Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
148 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT STILL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT
THIS HOUR...WITH RADAR COVERAGE INCREASING AS CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AT HAND. PER 16Z
REDSTONE RAOB...CAPE VALUES ARE 3000 J/KG WITH WINDEX VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SPC
HAS EXPANDED THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK AGAIN...ENCOMPASSING AREAS FURTHER
WEST INTO CNTRL TN AND INCLUDING EXTREME NERN AL. THE MAIN THREATS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN ADDITION TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. CURRENT
ATTENTION IS FOCUSED MORESO ON THE WIND THREAT AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT WILL STILL MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL.

NOW...FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS THE MAJOR STORY FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
GIVEN THE CURRENT WX PATTERN...BUT MODEL OF CHOICE WAS PREDOMINATELY
THE GFS FOR TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. QPF DIFFERED
QUITE A BIT BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT MOST WERE TRENDING TOWARD A
WETTER PATTERN FOR THIS SYSTEM. PWATS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO AOA
2...AND WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA...HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WITH
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN PLACE. TOMORROW POSES A BIT OF A PROBLEM
BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA
BY FRIDAY...BUT AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT WITH EXACTLY WHERE. HIGHER POPS
WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER WITH POPS DECREASING TO THE
NORTH AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. POPS ARE STILL INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS
DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A TROUGHING PATTERN IN THE ERN
CONUS...WHICH IS APPARENTLY THE COMPLETE OPPOSITE OF WHAT THEY WERE
SHOWING YESTERDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPINNING OVER THE UPR MIDWEST WITH A CDFNT DRAPED ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...A CDFNT WILL ENTER NW AL
SOMETIME BETWEEN 00Z MONDAY AND 6Z MONDAY AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPS. WITH THAT SAID...AGREE WITH THE MID-SHIFT ISSUANCE THIS
MORNING AND AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS ACTUALLY PANNING OUT. A GUESS AS TO
WHY THIS SOLUTION SUDDENLY APPEARS IS MOST LIKELY HURRICANE BERTHA
IN THE ATLANTIC. FOR NOW...THIS POSSIBLE SOLUTION IS ON THE RADAR
SCREEN FOR LACK OF A BETTER PHRASE...BUT NOT MUCH STOCK WILL BE PUT
INTO IT FOR NOW. MUCH MORE BELIEVABLE IN THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER...
IS THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE VIRGINIAS. AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES EASTWARD...ALLOWING FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION TO LIKELY DEVELOP. WILL ALLOW LATER MODEL RUNS TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THOUGH BEFORE ADDING THIS TO THE GRIDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    71  86  69  89 /  60  60  30  30
SHOALS        70  86  69  90 /  60  60  30  30
CULLMAN       70  85  69  88 /  50  60  30  30
FAYETTEVILLE  71  85  69  87 /  60  60  30  30
ALBERTVILLE   71  86  69  88 /  50  60  30  30
FORT PAYNE    71  86  68  89 /  50  60  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1235 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-100100-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1235 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL INTERACT WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON TO CREATE THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BECOMING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. IMPACTS OF FLOODING
COULD INCREASE OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVE ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN.
FLOOD IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND
WITH AN ONGOING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE REQUESTED FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
242 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008

ALZ001-002-092045-
COLBERT-LAUDERDALE-
242 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEAST COLBERT AND EASTERN
LAUDERDALE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 242 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR UNDERWOOD-PETERSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  OAKLAND.
  SHEFFIELD.
  UNDERWOOD-PETERSVILLE.
  SAINT FLORIAN.
  FORD CITY.
  KILLEN.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

KULA

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