Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1145 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
TODAY...AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR FILTERS IN FORM THE SOUTH.
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THEN...ANOTHER FRONT WILL
BECOME STALLED OVER THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT
INTO MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA AND EXTRAPOLATE THRU
THE FCST FOR TDA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. WILL CON
ENHANCED WORDING /SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN/ FOR
TSTMS THRU 18Z. AFTER 18Z WILL INCREASED THE ENHANCED WORDING
/SMALL HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING/
EVEN MORE.

SPC HAS ALMOST ENTIRE FA IN SLGT RISK AND CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD
FOR SEVERE WX TO DEVELOP TDA...ALREADY ISSUED ONE SEVERE TSTM
WARNING IN NRN NH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
WILL EXTEND THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR PSBL STRONG TSTMS INTO THIS
EVENING AS UPR LVL SUPPORT...SHORT WAVE, JET, AND WIND SHEAR FROM
H9 TO H7...SHOWS UP BEST AT 00Z THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL LKLY PUSH A
PRE-FRONTAL THROUGH THE CWA ...AND THAT COULD SET OFF SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN NRN ZONES. AREAS OF F LIKELY
TO FORM OVERNIGHT...MORE SO IN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW ALOFT WILL KEEP RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK...SO LOOKS TO
BE UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES START OFF AROUND 85 TO 90 OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
SETTLE BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS THROUGH THE WEEK BASED
ON WHAT LOOKS TO BE MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE WEEK.  RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS THROUGH THE WEEK ALSO WITH
DEWPOINTS STARTING IN THE UPPER 60S AND SLOWLY LOWERING TO THE
LOWER 60S BY THE END OF THE WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.  SOME DEGREE
OF OVERNIGHT FOG LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TDA EXCEPT
LWR CONDITIONS WITH ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. BEST CHC FOR TSTMS WILL BE FURTHER N AS ACTIVITY
ALREADY OCCURRING N OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. SPC HAS MOST OF
THE FA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE WX TDA AND THIS EVENING. ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH ABRUPT
WIND SHIFTS...HAIL...AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN.
THE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL DROP OFF TOWARD MIDNIGHT BUT THAT WILL
ALLOW AREAS OF F TO FORM...MOST LIKELY AT LEB.

LONG TERM... DAYTIME VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR/IFR IN SOME DEGREE OF FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...QUICK UPDATE TO FCST TO INPUT
LATEST OBSERVED BUOY DATA. SEAS STILL AROUND 5 FT AT SOME
LOCATIONS. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO A SE SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM
BERTHA...WHICH SHOULD LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR SEAS THRU TDA AND
TNGT SO AT THIS TIME WILL NOT PUT UP AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SW
WINDS TO INCREASE LATER TODAY...ENHANCED SOME BY A DEVELOPING SEA
BREEZE...BUT WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
130 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

MEZ007-012-018>020-023>025-NHZ001>010-013-014-191730-
NORTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN OXFORD-INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-
ANDROSCOGGIN-COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-NORTHERN COOS-
SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-
SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-
INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
130 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 698 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MEZ008-009-013-014-021-022-026>028-191730-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-
SOUTHERN SOMERSET-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
130 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ASSOCIATED COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ150-151-191730-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
130 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PENOBSCOT BAY AND THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ASSOCIATED COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ152>154-191730-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
130 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 698 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA AND THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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