Severe Thunderstorm Warning 260, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1229 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST IN A SERIES OF VORT MAXES CURRENTLY ROUNDING BASE OF S/WV
AIDED IN DRIVING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACRS THE NW NC PIEDMONT ATTM. NEXT
IMPULSE...POSSIBLY THE REMNANTS OF MIDWEST MCS ACTIVITY...
ENCROACHING UPON EASTERN TENN. ALONG AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE...
WOULD EXPECT CURRENT TSTMS TO EXPAND IN CVRG TOWARD THE NC MTNS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GENERAL FLOW REGIME REMAINING FAVORABLE
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN THE ABOVE NORMAL PWAT
VALUES....ELSEWHERE ACRS THE CWFA INTO THIS EVENING. DESPITE
MOIST PROFILES ON AREA SNDGS...AREAS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL AID IN THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED SVR STORMS PRODUCING
PENNY SIZED HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE ENOUGH OF THE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THE MAIN CONCERN
IS THE TIMING. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE QUIET FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING PUTS A DAMPER ON
THINGS...BUT EVENTUALLY DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY DROPPING DOWN FROM NW LATE WEDNESDAY...WHEREAS THE GFS
MOVES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH WED NITE. THINK THE MOST REASONABLE
SCENARIO IS FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TO THE NW ON WEDNESDAY CLOSER
TO THE BETTER FORCING...AND PROPAGATE DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WOULD MEAN THE NAM WOULD BE RIGHT IN EFFECT...EVEN IF THE REAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE N. ASSUMING THIS WORKS OUT...SOME LINGERING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD PERSIST INTO THE LATE NIGHT OVER THE
PIEDMONT...BEFORE DYING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. HAVE RAISED PRECIP
CHANCE ABOUT 10 PERCENT ACCORDINGLY. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
FIRE UP AGAIN NEAR THIS BOUNDARY SETTLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY. TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON THE
GUIDANCE TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...THE LATEST GFS CONTINUES THE TREND OF PUSHING
A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO THAT MODEL ACTUALLY HAS A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT WEAKER WITH A SURFACE HIGH MOVING PAST TO THE NORTH
SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP
A CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN PART ON FRIDAY. THE POP WILL BE
LOWERED FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING. OTHER THAN
THAT...THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WILL BE TO THE TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
GIVEN THE WARMER TREND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACRS THE MTNS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE EXPANDING IN CVRG ACRS THE FA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
EARLY EVENING. EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF STORMS WILL LIMIT
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY SPECIFIC TERMINAL TO JUST A VCTS
FOR NOW. EXPECTED DIURNAL NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD ALLOW ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING. 12 UTC MOS GUIDANCE LIMITS ANY EARLY
MORNING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO JUST KAVL AND BASED ON PERSISTENCE WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION FOR THE TIME BEING.

OUTLOOK...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE THRU SATURDAY...AS SFC RIDGE REMAINS
OFFSHORE BRINGING MOISTURE UP OVER OUR REGION. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITH ASSOC HAZARDS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CSH/JDL
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
600 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-091000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
600 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
SHOULD BE GREATER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED. A FEW OF THE STORMS
SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO GROW LARGE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO VERIFY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

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