Alert archive / North Carolina / Wind Advisories in 2008

Wind Advisory 15, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

November 21, 20089 counties in North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this wind advisory at Nov 21, 2008, 3:33 AM EST for 9 counties in North Carolina. It took effect at Nov 21, 2008, 6:00 AM EST. It was in force for 9 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 21, 2008, 3:33 AM EST (08:33 UTC)
In effect from
Nov 21, 2008, 6:00 AM EST
Expired
Nov 21, 2008, 2:41 PM EST
In force
9 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Counties Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Jackson County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Transylvania County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 222 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2008-11-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2008-11-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 61 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2118 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
78 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
61 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
171 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 210833
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
333 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

NCZ053-059-063>065-501-503-505-507-509-211700-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0015.081121T1100Z-081121T2300Z/
BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE
333 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS LAST NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
WILL RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AT TIMES
TODAY. RIDGE TOPS AND SOME NORTHWEST FACING GAPS WILL SEE EVEN 
STRONGER GUSTS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056>058-062-068>072-082-502-
504-506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-211700-
/O.NEW.KGSP.LW.Y.0039.081121T1100Z-081121T2300Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-MACON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...FRANKLIN...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...
CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...
RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...
ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...
GREENWOOD
333 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH AT TIMES BY LATE MORNING. IN ADDITION TO BEING HAZARDOUS TO
BOATERS...WINDS OF THIS SPEED MAY BLOW DOWN A FEW TREES AND POWER
LINES. 

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

$$

MCAVOY
2 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS72 KGSP 211643
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1143 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

NCZ053-059-063>065-501-503-505-507-509-212300-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-081121T2300Z/
BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE
1143 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH AT
TIMES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY COULD SEE A
FEW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. WINDS OF THESE SPEEDS COULD
ALSO BLOW DOWN A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES.

$$

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056>058-062-068>072-082-502-
504-506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-212300-
/O.CON.KGSP.LW.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-081121T2300Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-MACON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...FRANKLIN...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...
CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...
RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...
ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...
GREENWOOD
1143 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. IN ADDITION TO BEING
HAZARDOUS TO BOATERS...WINDS OF THIS SPEED COULD BLOW DOWN LARGE
LIMBS AND WEAK TREES.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

$$
000 
WWUS72 KGSP 211941
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
241 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

NCZ053-059-063>065-501-503-505-507-509-212300-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-081121T2300Z/
/O.EXA.KGSP.LW.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-081121T2300Z/
BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE
241 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WIND SPEEDS COULD BLOW DOWN A FEW LARGE
LIMBS OR WEAK TREES...CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

$$

NCZ033-048>052-212300-
/O.EXA.KGSP.LW.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-081121T2300Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE
241 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT
TIMES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS OF THESE SPEEDS COULD BLOW DOWN
LARGE LIMBS OR WEAK TREES...POSSIBLY CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

$$

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056>058-062-068>072-082-502-
504-506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-212300-
/O.CON.KGSP.LW.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-081121T2300Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-MACON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...FRANKLIN...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...
CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...
RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...
ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...
GREENWOOD
241 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THE WINDS MAY GUST
TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

$$

HG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Nov 21, 3:01 AM EST, 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 21, 3:01 AM EST, 32 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
301 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY...AND REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BAND OF DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENESIS IS ACTING ON MOISTURE POOLED
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...RESULTING IN A BAND OF
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET OVER OUR NE ZONES ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR. THE 750
MB LEVEL SHOWS THE FRONTOGENESIS QUITE WELL ON THE GFS AND NAM. THIS
AREA OF FORCING SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING...WHICH CAN
ALSO BE SEEN ON THE BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR GSO. AFTER 12 UTC THE MODELS
REALLY DRY OUT THE COLUMN...AND WHILE SOME QC FORCING WILL
REMAIN...IT APPEARS THE SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH AREA WILL DRY
OUT...ENDING PCPN. THAT SAID...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THE ROWAN...IREDELL AND DAVIE COUNTY AREAS AS SNOW IS
FALLING A GOOD CLIP IN THIS AREA AND THE SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO
BECOME BETTER DEFINED ON RADAR. ONLY LOOKING FOR AN INCH ON GRASSY
SFC/S...BUT AS OUR WINTER WX CRITERIA IS 1 INCH...THAT WILL DO IT.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR THE MTN COUNTIES THAT
BORDER TN WILL BE LEFT AS IS. I DID UP THE QPF AND HENCE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS A LITTLE. WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING SO QUICKLY THIS
MORNING...SNOW RATIOS WILL BE PUSHING 20:1 BY THE TIME THE PCPN
STARTS TO TAPER OFF IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SO A FEW PLACES MAY
APPROACH 3 INCHES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NRN MTNS WHERE LAPSE RATES
WILL BE STEEPER AND LAYER RH/S HIGHER TO THE NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL
JET CORE.

