Severe Thunderstorm Warning 179, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1253 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL...EXTENSIVE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY 08Z OR SO. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
IMPINGES ON SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND SURFACE COLD DOME LAID DOWN FROM
RECENT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AM THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...AS CURRENT RADAR IS
INDICATING...WHERE AIRMASS IS LESS DISTURBED/OVERTURNED.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...AS SYNOPTIC
FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY FILTER SOUTH AS COLD
ADVECTION COMMENCES IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY AFFECT THE RUSSELL TERMINAL BEFORE 12Z.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL...WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SLOWLY SOUTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA...AND LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS
EVENING. COVERED THIS THREAT WITH VCTS FOR ALL AREAS...ALONG WITH
TEMPO GROUPS OVER THE NEXT 4 HOURS. WILL LIKELY BE MAKING SEVERAL
AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION.
MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF KANSAS ON TUESDAY...ALONG WITH DRIZZLE AND LOWER VSBYS...AS
COLD ADVECTION COMMENCES BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...MORE
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AHEAD OF FRONT. WILL
MAKE TIMELY AMENDMENTS WHEN/WHERE NECESSARY.

KLEINSASSER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008/

DISCUSSION...

VERY CHALLENGING FIRST PERIOD FORECAST WITH SEVERE CONVECTION AND
FLOODING POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS:
CURRENTLY HAVE A WARM FRONT SAGGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND EXTENDS
FROM JUST NORTH OF KSLN TO NORTH OF KDDC. AN AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...EVIDENT BY BETTER CU FIELD...EXTENDS FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE AND INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER ENERGY SITUATED NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH A SPEED MAX ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE TROUGH.

TONIGHT:
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN KANSAS HAS BEEN DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 310-315K SURFACE. THIS ACTIVITY KICKED OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CAUSING ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TREND CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST WITH ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE/BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE CURRENTLY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...OR CLOSER TO WARM FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SE KS THIS
EVENING. WITH SAGGING SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGING ALONG THIS FEATURE...A CLASSIC FLOODING SCENARIO IS
SETTING UP FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. WITH GROUNDS
ALREADY SATURATED FROM STORMS THIS MORNING...WILL GO WITH A FLOOD
WATCH FOR BASICALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
18Z TUE. WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...AM CONFIDENT WELL GET
INTO SOME RIVER FLOODING FOR AREAS OF SE KS OVERNIGHT INTO TUE.

CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS DECREASES WITH THE ACTIVITY FURTHER
WEST. STORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE
TX PANHANDLE BUT THERE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE A WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY
TO FOCUS ACTIVITY ON...WITH THE DRYLINE MUCH FURTHER WEST. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT STORMS WILL FESTER OVER SOUTHERN AND SW PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREAT. FEEL THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL COME CLOSE TO OR A
BIT AFTER 00Z AS LOW LEVEL JET GETS CRANKED UP. HAIL AND HIGH WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STORM OVERNIGHT. FEEL THE BEST TOR
THREAT WILL BE THROUGH 03Z WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEST OF FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FRINGES OF FORECAST
AREA.

TUE-THU:
SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY SOUTH ON TUE AND BY 00Z WED
WILL BE SITUATED FROM NEAR KCNU TO NEAR KOKC. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO FESTER ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THEREFORE
SE KS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUE AND A CONTINUED FLOODING THREAT. ALSO CANT RULE OUT SOME
HAILERS OVER SE KS DURING THE DAY TUE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STAYING AROUND. BY 12Z WED THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL JUST LINGER A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER EXTREME SE
KS FOR ANYTHING STAYING JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUE
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO  REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS WITH
RETURN FLOW STARTING BACK UP FOR THE WESTERN HALF. WITH EXPECTED
RIDGE OVER AREA...WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY FOR THU AND THU NIGHT.

FRI-MON:
BOTH ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON LIFTING THE UPPER WAVE TO OUR SW INTO
EXTREME NW KS/NE DURING THE DAY FRI. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES
EAST...IT WILL DRAG A SURFACE TROUGH DOWN THROUGH THE AREA ON FRI
NIGHT. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
FOR FRI NIGHT. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS THIS
WAVE QUICKLY MOVES OFF GIVING WAY TO WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST. A
DEEPER AND MORE POWERFUL UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ON SHORE ON
MON...POSSIBLY GETTING US BACK INTO SEVERE WEATHER MODE FOR THE
BEGINNING/MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS THROUGH THESE PERIODS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S.

LAWSON

AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF SUITE.
CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AT THIS
TIME.  WILL KEEP SOME VCTS IN THE KCNU TAF FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL THIS CONVECTION COMES TO AN END.  ALSO NOTED
SOME MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  EXPECT THIS
CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY BURN OFF AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO CONVECTION CHANCES TO THE WEST OF KHUT/KRSL
AND KICT THIS EVENING. WILL GO WITH VCTS NEAR THESE AREA AFTER 23Z
AND EXTEND IT UNTIL 06Z AS CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  WILL ALSO
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR WITH SOME STRONGER STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS KHUT/KICT AREAS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  72  58  86 /  30  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      50  69  58  86 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          52  71  58  84 /  20  10  10  10
ELDORADO        54  72  58  84 /  30  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  74  59  86 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELL         45  68  56  87 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      46  68  56  87 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          48  70  55  85 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       49  70  57  85 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  76  59  84 /  50  20  10  10
CHANUTE         56  74  58  82 /  40  20  10  10
IOLA            54  73  58  82 /  30  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    58  75  59  83 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ053-069>072-093>096-
098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1135 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-280445-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1135 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WINDS TO 60
MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. STORMS REDEVELOPING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS
WILL BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE. OF GREATEST INTEREST THOUGH
IS THE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WITH GROUNDS SATURATED FROM RAINS OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
FLOODING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SOME RIVER FLOODING
POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM EUREKA TO EL DORADO TO WELLINGTON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY FROM HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. LATER
OUTLOOKS WILL CONTAIN MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO CHECK LATER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ACCESS TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS...AND
PLAN ON WHAT YOU WILL DO IF SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING THREATENS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

PJH/RBL/ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1118 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W WEST WICHITA        37.69N 97.50W
05/26/2008                   SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SIX TO TWELVE INCHES OF WATER IS COVERING MAPLE BETWEEN
            119TH AND 135TH. ALSO...SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG 135TH ARE
            COVERED WITH WATER.

&&

ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1141 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ENE ROSE HILL         37.58N 97.08W
05/26/2008                   BUTLER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            7 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER COVERING INDIANOLA RD. BETWEEN
            170TH AND 180TH, FOR ABOUT 1/2 MILE.

&&

JMB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1159 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

KSZ070-094-095-270545-
ELK-GREENWOOD-WILSON-
1159 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR ELK...GREENWOOD AND WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 1155 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FALL RIVER...OR 13 MILES
NORTHWEST OF FREDONIA...AND MOVING EAST AT 36 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

COX

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
122 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

KSZ032-270715-
RUSSELL-
122 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR RUSSELL COUNTY...

AT 120 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WALKER...AND MOVING EAST AT 29 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

COX