Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
228 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND SETTLE SOUTH OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ERODING LOW CLOUDS HAS KEPT PIEDMONT DESTABILIZATION AT BAY THROUGH
18 UTC WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUDS REMAINING SHALLOW ELSEWHERE...POSSIBLY
DUE TO BEING IN NVA REGIME. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...WITH
VORTICITY ADVECTION BECOME MORE NEUTRAL AND THE APPROACH OF WEAK
ENERGY FROM ERN TENN...SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET SOME TSTMS GOING. STILL
WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE STRONGEST AND MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE DEEP RH...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND
VORT ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF S/WV. JUST ISOLATED CHANCES WILL BE
CARRIED ELSEWHERE GIVEN RATHER DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE INTO THE
EVENING. OVERNIGHT...IT REMAINS INCONCLUSIVE WHETHER AFOREMENTIONED
ERN TENN VORT WILL BE ABLE TO TRIGGER ANY ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES
EAST OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL ADVERTISE JUST DEBRIS CLOUDS...
AREAS OF FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH MIN TEMPS WITHIN A
CATEGORY OF EARLY JULY NORMALS. DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY ADDITIONAL
ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH CYCLONIC
CURVATURE ALOFT ADVERTISED...ESPECIALLY ACRS NC MTNS...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED TSTMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY TYPICAL JULY WEATHER IS IN
STORE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES TO TRAVERSE THE AREA. ALSO...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BRING
A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION BY LATE WEEK WITH THE NAM ABOUT
12-18HRS FASTER THAN THE GFS. WITH NEGLIGIBLE UPPER SUPPORT WILL FAVOR
THE SLOWER GFS WHICH BRINGS THE BOUNDARY INTO THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THU AND THEN ALLOWS IT TO SETTLE S OF THE FORECAST AREA THU NIGHT
WHERE IT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH FRI NIGHT. IN REGARD TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD OCCUR WED AND THU WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
ON WED AND OVER THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AREAS ON THU. FRI SHOULD SEE
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY....BUT CANT RULE OUT AT
LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL HAVE TO
MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRI AS WELL IN THE GRIDS. USED A
MOS BLEND FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS TUE NIGHT THROUGHT WED NIGHT AND THEN
GMOS/HPC. TEMPS LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGHT THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 215 PM
MONDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WITH BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING SOME INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED GENERALLY AROUND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT
THE END OF THIS MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. A FEW MINOR WAVES ARE
FORECAST TO PASS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER SOUTH SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN THE RIDGE BUILDS AND LOWERS THE CONVECTION.
THE BEST CHANCE OF HAVING CONVECTION EACH DAY WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN LATE DAY
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GFS WAS TRYING
TO SQUEEZE A TROUGH DOWN OVER THE UPPER SOUTHEAST.
THEREFORE...DECIDED TO STICK WITH GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL LIMIT TSTM CHANCES...IN THE FORM OF VCTS...TO JUST KCLT/KHKY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THESE TERMINALS WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE UPPER
SUPPORT AND BETTER MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...VFR LVL CU FIELD WILL
BE THE MAIN SKY CONDITION ACRS THE CWFA. OVERNIGHT...VBSY
RESTRICTIONS LOOK PROBABLE ONCE AGAIN ACRS MUCH OF THE FA AND
WILL INTRODUCE MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS. WEAK SW FLOW WITHIN
MOIST BLYR COULD ALLOW IFR LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED ONLY FEW-SCT WHERE APPLICABLE.

OUTLOOK...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE THRU FRIDAY...AS SFC RIDGE REMAINS
OFFSHORE BRINGING MOISTURE UP OVER OUR REGION. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITH ASSOC HAZARDS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
551 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-081000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
551 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS NUMEROUS AS THE
LAST FEW DAYS...THOSE STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
GREATER POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL. THE PIEDMONT OF THE
CAROLINAS HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW SEVERE THUNDERRSTORMS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TO HELP VERIFY WARNINGS AGAIN TODAY.

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1230 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 ENE WOODRUFF          34.77N 81.94W
07/06/2008                   SPARTANBURG        SC   PUBLIC

            A CUSTOMER AT THE PAULINE POST OFFICE SAID SHE HAD TREES
            DOWN IN HER AREA NOT FAR FROM INTERSTATE 26 IN SOUTHERN
            SPARTANBURG COUNTY.

0445 PM     HAIL             6 NE COLUMBUS           35.31N 82.13W
07/06/2008  E0.75 INCH       POLK               NC   PUBLIC

            BRIEF PENNY SIZED HAIL FELL ON TONEY ROAD TO THE EAST OF
            MILL SPRING. ALSO REPORTS OF SCATTERED LIMBS OR EVEN
            SMALL TREES DOWN IN THE AREA.

&&

OUTLAW