Alert archive / North Carolina / Winter Storm Warnings in 2008

Winter Storm Warning 4, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

November 21, 2008Avery County, Mitchell County, Yancey County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this winter storm warning at Nov 21, 2008, 7:39 AM EST for Avery County, Mitchell County, Yancey County, North Carolina. It was in force for 7 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 21, 2008, 7:39 AM EST (12:39 UTC)
Expired
Nov 21, 2008, 3:00 PM EST
In force
7 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Counties Avery County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Yancey County, NC

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 0.7 hours before the alert went out and 201 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2008-11-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 19 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2008-11-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -111 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
19 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-2 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
683 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
108 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-111 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-98 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS42 KGSP 211239
WSWGSP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
739 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

NCZ033-049-050-211700-
/O.UPG.KGSP.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-081121T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0004.081121T1239Z-081121T1700Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
739 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
NOON EST TODAY...FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE MORNING. COUNTIES REPORT AROUND
TWO INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THESE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PUSH TOTALS TO 3 TO 4 INCHES BEFORE THE SNOW
TAPERS OFF. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL AFFECT MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER.

MOST ROADWAYS ARE ALREADY SNOW COVERED AND VERY SLIPPERY.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS WILL
STEADILY INCREASE BY LATE MORNING TO CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW.
WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN ZERO AND FIVE BELOW IN MANY LOCATIONS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

$$

NCZ048-051>053-058-501-503-505-211700-
/O.CON.KGSP.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-081121T1700Z/
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE
739 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY
FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID MORNING. THEREAFTER THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
RETREAT BACK TO THE FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS ALONG THE
TENNESSEE LINE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES. A LITTLE LESS WILL FALL IN SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS...AND A LITTLE MORE IS POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG
THE TENNESSEE LINE. MANY SECONDARY ROADS ARE ALREADY REPORTED TO
BE SLICK AND SNOW COVERED. DRIVING WILL ONLY BECOME MORE HAZARDOUS
AS TEMPERATURES FALL FURTHER BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY TODAY... WITH HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILLS BETWEEN ZERO AND FIVE BELOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$
2 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS42 KGSP 211655
WSWGSP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1155 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

NCZ053-058-501-503-505-211800-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-081121T1700Z/
BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ASHEVILLE
1155 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS GRAHAM AND BUNCOMBE
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE WESTERN PARTS OF BURKE...MCDOWELL AND
CALDWELL COUNTIES.

A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED.

$$

NCZ033-049-050-212000-
/O.EXT.KGSP.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-081121T2000Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
1155 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FROM YANCEY COUNTY TO AVERY COUNTY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS FROM EASTERN TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AFFECTED
AREA...ADDING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BRING TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO 3 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTIES...WITH VALUES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE.

MANY ROADWAYS REMAIN SNOW COVERED AND VERY SLIPPERY. USE EXTREME
CAUTION IF YOU MUST TRAVEL. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGE TOPS COULD SEE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
THIS MAY KNOCK DOWN A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

$$

NCZ048-051-052-212000-
/O.EXT.KGSP.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-081121T2000Z/
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE
1155 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE SMOKIES TO NEAR HOT SPRINGS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO ARRIVE ON STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
FROM THE SMOKIES THROUGH THE NORTHERN END OF MADISON COUNTY BEFORE
THE SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
BRING STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES.
SHELTERED LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE SEEN CONSIDERABLY
LESS ACCUMULATION...AND NO FURTHER SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM
BRYSON CITY TO WAYNESVILLE.

MANY ROADS REMAIN SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. USE CAUTION IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE GUSTY...WITH
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THESE WINDS COULD BLOW DOWN A FEW TREES OR POWER
LINES.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

GERAPETRITIS
000 
WWUS42 KGSP 211950
WSWGSP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
250 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

...WINTER WEATHER WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA...

.NORTHWEST FLOW MOISTURE IS SLOWLY TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. LITTLE OR NO
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT ROADS WILL REMAIN
SLIPPERY TONIGHT.

NCZ033-049-050-212100-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-081121T2000Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
250 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE SNOW FROM
MELTING. SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL REMAIN VERY SLIPPERY TONIGHT.

$$

NCZ048-051-052-212100-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-081121T2000Z/
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE
250 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SWAIN COUNTY TO MADISON COUNTY.

