Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1204 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF SUITE.
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THREAT CONTINUES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THIS CONVECTION CHANCE WILL BE PRIMARILY OVER
THE KICT/KHUT SITES INITIALLY.  SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
THIS THREAT WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN AND NEAR THE TSRA. EXPECT
THIS CONVECTION TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO SOUTHEAST KS EARLY ON SUN
BY 18Z...SO WILL ADD ANOTHER VCTS GROUP FOR KCNU DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.

REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008/

UPDATE...

CURRENT CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER SOUTHEAST KS AT THIS TIME AS LOW
LEVEL JET BEGINS TO INTENSIFY OVER THE TOP OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY LOCATED...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER.  CURRENT
WATCH LOOKS OKAY FOR NOW...AS NEODESHA PROFILER CONTINUES TO SHOW
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF
TORNADO. EXPECT TORNADO THREAT TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER 06Z AS LOW
LEVEL INVERSION INCREASES...MAKING THE SUPERCELLS MORE ELEVATED.
ALSO CONTEMPLATED NIXING A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS FROM THE
WATCH BOX...BUT CURRENT LOOK AT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A MID
LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE OF OK...WHICH COULD
INCREASE CONVECTION IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE BOX AS THE OVERNIGHT
PROGRESSES.

NEXT CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY TIME FRAME AS
LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY.
LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR SETUP TO LAST NIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 305-310K LAYER TIGHTENS. THIS WILL AGAIN LEAD
TO CONVECTION FIRING ALONG A HUT-ICT-WLD LINE SOMETIME BETWEEN
09-12Z/SUN.   ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR AGAIN SUGGESTS
ELEVATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. INSTABILITY ACTUALLY LOOKS HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT. COULD SEE A LITTLE LATER INITIATION TIME THAN LAST NIGHT...AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WARM AIR ALOFT UNTIL AFTER 09Z/SUN. BUT
THIS WARM AIR ALOFT ERODES BY 12Z/SUN. SO CERTAINLY WILL SEE STORMS
BY 12Z/SUN.

STORMS COULD TRAIN OVER SOME OF THE SAME AREAS AS SATURDAY
MORNING...SO FLOOD WATCH LOOKS WARRANTED AS WELL.

KETCHAM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF SUITE.
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS
THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO DRIFT TOWARDS KCNU AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES.  SO WILL CARRY SOME VCTS IN THIS AREA FROM
02-06Z/SUN.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THREAT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KS AFTER 08Z/SUN.  THIS CONVECTION CHANCE WILL BE PRIMARILY OVER
THE KICT/KHUT SITES INITIALLY.  SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
THIS THREAT WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN AND NEAR THE TSRA. EXPECT
THIS CONVECTION TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO SOUTHEAST KS BY 18Z...SO
WILL ADD ANOTHER VCTS GROUP FOR KCNU DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

KETCHAM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS...HEAVY RAINFALL/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WITH ANOTHER MCS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...

COULD BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ANOTHER SEVERE EPISODE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. VERY UNSTABLE ELEVATED CAPES GREATER THAN
2200 J/KG ROOTED AROUND 800 MB WILL FOCUS ALONG FRONT FROM
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE GFS/NAM AGAIN SHOW
FOCUSED LIFT UP THRU 700MB WITHIN THIS ZONE INTO WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE THE LATE NIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD
ORIGINATE. THE STEERING FLOW WOULD THEN TAKE THIS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF I-70 INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND VERY UNSTABLE ELEVATED AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT ROTATING
STORMS WITH POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE HAIL AGAIN. SOME BACK
BUILDING AND REPEAT/TRAINING ECHOES EXPECTED AGAIN...WHICH
WILL ALSO PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOME OF THE SAME AREAS
FROM LAST NIGHT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW AND WILL
HOIST A FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 UNTIL 21Z SUNDAY.
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL
SHIFT INTO PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY LATE MORNING ON
SUNDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING OR SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
WITH THE EXPECTED MCS AND REMNANT DEBRI POSSIBLY LASTING A
BIT LONGER INTO SUNDAY...HAVE CONTINUED TO CUT MAX TEMPS
BACK A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

ANOTHER NOCTURNAL/EARLY MORNING MCS COULD AGAIN EVOLVE
FURTHER NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS FRONT BEGINS
TO LIFT NORTH...ORIGINATING AND AFFECTING PRIMARILY CENTRAL
KANSAS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. OUTSIDE
OF THE LARGER NOCTURNAL EVENTS...SOME LATE DAY SEVERE
CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY EVENING...THOUGH MODE
AND INITIATION WILL BE PREDICATED ON MESO EFFECTS OF PRIOR
CONVECTION AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS LOOK TO WARM MORE NOTICEABLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH CAPPING INVERSION
EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

WITH FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE
SHORT TERM...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.
THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A RATHER DEEP UPPER TROF
MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY...WHICH MAY
PROVIDE RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
AGAIN BY THEN.

DARMOFAL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  91  69  91 /  50  50  10  10
HUTCHINSON      64  90  69  89 /  60  60  10  20
NEWTON          64  89  68  89 /  60  60  20  20
ELDORADO        65  89  69  89 /  60  60  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  91  71  92 /  40  40  10  10
RUSSELL         62  89  67  87 /  60  60  20  20
GREAT BEND      62  90  68  88 /  60  60  10  20
SALINA          63  88  68  88 /  60  60  20  20
MCPHERSON       63  89  68  88 /  60  60  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     67  89  71  92 /  40  40  10  10
CHANUTE         66  87  70  89 /  50  50  10  10
IOLA            66  86  70  88 /  60  60  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    66  89  71  90 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ047-050>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
449 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-012200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
449 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING...AND AFFECT MUCH OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...UP TO
BASEBALL SIZE AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...WILL AFFECT
AREAS SOUTH OF A GREAT BEND TO MCPHERSON TO IOLA LINE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED IN THIS AREA...WHICH MAY RESULT
IN LOW-LAND FLOODING. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF
TORNADO BEFORE MIDNIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER COUNTIES
OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
LINGER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
STORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN RISKS THOUGH A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE ON SUNDAY EVENING.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA PERIODICALLY
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR LATER OUTLOOKS AS DETAILS BECOME
CLEARER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...FOR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN ON SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1226 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1224 AM     HAIL             1 S CHANUTE             37.66N 95.46W
06/01/2008  E1.75 INCH       NEOSHO             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BDK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1241 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1238 AM     HAIL             2 N CANEY               37.04N 95.93W
06/01/2008  E1.75 INCH       MONTGOMERY         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1243 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1237 AM     HAIL             3 S HAVANA              37.05N 95.94W
06/01/2008  E1.00 INCH       MONTGOMERY         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ADK