVEL JET STAYING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY FOR KRSL AND KSLN. VCTS FOR
REST OF TAF SITES IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS FOR A FEW
HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 12Z.

EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN CONVECTION...WILL
CONTINUE WITH PREVAILING VFR THRU REST OF FORECAST PERIOD.
RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LOOKS TO
AFFECT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

KED

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF SUITE...BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL STAY
WEST OF THE AREA THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS...THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN UPSLOPE COMPONENT
FLOW MAY PROMOTE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

KED

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY ARE OVERNIGHT PRECIP CHANCES AND A WARMING
TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

TONIGHT-WED:
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
SHRA/TSRA TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NIGHT AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KS AND IN THE OK
PANHANDLE. DO EXPECT THE CONVECTION OUT WEST TO EVENTUALLY PROPAGATE
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. SO COULD SEE
SOME OF THIS CONVECTION SNEAK INTO AREAS SOUTHWEST OF ICT DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WED. SO WILL KEEP A LOW POPS IN AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF ICT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WED NIGHT-THU:
THIS LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA THEN DROP SOUTH ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS IT SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. THIS COMPLEX COULD ALSO LEAD TO OUR BEST SEVERE
CHANCE OF THE WEEK...WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 0-3KM SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-45KTS SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AND CERTAINLY A
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALMOST 2.

COULD ALSO SEE SHRA FROM THIS COMPLEX LINGER INTO THU AS WELL
.ESPECIALLY IN SRN KS. SO WILL KEEP A SOLID CHANCE POP GOING FOR
THU AS WELL. WILL ALSO GO COOLER ON MAX TEMPS FOR THU AS LOTS OF
SHRA AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN.

FRI-SAT:
NOT SURE HOW THIS TIME FRAME WILL EVOLVE AS MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF IMPULSES MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. GFS
SHOWING ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING OVER WRN KS LATE FRI NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY CLIPPING SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE FRI OR EARLY SAT.  THE ECMWF
ISNT QUITE AS ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE. SO WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR
NOW....BUT COULD SEE ADDING POPS WITH LATER FORECASTS.

WILL ALSO INCLUDE A SLIGHT POPS WEST OF I-135 FOR SAT NIGHT AS WELL
TO COORDINATE BETTER WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

SUN-TUE:
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WILL DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPS MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER.  THIS UPPER
RIDGE WILL ALSO LEAD TO A MINOR REPRIEVE FROM THE NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA....WITH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA.  NOT COMPLETELY SURE THAT THIS TIME FRAME WILL
BE DRY FOR ALL LOCATIONS....AS GFS SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE DIVING
SOUTH INTO ERN KS COULD LEAD TO SOME POPS FOR SUN.  BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SOLUTION IS LOW SO WILL KEEP THIS DRY FOR NOW.

KETCHAM

AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR
THE MOST PART OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON/EVENING
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY AFFECT
MAINLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF KANSAS TONIGHT.
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS ACTIVITY WILL
AFFECT...SO ONLY INSERTED CB WORDING FOR NOW ALL AREAS EXCEPT
CHANUTE TERMINAL.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  85  65  83 /  30  10  40  50
HUTCHINSON      63  86  64  83 /  30  10  40  50
NEWTON          62  85  64  82 /  30  10  40  50
ELDORADO        61  85  64  83 /  30  10  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   61  85  65  84 /  30  10  30  50
RUSSELL         60  87  64  83 /  60  10  60  50
GREAT BEND      61  87  64  84 /  30  10  60  50
SALINA          63  86  64  83 /  60  10  50  50
MCPHERSON       62  86  63  83 /  30  10  40  50
COFFEYVILLE     61  83  64  82 /  30  10  20  50
CHANUTE         60  83  63  82 /  20  10  20  40
IOLA            60  83  63  82 /  20  10  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    61  83  64  82 /  20  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1012 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-190315-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1012 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND WINDS TO 60 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AS A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY BUT THE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
205 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

KSZ032-180800-
RUSSELL-
205 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR RUSSELL COUNTY...

AT 200 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF LURAY...OR 21 MILES NORTH
OF RUSSELL...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 27 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

COX

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
252 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0249 AM     TSTM WND GST     RUSSELL AIRPORT         38.87N 98.82W
06/18/2008  M64.00 MPH       RUSSELL            KS   ASOS

&&

KED