NORTHWEST FLOW MOISTURE WILL STEADILY DRY UP ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AN ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER OR FLURRY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL REMAIN VERY SLIPPERY...WITH
TEMPERATURES STAYING WELL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT.

$$

HG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Nov 21, 6:35 AM EST, 1 hour 4 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 21, 6:35 AM EST, 1 hour 4 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
635 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY...AND REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED 630 AM...SNOW HAS ENDED OVER THE WRN NC PIEDMONT...SO THE
ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATED 455 AM...I/M GOING TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE BUNCOMBE COUNTY...GRAHAM COUNTY AND THE MOUNTAIN ZONES OF
MCDOWELL...BURKE AND CALDWELL. SEVERAL REPORTS FROM SPOTTERS IN
BUNCOMBE COUNTY...AND THE COUNTY ITSELF...REVEAL THAT SNOW HAS BEEN
HEAVIER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. MANY ROADS ARE SNOW COVERED
AND EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE WEST SIDE OF ASHEVILLE AN INCH OF SNOW
HAS BEEN REPORTED. THIS IS A STRONG COLD ADVECTION EVENT...WHICH
OFTEN DOES PUSH SNOW BEYOND THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS. AS AN
ADVECTIVE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS...SNOW MAY EVEN INCREASE A LITTLE. HOPEFULLY THIS WILL
COVER THINGS...THOUGH WE WILL NEED TO WATCH ACCUMS IN THE NRN MTNS
AS IT ONLY TAKES 3 INCHES IN 12 HOURS TO QUALIFY AS A WINTER STORM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A BAND OF DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENESIS IS ACTING ON MOISTURE POOLED
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...RESULTING IN A BAND OF
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET OVER OUR NE ZONES ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR. THE 750
MB LEVEL SHOWS THE FRONTOGENESIS QUITE WELL ON THE GFS AND NAM. THIS
AREA OF FORCING SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING...WHICH CAN
ALSO BE SEEN ON THE BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR GSO. AFTER 12 UTC THE MODELS
REALLY DRY OUT THE COLUMN...AND WHILE SOME QC FORCING WILL
REMAIN...IT APPEARS THE SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH AREA WILL DRY
OUT...ENDING PCPN. THAT SAID...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THE ROWAN...IREDELL AND DAVIE COUNTY AREAS AS SNOW IS
FALLING A GOOD CLIP IN THIS AREA AND THE SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO
BECOME BETTER DEFINED ON RADAR. ONLY LOOKING FOR AN INCH ON GRASSY
SFC/S...BUT AS OUR WINTER WX CRITERIA IS 1 INCH...THAT WILL DO IT.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR THE MTN COUNTIES THAT
BORDER TN WILL BE LEFT AS IS. I DID UP THE QPF AND HENCE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS A LITTLE. WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING SO QUICKLY THIS
MORNING...SNOW RATIOS WILL BE PUSHING 20:1 BY THE TIME THE PCPN
STARTS TO TAPER OFF IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SO A FEW PLACES MAY
APPROACH 3 INCHES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NRN MTNS WHERE LAPSE RATES
WILL BE STEEPER AND LAYER RH/S HIGHER TO THE NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL
JET CORE.

A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE NC
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THAT ARE NOT ALREADY IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES NOW ENCOMPASS WIND PRODUCTS...WHICH IS WHY
A WIND ADVISORY WON/T BE ISSUED FOR THOSE COUNTIES. I/LL ISSUE A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE FA. AS CAE AND FFC BOTH HAVE
WIND ADVISORIES UP FOR THEIR ENTIRE FA/S...IT WOULD LOOK A LITTLE
ODD NOT TO HAVE ONE UP OVER THE WRN UPSTATE AND NE GA WHERE I HAVE
MY WEAKEST WINDS TODAY. AND EVEN IN THESE ZONES THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE PRETTY GOOD CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAA
AND PRESSURE RISES DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.

