Severe Thunderstorm Warning 274, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
621 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF SITES UNLESS
A THUNDERSTORM ROLLS IN WITH THE SLOW SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT.
TERMINALS THAT EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD EXPERIENCE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE...THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND AFFECT THE
TERMINALS OF HUT/ICT/CNU. THE STORMS/SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

JAKUB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008/

DISCUSSION...

THIS EVENING-TONIGHT:
AN UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY /1.5PVU/ WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS HAS CAUSED THE WARM
FRONT FROM SATURDAY TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  AT
18Z...THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM KMHK-KHUT-KP28.  SOME CUMULUS SEEM TO
BE GROWING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS SOUTH.  OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BEGIN INCREASING AS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES ALONG THE FRONT.

FAVORABLE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS SUGGESTS THAT STORMS COULD
ROTATE INITIALLY WITH A HAIL AND WIND THREAT.  HOWEVER...THERE IS
VERY LITTLE 3-6KM SHEAR...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL EVOLVE
INTO A DAMAGING WIND PRODUCING MCS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES THIS
EVENING /QUITE STRONG OVERNIGHT/ AS THE FRONT BECOMES MORE
ORTHOGONAL TO THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT...INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND
VERY STRONG VERTICAL MOTIONS.

WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS NEAR 4KM CONTINUE TO FAVOR THIS ONCE WE
TRANSITION FROM A SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT TO A WARM RAIN THREAT.
MODEL QPF TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT ALL SHOW SOME TYPE OF 9 INCH
ACCUMULATION BULLSEYE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  THE FAVORABLE AREA
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED SOUTH A BIT

TUESDAY:
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST.  THERE IS A REASONABLE
AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
TIME...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY:
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.  LOOKS AS THOUGH THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL
PUSH EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW.  THIS IS A GREAT SETUP FOR A
FEW ISOLATED DISCREET SUPERCELLS.  THE MID LEVEL WINDS REMAIN
RELATIVELY ORTHOGONAL TO THE DRYLINE ALLOWING FOR DISCREET
SUPERCELLS TO MOVE OFF OF THE DRYLINE.  THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED IN THE
CORRECT DIRECTION IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH THE NEXT STRONG PV ANOMALY MOVING INTO
THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.  THIS WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE IN THIS AND IS INCREASING GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY IN THE
MODELS IS SHOWING THIS AND THAT...RELATIVELY SPEAKING...THE
PREDICTABILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
THE DRYLINE REMAINS OVER WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE PERIOD.  MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW FAVORABLE FOR ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.  AT THIS TIME...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

KRC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  77  57  85 / 100  30  10  20
HUTCHINSON      58  80  56  86 /  90  20  10  20
NEWTON          59  76  56  83 / 100  30  10  20
ELDORADO        61  76  56  82 / 100  40  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  76  56  84 / 100  50  10  10
RUSSELL         56  82  55  86 /  60  10   0  20
GREAT BEND      56  80  56  85 /  70  10   0  20
SALINA          59  81  58  85 /  70  10   0  20
MCPHERSON       58  79  56  85 /  90  20  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     67  72  57  84 /  90  80  20  10
CHANUTE         67  74  57  83 / 100  70  20  10
IOLA            65  75  58  84 / 100  60  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  73  57  84 /  90  80  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ052-053-
068>072-083-092>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KSZ050-051-067-082-
091.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
315 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-092015-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
315 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES LIKELY AND ISOLATED
AMOUNTS TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE...FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
AREAS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDDAY.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SUCH
ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...SO ONE SHOULD LISTEN FOR
LATER HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS AS THIS...TOO...MAY BE A VOLATILE
SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH- CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
ALSO...ANY PRECIPITATION REPORTS WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KRC

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