A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE NC
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THAT ARE NOT ALREADY IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES NOW ENCOMPASS WIND PRODUCTS...WHICH IS WHY
A WIND ADVISORY WON/T BE ISSUED FOR THOSE COUNTIES. I/LL ISSUE A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE FA. AS CAE AND FFC BOTH HAVE
WIND ADVISORIES UP FOR THEIR ENTIRE FA/S...IT WOULD LOOK A LITTLE
ODD NOT TO HAVE ONE UP OVER THE WRN UPSTATE AND NE GA WHERE I HAVE
MY WEAKEST WINDS TODAY. AND EVEN IN THESE ZONES THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE PRETTY GOOD CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAA
AND PRESSURE RISES DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.

THERE ARE ALSO RED FLAG PRODUCTS AND FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS IN
EFFECT. SEE THE FIRE WX PART OF THE DISCUSSION FOR THOSE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM FRIDAY...MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY VERY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A RATHER POTENT SW TROUGH WILL
SWING ACROSS THE AREA W/IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY
DRY...SO INCREASED HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE THE EXTENT OF THE EFFECTS
ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL...AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC...AND A SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL RACE ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY EARLY MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS/NORTHEAST GEORGIA BY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL BE OFF TO A COOL START...ANY PRECIP
SHOULD OCCUR LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO PRECLUDE WINTRY PRECIP
CONCERNS AT ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO
LOOK GOOD FOR A NW FLOW SN EVENT TUE. THE MODELS AGREE WELL WITH
EACH OTHER AND HAVE KEPT GOOD TEMPORAL CONTINUITY THE LAST FEW RUNS.
SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM GOING FORECAST. THE GMOS AND THE HPC
POP GUIDANCE SEEM MUCH TOO LOW AFTER 12Z TUE CONSIDERING THE GOOD
MODEL CONFIDENCE AND THEIR RECENT PERFORMANCES. SO...WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE CHANCE RANGE AND PERHAPS BUMP UP A BIT. QPF STILL WILL BE A
CHALLENGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE MODELS CONTINUE WITH
THE EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF H85 LOW AND GOOD GL MOISTURE FLUX AND
CONSISTENT VECTORING INTO THE NC MTNS. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL S/W LOOKS
TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 18Z TUE...ESP ON THE ECMWF. IN
ANY REGARDS...WILL ANTICIPATE A LINGERING EVENT INTO TUE EVENING AND
PERHAPS EARLY WED MORNING...BUT DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNRISE. THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXT
PERIOD WITH SMALL SCALE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATE
WED INTO THU. THIS SETUP  SHOULD ENABLE MAX TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE TO
NEAR NORMAL BY WEEKS END...AFTER MAXES OF ABOUT 10 F BELOW NORMAL ON
TUE. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT 10 F BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXT AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND ALLOWS GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 0900 UTC.
WINDS AT KCLT...KGSP AND KGMU WILL BE OUT OF THE NNE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...BUT ONCE THE MIXING BECOMES DEEP ENOUGH THEY WILL TURN OUT
OF THE N AND THEN THE NW. A BAND OF LIGHT RA/SN MANY JUST CLIP KCLT
FROM THE N AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. I WON/T CARRY THAT IN THE TAF BUT
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON RADAR TRENDS. WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE QUITE GUSTY AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES. GUSTS OVER 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM KGSP
NORTHWARD. KEPT THE PREVIOUS WINDS PRETTY MUCH IN TACT..THOUGH I DID
RAISE GUSTS TO 30KTS AT KCLT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KAVL WILL
PROBABLY SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THOUGH I DON/T THINK THERE WILL BE ANYTHING BUT A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CIGS OR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. A WHILE

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. CURRENT FORECAST RH VALUES ARE A LITTLE LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY...SATISFYING RED FLAG CRITERIA IN NE GA. OVER SC THE
COMBINATION OF RH AND WIND MEET CRITERIA OVER ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF
THE AREA...ENOUGH TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A FED FLAG WARNING. NOT AS
LARGE AN AREA HITS RED FLAG CRITERIA IN NC THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PIEDMONT AREAS AROUND CHARLOTTE STILL MAY MEET CRITERIA...AND WHILE
THE TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER IN NC THIS AFTERNOON...THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER. THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE KEPT
RUNNING IN NC...AND AN UPGRADE STILL MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN THE
MORNING FOR PARTS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NCZ053-059-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NCZ035>037-056>058-062-068>072-082-502-504-
     506-508-510.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>052.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR SCZ001>014-019.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...MCAVOY
FIRE WEATHER...MCAVOY
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 20, 3:12 PM EST, 12 hours 21 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
312 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008

GAZ010-017-NCZ053-058-059-062>065-507-509-SCZ001>003-212015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
312 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-SCZ004>014-019-212015-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
312 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-212015-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
312 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-048>052-212015-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
312 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM
EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ501-503-505-212015-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
312 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

07

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 21, 3:33 AM ESTLake Wind AdvisoryGSPAlexander, Avery, Buncombe, Burke, Cabarrus, Caldwell and 22 more14 hr
Nov 21, 3:53 AM ESTRed Flag WarningGSPAlexander, Cabarrus, Catawba, Cleveland, Davie, Gaston and 5 more14 hr
Nov 21, 7:39 AM ESTWinter Storm WarningGSPAvery, Mitchell, Yancey7 hr

Nearby

Wind Advisories in North Carolina, 2008Every wind advisory in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.