Severe Thunderstorm Warning 326, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
643 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

.AVIATION...12Z TAF ISSUANCE

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND THE CEILING HEIGHTS.

LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION CONTINUING
TO PROPAGATE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH MORE
CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST KANSAS NOW STARTING TO MOVE TOWARDS
CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AS THE MORNING
WEARS ON. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY
IN THE CEILINGS WITH THE LOWEST OCCURRING AT GREAT BEND AND PRATT
WHERE THEY ARE IN THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORY. CEILING HEIGHTS WILL BE THE
MOST DIFFICULT CHALLENGE TODAY SINCE WE MAY HAVE SOME AREAS OF
SUBSIDENCE AROUND. WE ARE PLAYING THE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE IN THE
MORNING WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1500-2500FT THEN GOING WITH VFR
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

COX

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL DEAL WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY...FOLLOWED BY TRACK/EVOLUTION OF
POSSIBLE MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TDY-TONIGHT
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
850MB FRONT IN CENTRAL KANSAS AS LOCAL PROFILERS SHOW DECENT
CONVERGENCE INTO THAT BOUNDARY. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 310-315K
LAYER SHOULD CAUSE THE PRECIP ACTIVITY TO EXPAND AND MID-LEVEL WINDS
WILL STEER THE ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. WE WILL EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO COVER
THE POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS MCS...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN HIGH. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD CAUSE MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO LATER
TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONGEAL INTO A MCS AND TRACK SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THE MCS MIGHT CLIP PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT BUT EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO
AFFECT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF KANSAS. COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS KANSAS TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS FOR A
CHANGE.

TUE-WED
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THIS PERIOD
WITH EASTERLY FLOW. PRECIP CHANCES COULD LINGER OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS
FOR TUESDAY MORNING BUT PRECIP CHANCES THEREAFTER ARE UNCERTAIN
UNTIL NEXT IMPULSE ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

EXTENDED: THU-SUN
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING
SOUTHEAST AND SETTING OFF ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A MCS MATERIALIZING
ACROSS NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TRACKING IT SOUTHEAST INTO
KANSAS ON THURSDAY.

JAKUB

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL KANSAS TERMINALS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...AND COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD AFFECT SLN/CNU TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  62  80  61 /  30  20  20  20
HUTCHINSON      77  61  80  61 /  30  20  20  20
NEWTON          77  61  80  60 /  40  20  20  10
ELDORADO        77  60  80  58 /  50  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  63  80  61 /  30  30  30  20
RUSSELL         77  58  80  58 /  20  20  20  20
GREAT BEND      76  59  80  59 /  20  20  20  20
SALINA          79  60  80  61 /  40  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       78  61  80  60 /  30  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     79  61  79  59 /  90  20  30  10
CHANUTE         77  58  79  58 /  90  10  20  10
IOLA            77  57  79  58 /  80  10  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    77  60  79  59 /  90  20  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ070>072-094>096-
098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
509 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-171015-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
509 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER THE
MAIN RISK WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL DUE TO
TRAINING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN AFFECT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE GROUND SOILS ARE NEARLY
SATURATED...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE
DETAILS.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS AND TRACK
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS
TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
ONCE AGAIN MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
COLORADO IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...AS A UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

CJ

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