River Flood Warning 38, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
655 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE: KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WIDESPREAD RA/TSRA TO PERSIST OVER PRIMARILY KCNU TIL 15Z DURING
WHICH TIME LOCALIZED 3SM VSBYS ARE LIKELY. CIGS & VSBYS TO IMPROVE
RAPIDLY WITH VFR CATEGORIES ANTICIPATED FROM 15Z ONWARD. CLEAR
SKIES & LIGHT WIND COMBINED WITH SOAKED GROUNDS WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KCNU TOWARD END OF 12Z TAF CYCLE. NO AVIATION
CONCERNS ARE/WILL BE PRESENT AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2008/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS/HIGHLIGHTS WILL FOCUS ON
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS MORNING-TODAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
POSSIBLY BEYOND.

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FESTER ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BEING AIDED BY RIGHT-REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET AHEAD OF
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND 850-700MB ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL FOCUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THIS MORNING...SO CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THERE UNTIL 1PM.
THINKING GOOD MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA BY THEN. ZONE OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY AID IN SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR A TIME THIS MORNING FARTHER NORTH/NORTHWEST. FOR ALL AREAS...NOT
ANTICIPATING SEVERE STORMS...AS AIRMASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY
GOOD. THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS DEPICT A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL KS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AMPLE SUNSHINE...RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OWING TO COLD AIR ALOFT
UNDERNEATH SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MAY RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE WEATHER DUE
TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE...BUT ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING...LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

DESPITE RAPID MOISTURE RETURN...REMOVED POPS FOR TUESDAY DUE TO
LARGE CAP AND POOR LIFT TO FORCE PARCELS THROUGH THE CAP.
HOWEVER...800-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT...ON EDGE OF ADVANCING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/CAP...AS POTENT
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST. SO THINKING A FEW
STORMS MAY FORM OVER CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT.

REMOVED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY TOO...AS DRYLINE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING A CAPPED WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING LOW-PRESSURE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WEDNESDAY.

LIKELY THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH POSSIBLY FRIDAY.
DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING
TIMING...STRENGTH...PLACEMENT AND AMPLITUDE...BOTH MODELS PROGRESS A
RATHER SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DURING THIS TIME. AMPLE
FORCING...INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DUE TO
UPPER FORCING MOSTLY REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA...THIS FRONT MAY
TEND TO STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
THREAT. STAY TUNED.

KLEINSASSER

AVIATION...
06Z TAF ISSUANCE: KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
NUMEROUS TSRA TO PERSIST ACROSS SRN KS...PRIMARILY KICT & KCNU...
WHERE LOCALIZED VSBYS 3SM (+)TSRA & CIGS OVC025CB ARE LIKELY TIL
14-15Z. CIGS & VSBYS IMPROVE RAPIDLY THEREAFTER WITH ALTOCUMULUS
DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ANTICIPATED.

EPS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78  56  86  72 /  30   0  10  20
HUTCHINSON      80  56  87  72 /  20   0  10  20
NEWTON          78  55  85  71 /  20   0  10  20
ELDORADO        77  56  84  71 /  40   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  56  85  71 /  80   0  10  10
RUSSELL         83  55  89  71 /  20   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      82  56  89  72 /  20   0  10  20
SALINA          81  56  86  72 /  20   0  10  20
MCPHERSON       80  56  86  72 /  10   0  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     74  56  85  71 /  90  10  10  10
CHANUTE         75  56  84  71 /  80  10  10  10
IOLA            75  57  84  71 /  70   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    75  56  84  71 /  90  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ071-072-
093>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
425 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-100930-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
425 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...BUT ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
MAY OCCUR. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
DETAILS.

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING...AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...DUE
TO CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST
AIR SURGES NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF DIME SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THIS STORM
SYSTEM...SO ONE SHOULD LISTEN FOR LATER HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT MAY
BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KLEINSASSER