Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
618 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT SOME TAFS SITES IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BOTH THIS MORNING AT KSLN...KICT AND KCNU ESPECIALLY AS
WELL AS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOME FOG COULD
DEVELOP AT KCNU TOWARD MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.

SCHRECK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN TODAY AND THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

TODAY-TONIGHT:
THE EVENING CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH SOME STRATIFORM RAIN LINGERING OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE NOSE OF AN
850MB JET. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME AS THE JET
POINTS MORE TO THE EAST BY MORNING. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN
OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN WIDESPREAD FLOODING WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN
JUST A FEW HOURS AT MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 135.

THE SURFACE FRONT IS STILL LAYING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
MORNING...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT WILL
TRACK EASTWARD TODAY...AND EVENTUALLY BRING THE SEVERE THREAT EAST
OF THE AREA. THE BEST SHEAR IS IN THE LOWEST 3KM TODAY...AND
INSTABILITY IS GOOD ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE WHERE STORMS CAN DEVELOP ON ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES
DURING PEAK HEATING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS COULD HAVE SOME HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
BY EARLY EVENING...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING STORMS INTO THE
NIGHT. AS FAR AS THE FLOOD WATCH...WE HAVE DEBATED ADDING SEDGWICK
AND SUMNER COUNTIES...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THESE TWO COUNTIES WILL NOT
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY THE TIME THE STORMS DEVELOP. WE WILL KEEP
THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS SINCE THAT IS WHERE THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN
FLOODING AND LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA THAT COULD SEE
FLOODING LATER TODAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN A DIFFICULT FORECAST TODAY WITH ALL FACTORS
CONSIDERED. THERE WILL BE A LARGE CONTRAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH UPPER 50S EXPECTED IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND AROUND 80 IN
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
A BREAK IN THE ACTION WILL FINALLY COME FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. WE LEFT SOME LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL NOT BE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. OTHERWISE THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT SHOULD RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

FRIDAY-MONDAY:
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SCHRECK

AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL...EXTENSIVE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY 08Z OR SO. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
IMPINGES ON SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND SURFACE COLD DOME LAID DOWN FROM
RECENT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AM THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...AS CURRENT RADAR IS
INDICATING...WHERE AIRMASS IS LESS DISTURBED/OVERTURNED.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...AS SYNOPTIC
FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY FILTER SOUTH AS COLD
ADVECTION COMMENCES IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY AFFECT THE RUSSELL TERMINAL BEFORE 12Z.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  53  72  58 /  50  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON      69  49  69  58 /  50  30  10  10
NEWTON          72  51  71  58 /  50  30  10  10
ELDORADO        75  53  72  58 /  60  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  55  74  59 /  60  40  10  10
RUSSELL         59  44  68  56 /  50  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      61  45  68  56 /  50  20  10  10
SALINA          65  47  70  55 /  50  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  48  70  57 /  50  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     80  58  76  59 /  70  60  20  10
CHANUTE         76  55  74  58 /  70  60  20  10
IOLA            75  53  73  58 /  70  50  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    79  57  75  59 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KSZ053-069>072-093>096-
098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
509 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-281015-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
509 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

NUMEROUS AREAL AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FOR DETAILS.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM EUREKA TO
EL DORADO TO WELLINGTON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THURSDAY AT SOME LOCATIONS. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FOR
DETAILS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. LATER OUTLOOKS
WILL CONTAIN MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO CHECK LATER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED TODAY...MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE ACCESS TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS...AND PLAN ON WHAT
YOU WILL DO IF SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING THREATENS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF A
EUREKA TO EL DORADO TO WELLINGTON LINE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SCHRECK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
315 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

KSZ082-083-092-270900-
KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-SUMNER-
315 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN KINGMAN...WESTERN SEDGWICK AND NORTHERN
SUMNER COUNTIES...

AT 313 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES WEST OF
CHENEY TO ARGONIA...AND MOVING EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 24 MPH.

PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

KLEINSASSER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
350 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

KSZ051-052-067-068-270930-
HARVEY-MARION-MCPHERSON-RENO-
350 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR HARVEY...MARION...MCPHERSON AND RENO COUNTIES...

AT 347 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOUNDRIDGE...AND MOVING EAST TO NORTHEAST
AT 26 MPH.

PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

KLEINSASSER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
353 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

KSZ069-083-092-270945-
BUTLER-SEDGWICK-SUMNER-
353 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR BUTLER...SEDGWICK AND SUMNER COUNTIES...

AT 351 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ANDALE TO 5 MILES
SOUTH OF GODDARD TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CLEARWATER...AND MOVING
EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 26 MPH.

PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 40 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

KLEINSASSER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
553 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

KSZ069-093-271145-
BUTLER-COWLEY-
553 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR BUTLER AND NORTHERN COWLEY COUNTIES...

AT 550 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST WICHITA TO
UDALL...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

HOWERTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
611 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       COFFEYVILLE             37.04N 95.63W
05/27/2008  M5.45 INCH       MONTGOMERY         KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RAINFALL TOTAL IS A 24 HOUR ENDING AT 6 AM. THE LAST 12
            HOURS RAINFALL WAS 0.55 INCHES.

&&

LFW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
616 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 AM     FLOOD            3 S NICKERSON           38.10N 98.09W
05/27/2008                   RENO               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            INTERSECTION OF NICKERSON ROAD AND 43RD STREET FLOODED.

0605 AM     FLOOD            3 W BURRTON             38.02N 97.73W
05/27/2008                   RENO               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            INTERSECTION OF ILLINOIS AVENUE AND RAYL ROAD WASHED OUT.

&&

EPS