Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
208 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

...SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-65
THROUGH 600PM THIS EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...PRONOUNCED DRYLINE/WIND SHIFT PUNCHING INTO NW/WC
ALABAMA AT 19Z...WITH STRONG/SEVERE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
ORIENTED ALONG THE I-65/I-59 CORRIDOR. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS
ARE LOCATED BETWEEN TUSCALOOSA AND HALEYVILLE ATTM WITH LOW LVL
ROTATION NOTED BY 88D VELOCITY/SRM FIELDS. BROKEN LINE MOVING
ACROSS HUN CFWA HAS PRODUCED ISOLATED DAMAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHWEST ALABAMA...BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. TORNADO WATCH
278 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-65 UNTIL 600 PM.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BROKEN LINE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL DISCRETE
CELLS THAT DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH...THAT
COULD BECOME TORNADIC. OTHER THAN AN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM...WRN COUNTIES
ARE NO LONGER UNDER A SEVERE THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD AS A SERIES OF FAST-MOVING STORM SYSTEMS
IMPACT THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE THROUGH SUNDAY. CONVECTION WILL COME
TO AN END FROM WEST-TO-EAST EARLY THIS EVENING AS DRIER/MORE STABLE
WESTERLIES PUNCH IN BEHIND WEAKENING SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. AS WINDS BECOME CALM WITHIN STABLE/MOIST BNDRY LYR...EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

LOW LVL RIDGING FRIDAY WILL PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW LVL CONVG FROM LINGERING SFC TROUGH
ALONG WITH WEAK UPR LVL ENERGY TRAVERSING THE AREA COULD SUPPORT
ISOLD ELEVATED TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE INCLUDED 20
POPS FRIDAY. WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE TSTM
POTENTIAL FRIDAY. THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING FRI NGT AS
SFC WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG AN APPROACHING LOW LVL FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE 12Z/NAM IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF FRI NGT...ACCOUNTING FOR
SUFFICIENT LIFT/LOW LVL FORCING. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY AND
UPR LVL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH 120+KT H3 SPEED MAX NOSING IN FROM
THE WEST. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED ALONG AND NORTH OF WHERE
THE BOUNDARY EXISTS...RESULTING IN PRIMARILY A HAIL THREAT. JUST
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SFC-BASED WHICH
COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLD TORNADIC THREAT. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD
ARISE IF STORMS TRAIN ALONG LOW LVL BOUNDARY. ALL THIS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SATURDAY...PERSISTENT LOW LVL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA AS UPR LVL S/W RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE INITIATION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ATTM. SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY
HOWEVER...A MORE INTENSE UPR LVL TROUGH/SFC FRONT WILL SWING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE UPR MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER SHOT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATE SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY. DETAILS
ON THIS EVENT REMAIN PRETTY SKETCHY...SO WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER
GENERAL DISCUSSION ON THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
DEEPENING UPR TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT ENTERS THE NORTHEAST WITH
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING WELL SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
COOLER/DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY INTO AT LEAST
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. ANOTHER DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF FRONT /GREATEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP/ APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH THE H5 TROUGH PASSAGE
OCCURRING WED NGT. NADLER.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    60  84  62  81 /  40  20  20  10
SHOALS        59  84  61  80 /  20  20  20  10
CULLMAN       59  82  60  81 /  40  20  20  10
FAYETTEVILLE  59  80  60  76 /  40  20  30  10
ALBERTVILLE   59  84  61  82 /  50  20  20  10
FORT PAYNE    60  82  59  81 /  60  20  30  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

DJN.83

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1255 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-090300-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1255 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE DRIVEN NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 65
THROUGH 4 PM. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...ENDING THE
SEVERE THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL STALL OVER
EITHER NORTHERN OR CENTRAL ALABAMA. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH THE FRONT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.
IF THIS FRONT IS IN THE VICINITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE WARM
SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST SOUTH OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR
MOST OF SATURDAY...BEFORE IT RETURNS NORTHWARD AGAIN AS A WARM
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER STORM
SYSTEM. ONCE THE WARM FRONT PASSES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER DOES
APPEAR TO BE POSSIBLE. INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR FUTURE
FORECASTS AS THIS EVENT GETS CLOSER.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY NIGHT...AND IS LIKELY AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

KTW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1220 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W OAKLAND             34.84N 87.89W
05/08/2008                   LAUDERDALE         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            UP TO TWO HOUSES DAMAGED WITH POWERLINES DOWN NEAR
            INTERSECTION OF CR 14 AND 16.

&&

MP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1223 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W FLORENCE            34.80N 87.77W
05/08/2008                   LAUDERDALE         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            UP TO TWO HOUSES DAMAGED WITH POWERLINES DOWN NEAR
            INTERSECTION OF CR 14 AND 16 IN OAKLAND.

&&

MP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1225 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

ALZ002>004-081815-
COLBERT-FRANKLIN-LAWRENCE-
1225 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR COLBERT...FRANKLIN AND LAWRENCE
COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

AT 1225 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF PHIL CAMPBELL...OR 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF RUSSELLVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. AN ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING THUNDERSTORM IS LOCATED IN WESTERN MARION COUNTY...AND
IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  ROCKWOOD.
  SPRUCE PINE.
  RUSSELLVILLE.
  PLEASANT RIDGE.
  THARPTOWN.
  NEWBURG.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES...TREE
LIMBS...AND POWERLINES. SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA.

BCC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
135 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W FLORENCE            34.80N 87.77W
05/08/2008                   LAUDERDALE         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            UP TO TWO HOUSES DAMAGED WITH POWERLINES DOWN NEAR
            INTERSECTION OF CR 14 AND 16 IN OAKLAND.

1205 PM     TORNADO          OAKLAND                 34.84N 87.80W
05/08/2008                   LAUDERDALE         AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO REPORTED ON GROUND BY NWS SPOTTERS.

1240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TOWN CREEK              34.68N 87.41W
05/08/2008                   LAWRENCE           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE CABIN TOTALLY DESTROYED WITH ROOF DAMAGE TO OTHER
            CABINS AT THE DOUBLE HEAD RESORT IN TOWN CREEK.

1253 PM     TORNADO          NE LEIGHTON             34.70N 87.53W
05/08/2008                   COLBERT            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AND HOUSE HEAVILY DAMAGED ON
            LAWRENCE/COLBERT CO LINES ALONG HWY 184 NE OF LEIGHTON.
            ANOTHER HOUSE ON RIVER RD. ALSO HEAVILY DAMAGED.

1259 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEIGHTON                34.70N 87.53W
05/08/2008                   COLBERT            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWERLINES DOWN ON FOSTER MILL RD IN LEIGHTON.

&&

MP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
141 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N ROGERSVILLE         34.85N 87.29W
05/08/2008                   LAUDERDALE         AL   STORM CHASER

            TWO FOOT DIAMETER TREE BLOWN DOWN 2 MILES N OF
            ROGERSVILLE.

&&

MP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
146 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N ROGERSVILLE         34.85N 87.29W
05/08/2008                   LAUDERDALE         AL   STORM CHASER

            TWO FOOT DIAMETER TREE BLOWN DOWN 2 MILES N OF
            ROGERSVILLE.

&&

MP