Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
256 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACRS THE
MTNS AND INTO THE FTHLS AND PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
BROADLY CONVERGENT LLVL FLOW LINGERS. LOCALLY HVY RAIN IS LIKELY AS
OBSERVED PWATS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL. HIGH
FREEZING LVLS/WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT LARGE HAIL THREAT
TO ISOLATED PENNIES...BUT 20-25 KTS OF WESTERLY MID-LVL FLOW COULD
PROMOTE MULTICELL DEVELOPMENT AND A WET MICROBURST THREAT. DESPITE
WEAK AND SUBTLE SOURCES OF FORCING FOR TONIGHT...WITH BAND OF
INCREASING LAYER RH SAGGING SWD INTO THE CWFA...WILL KEEP SHOTGUN
CHANCE POPS GOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FCST SNDGS ON THURSDAY
INDICATING LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT MOIST AIRMASS. AS
PERTURBATIONS RIPPLE EASTWARD WITHIN THE WEAK TO MODERATE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT... EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH A FEW OF THESE MARGINALLY SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY EVENING WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO
OUR NORTH. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING... BUT DRIER
AIR FILTERING INTO CWA FROM THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN DECREASING POPS
WITH TIME OVERNIGHT. BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS... ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES... TO RETAIN LOW CHANCES IN THAT AREA. DURING
DAY FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTO MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER... FRONTAL BOUNDARY
JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DEEPER MOISTURE AND FAIRLY
HIGH CAPES PRIMARILY SOUTHERN SECTIONS PER THE GFS. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND WEST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN NORTHEAST. ON
SATURDAY... DRY AND FOR THE MOST PART STABLE AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTHWEST ZONES AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND HPC CONTINUE
TO INDICATE FAST WESTERLIES AND SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BE CONFINED TO CANADA AND NORTHERN TIER STATES. PRIMARY
FEATURE AFFECTING CWA WILL BE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM
DEEP LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA. POPS WILL BE INCREASED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO ACCOMPANY FRONT AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING
MONDAY... SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MIDWEST BUILDS INTO EASTERN STATES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
GREAT LAKES EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEASTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WILL ADVERTISE CB/VCTS AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS AND
AMEND AS NECESSARY TO RAISE THREAT. MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A
LINGERING SHOWER/TSTM CHANCE TO REMAIN INTO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT HIGH LVLS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO PROBABILITIES
AT ANY SPECIFIC POINT WILL PREVENT INCLUSION OF VCTS/CB PAST
LATE EVENING. SPOTTY MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SEEN EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE DIURNAL AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FRIDAY
THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...LGL
LONG TERM...LGL
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
150 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-101800-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
150 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TO THE EXTENT
THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE HAIL TO SIZE OF PENNIES AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF THEM SEVERE...WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
155 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2008

NCZ035-036-056-501-502-504-091900-
ALEXANDER-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-CATAWBA-GREATER BURKE-GREATER
CALDWELL-IREDELL-
155 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALEXANDER...CALDWELL...NORTHERN
BURKE...NORTHWESTERN CATAWBA AND WESTERN IREDELL COUNTIES THROUGH 300
PM EDT...

AT 148 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES WEST OF
KINGS CREEK TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF MORGANTON...MOVING EAST AT 16
MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  KINGS CREEK BY 200 PM EDT.
  MORGANTON BY 205 PM EDT.
  HUDSON BY 220 PM EDT.
  LAKE RHODHISS BY 230 PM EDT.
  VALDESE BY 235 PM EDT.
  RUTHERFORD COLLEGE BY 240 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
223 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2008

NCZ053-065-507>510-091930-
BUNCOMBE-EASTERN POLK-GREATER RUTHERFORD-HENDERSON-POLK
MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
223 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL RUTHERFORD...NORTHERN
HENDERSON...NORTHWESTERN POLK AND SOUTHERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH
330 PM EDT...

AT 218 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF BAT
CAVE TO 5 MILES WEST OF AVERY CREEK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  FLETCHER BY 240 PM EDT.
  BAT CAVE BY 250 PM EDT.
  CHIMNEY ROCK BY 300 PM EDT.
  LAKE ADGER BY 330 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2008

NCZ501-502-091930-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
230 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS
CALDWELL COUNTY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...

AT 230 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CALDWELL COUNTY. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AT RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF PATTERSON
THROUGH 4 PM. THIS WILL CREATE RAPID RISES ALONG STREAMS AND
CREEKS...INCLUDING BUFFALO CREEK AND THE YADKIN RIVER.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
236 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2008

SCZ001-002-005-091930-
GREATER PICKENS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
236 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PICKENS AND NORTHEASTERN
OCONEE COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 230 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF NINE TIMES...OR 11 MILES WEST OF
PICKENS...MOVING EAST AT 11 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NINE TIMES BY 245 PM EDT.
  PICKENS BY 325 PM EDT.
  6 MILES NORTH OF LIBERTY BY 330 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
259 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2008

NCZ507>510-091930-
EASTERN POLK-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
259 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT POLK AND RUTHERFORD COUNTIES
THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 252 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAKE LURE...OR 12 MILES WEST
OF RUTHERFORDTON...MOVING EAST AT 17 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CHIMNEY
  ROCK...BOSTIC...TRYON...THERMAL CITY...SUNSHINE...SPINDALE...
  RUTHERFORDTON...MILL SPRING...LAKE LURE...LAKE ADGER...HARRIS...
  FOREST CITY...ELLENBORO...COLUMBUS...CLIFFSIDE AND ALEXANDER MILLS.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
304 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2008

NCZ503>506-091930-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
304 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BURKE AND MCDOWELL COUNTIES
THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 301 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ASHFORD TO 3 MILES WEST OF GLENWOOD...MOVING EAST AT 18 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RUTHERFORD
  COLLEGE...LAKE JAMES...NEBO...WOODLAWN...VALDESE...TABLE ROCK...
  SUGAR HILL...PLEASANT GROVE...MORGANTON...MARION...ICARD...
  GLENWOOD...GLEN ALPINE...FERO...DYSARTSVILLE...DREXEL...CONNELLY
  SPRINGS AND ASHFORD.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

RB