THERE ARE ALSO RED FLAG PRODUCTS AND FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS IN
EFFECT. SEE THE FIRE WX PART OF THE DISCUSSION FOR THOSE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM FRIDAY...MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY VERY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A RATHER POTENT SW TROUGH WILL
SWING ACROSS THE AREA W/IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY
DRY...SO INCREASED HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE THE EXTENT OF THE EFFECTS
ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL...AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC...AND A SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL RACE ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY EARLY MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS/NORTHEAST GEORGIA BY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL BE OFF TO A COOL START...ANY PRECIP
SHOULD OCCUR LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO PRECLUDE WINTRY PRECIP
CONCERNS AT ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO
LOOK GOOD FOR A NW FLOW SN EVENT TUE. THE MODELS AGREE WELL WITH
EACH OTHER AND HAVE KEPT GOOD TEMPORAL CONTINUITY THE LAST FEW RUNS.
SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM GOING FORECAST. THE GMOS AND THE HPC
POP GUIDANCE SEEM MUCH TOO LOW AFTER 12Z TUE CONSIDERING THE GOOD
MODEL CONFIDENCE AND THEIR RECENT PERFORMANCES. SO...WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE CHANCE RANGE AND PERHAPS BUMP UP A BIT. QPF STILL WILL BE A
CHALLENGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE MODELS CONTINUE WITH
THE EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF H85 LOW AND GOOD GL MOISTURE FLUX AND
CONSISTENT VECTORING INTO THE NC MTNS. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL S/W LOOKS
TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 18Z TUE...ESP ON THE ECMWF. IN
ANY REGARDS...WILL ANTICIPATE A LINGERING EVENT INTO TUE EVENING AND
PERHAPS EARLY WED MORNING...BUT DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNRISE. THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXT
PERIOD WITH SMALL SCALE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATE
WED INTO THU. THIS SETUP  SHOULD ENABLE MAX TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE TO
NEAR NORMAL BY WEEKS END...AFTER MAXES OF ABOUT 10 F BELOW NORMAL ON
TUE. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT 10 F BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXT AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND ALLOWS GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 0900 UTC.
WINDS AT KCLT...KGSP AND KGMU WILL BE OUT OF THE NNE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...BUT ONCE THE MIXING BECOMES DEEP ENOUGH THEY WILL TURN OUT
OF THE N AND THEN THE NW. A BAND OF LIGHT RA/SN MANY JUST CLIP KCLT
FROM THE N AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. I WON/T CARRY THAT IN THE TAF BUT
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON RADAR TRENDS. WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE QUITE GUSTY AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES. GUSTS OVER 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM KGSP
NORTHWARD. KEPT THE PREVIOUS WINDS PRETTY MUCH IN TACT..THOUGH I DID
RAISE GUSTS TO 30KTS AT KCLT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KAVL WILL
PROBABLY SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THOUGH I DON/T THINK THERE WILL BE ANYTHING BUT A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CIGS OR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. A WHILE

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. CURRENT FORECAST RH VALUES ARE A LITTLE LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY...SATISFYING RED FLAG CRITERIA IN NE GA. OVER SC THE
COMBINATION OF RH AND WIND MEET CRITERIA OVER ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF
THE AREA...ENOUGH TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A FED FLAG WARNING. NOT AS
LARGE AN AREA HITS RED FLAG CRITERIA IN NC THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PIEDMONT AREAS AROUND CHARLOTTE STILL MAY MEET CRITERIA...AND WHILE
THE TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER IN NC THIS AFTERNOON...THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER. THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE KEPT
RUNNING IN NC...AND AN UPGRADE STILL MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN THE
MORNING FOR PARTS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-058-501-503-505.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ053-059-
     063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ035>037-056>058-062-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     SCZ001>014-019.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...MCAVOY
FIRE WEATHER...MCAVOY
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 21, 6:45 AM EST, 54 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001>014-019-221145-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
645 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
   RED FLAG WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ053-221145-
BUNCOMBE-
645 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-221145-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
645 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
   FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ062-221145-
MACON-
645 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ058-221145-
GRAHAM-
645 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ059-063>065-507-509-221145-
NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
645 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-048>052-221145-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
645 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ501-503-505-221145-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
645 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Nov 21, 3:56 AM EST, 3 hours 43 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
356 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-211600-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...
CONCORD...MONROE...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...RUTHERFORD...
COLUMBUS
356 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH
CAROLINA. GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN
ADDITION...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO 30 PERCENT BY 1 PM...AND
REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SUNSET. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVELY LOW FUEL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER.

LANE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 21, 3:33 AM ESTLake Wind AdvisoryGSPAlexander, Avery, Buncombe, Burke, Cabarrus, Caldwell and 22 more14 hr
Nov 21, 3:33 AM ESTWind AdvisoryGSPBuncombe, Burke, Caldwell, Henderson, Jackson, McDowell and 3 more11 hr
Nov 21, 3:53 AM ESTRed Flag WarningGSPAlexander, Cabarrus, Catawba, Cleveland, Davie, Gaston and 5 more14 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in North Carolina, 2008Every winter storm warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.