Severe Thunderstorm Warning 317, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
743 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

.UPDATE...
MESO-UPDATE...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY WEST AND
SOUTH OF WICHITA...FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. LATEST MESO DATA
SHOWED RAPIDLY DIMINISHING INHIBITION WHERE AREA OF ACCAS HAS
EXPLODED IN THE LAST HOUR...ACROSS RENO/KINGMAN AND HARPER COUNTIES.
CAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG IN AREA OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MESO-OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEEPEN...WITH STORM MOVEMENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING AREAS JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF WICHITA. OTHER
STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

KED

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF SUITE...COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND
SUB-SYNOPTIC (MESO) BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION THRU THE FIRST PART OF FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SAG SOUTHWARD
THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...WHILE MESO-OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP VCTS IN ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z...WITH
TEMPO GROUP AT FORECAST ISSUANCE FOR KCNU. AFTER 06Z IT
APPEARS RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCES WILL RESIDE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH
OF THE AREA TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THRU THE
FORECAST VALID PERIOD.

KED

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER/FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT:
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NWRN KS INTO FAR SERN NEBRASKA THIS
PM. MCS OVER MISSOURI HAS LAID OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KS. AIRMASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE IN SERN KS SOUTH OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT...WHILE CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS ARE TRYING
TO RECOVER FROM A SMALLER DECAYING MCS THIS AM WHICH DRIED OUT THE
LOW-LEVELS. WITH WINDS NOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY AREAWIDE...UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S DWPTS SHOULD GRADUALLY WORK NWD INTO S-CNTRL/CENTRAL
KS BY LATE PM/EVE. THIS SHOULD CREATE A VERY UNSTABLE TO EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AREAWIDE BY 00Z...WITH 35-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WINDS/VERY LARGE HAIL
APPEAR THE MAIN THREATS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLE STORM-BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.
NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ALONG FRONT IN NRN KS...AND
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALSO LIGHT UP A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS
PM/EVE. THE GFS/NAM-WRF BOTH SHOW IMPRESSIVE 1000-850 FN CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT WORKS SLOWLY SWD ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THIS
PM/TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS LATE THIS PM/EVE IN OUR AREA...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN SERN KS
WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ON EASTERN EDGE OF WARMER
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3-4KM WILL SUPPORT VERY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS SO FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS VALID
FOR SERN KS WHERE RECENT FLOODING HAS OCCURRED OR IS STILL ONGOING
ON A COUPLE RIVERS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES SWD OUT OF KS LATER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG
OUR SWRN TIER COUNTIES WITH BETTER RAIN PROSPECTS SHIFTING INTO OKLAHOMA.

TUESDAY-SUNDAY:
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER MEXICO AND THE SRN ROCKIES INTO FRIDAY
WITH WEAK-MODERATE NWRLY FLOW ALOFT OVER KANSAS. NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO OKLAHOMA TUES INTO WED BEFORE LIFTING NWD INTO KS THURS/FRI
AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGHER T-STORM
CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR SW TUES-WED BUT WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS GOING ESPECIALLY IN OUR SWRN COUNTIES. BY
THURS/FRI...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT NWD UP INTO KS AND
OUR POPS MAY NEED ADJUSTED UPWARD WITH TIME. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS EXPECTED GIVEN EASTERLY COMPONENT MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD.
FOR SAT AND SUN...THE MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE MAY SHIFT A
BIT NEWD TO ENCOMPASS MORE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LESSER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  82  62  80 /  40  20  20  20
HUTCHINSON      65  81  61  80 /  40  20  20  20
NEWTON          65  81  59  80 /  40  20  10  20
ELDORADO        65  82  58  79 /  60  20  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  84  63  80 /  50  20  20  20
RUSSELL         61  80  58  81 /  30  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      63  80  59  80 /  30  10  20  20
SALINA          63  81  61  81 /  30  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       64  81  61  80 /  40  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     66  82  61  80 /  90  20  20  20
CHANUTE         66  81  57  79 /  90  20  10  10
IOLA            65  81  57  79 /  90  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  81  60  79 /  80  20  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ070>072-094>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
809 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-170115-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
809 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HAIL
UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY STORM.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE.

MORE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL MAINLY
MOVE THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT...BUT COULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MORE HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED/JMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
815 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             2 ESE SPIVEY            37.43N 98.14W
06/15/2008  E1.00 INCH       KINGMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
820 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             2 ESE SPIVEY            37.43N 98.14W
06/15/2008  E1.25 INCH       KINGMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
824 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 PM     HAIL             5 SE ZENDA              37.39N 98.21W
06/15/2008  E1.25 INCH       KINGMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JMB

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