Severe Thunderstorm Warning 287, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
447 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE INTERSTATE 77
CORRIDOR...WHERE EASTWARD MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENCOUNTER EVEN
GREATER INSTABLITY. WIND GUSTS TO 37 KNOTS HAVE BEEN REPROTED A TWO
AIRFILEDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. POPS WILL BE RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE
WATCH AREA.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACRS THE
MTNS AND INTO THE FTHLS AND PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
BROADLY CONVERGENT LLVL FLOW LINGERS. LOCALLY HVY RAIN IS LIKELY AS
OBSERVED PWATS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL. HIGH
FREEZING LVLS/WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT LARGE HAIL THREAT
TO ISOLATED PENNIES...BUT 20-25 KTS OF WESTERLY MID-LVL FLOW COULD
PROMOTE MULTICELL DEVELOPMENT AND A WET MICROBURST THREAT. DESPITE
WEAK AND SUBTLE SOURCES OF FORCING FOR TONIGHT...WITH BAND OF
INCREASING LAYER RH SAGGING SWD INTO THE CWFA...WILL KEEP SHOTGUN
CHANCE POPS GOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FCST SNDGS ON THURSDAY
INDICATING LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT MOIST AIRMASS. AS
PERTURBATIONS RIPPLE EASTWARD WITHIN THE WEAK TO MODERATE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT... EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH A FEW OF THESE MARGINALLY SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY EVENING WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO
OUR NORTH. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING... BUT DRIER
AIR FILTERING INTO CWA FROM THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN DECREASING POPS
WITH TIME OVERNIGHT. BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS... ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES... TO RETAIN LOW CHANCES IN THAT AREA. DURING
DAY FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTO MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER... FRONTAL BOUNDARY
JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DEEPER MOISTURE AND FAIRLY
HIGH CAPES PRIMARILY SOUTHERN SECTIONS PER THE GFS. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND WEST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN NORTHEAST. ON
SATURDAY... DRY AND FOR THE MOST PART STABLE AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTHWEST ZONES AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND HPC CONTINUE TO
INDICATE FAST WESTERLIES AND SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
BE CONFINED TO CANADA AND NORTHERN TIER STATES. PRIMARY FEATURE
AFFECTING CWA WILL BE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM DEEP LOW
MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA. POPS WILL BE INCREASED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT TO ACCOMPANY FRONT AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING MONDAY...
SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MIDWEST BUILDS
INTO EASTERN STATES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES EXTENDING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM FROM KCLT BUILDING...AND MVFR LOKKING MORE
LIKELY THERE. SC TAF SITES GETTING BEHIND WORST WEATHER...BUT
ANOTHER ROUND FROM GA POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING. KHKY ALSO GETTING
BEHIND WORST WEATHER. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROAHCING
KAVL FROM THE WEST.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WILL ADVERTISE CB/VCTS AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS AND
AMEND AS NECESSARY TO RAISE THREAT. MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A
LINGERING SHOWER/TSTM CHANCE TO REMAIN INTO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT HIGH LVLS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO PROBABILITIES
AT ANY SPECIFIC POINT WILL PREVENT INCLUSION OF VCTS/CB PAST
LATE EVENING. SPOTTY MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SEEN EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE DIURNAL AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FRIDAY
THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CSH/JAT
SHORT TERM...LGL
LONG TERM...LGL
AVIATION...CSH/JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
340 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-101000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
340 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
GEORGIA. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PENNY SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY. A
FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE... PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LGL

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