Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
346 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
MIDWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING THEN A
CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA WILL LINGER THRU THE NGT AS PATCHY F FORMS.
WILL USE GFS40 AND MAV MOS. SEVERE TSTM WATCH IN EFFECT THRU 8 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR NRN NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP THE FA
IN VERY WARM AND HUMID WX ON SATURDAY WITH A CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA.
SOME TSTMS MAY BE STRONG TO PSBLY SEVERE. WITH SEVERE WEATHER
OCCURRING NOW WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN THE ZONES FOR TOMORROW AT
THIS TIME. USED GFS40 AND MAV MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS THE TRACK OF A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS THAT WILL AFFECT
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS WANTS
TO RUN THE LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH PRODUCING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE GETTING INVOLVED WITH THE SYSTEM.
THE NAM IS FARTHER NORTH AND KEEPS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THE 12Z ECMWF IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. I LEANED TOWARD A
BLEND OF THESE 2 MODELS. PRECIPITATION COULD BE HEAVY LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...VFR EXCEPT IN ANY STRONG TO PSBLY
SEVERE TSTMS INTO THIS EVENING OR IN ANY LATE NGT VALLEY F. CHC
FOR STRONG TSTMS AGAIN SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SAT NGT IN SHOWERS AND FOG. SUNDAY
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR EXCEPT IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN LWR TO
MVFR/IFR AND THIS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. VFR
EXPECT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BLO SCA
LVLS THOUGH SWELLS WILL BE CLOSE TO 5 FT THRU PART OF TNGT DUE TO
A SE SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM BERTHA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA MAY BE MET SUNDAY NGT THROUGH TUES AM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
130 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

MEZ007-012-018>020-023>025-NHZ001>010-013-014-191730-
NORTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN OXFORD-INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-
ANDROSCOGGIN-COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-NORTHERN COOS-
SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-
SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-
INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
130 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 698 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MEZ008-009-013-014-021-022-026>028-191730-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-
SOUTHERN SOMERSET-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
130 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ASSOCIATED COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ150-151-191730-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
130 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PENOBSCOT BAY AND THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ASSOCIATED COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ152>154-191730-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
130 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 698 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA AND THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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